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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

That's not a bad rank at all for someone using only 3 out of 6 chips!

FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

But what if we look instead of average ownership of just the *10* most popular players? Now E64 and Content Creators league are *much* more concentrated than AE64 👀

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

I was talking about ownership of players. This is the updated table including E64: average ownership rate of the 30 most popular players is almost identical between AE64 and E64 (44.27% versus 44.37%)

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

I'd be curious to see how other gameweeks look like, but would need to scrape data from official website for that.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

But comparison is not apples to apples, because for the large leagues you are comparing the selected group of highly performing managers

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Average ownership of top 30 most owned players (by top 50 ranked managers) in GW38 for selected leagues, from @fplgameweek.com. Turns out that analytics leagues (AE64, AEQ64, BW, FPLOptimized) had slightly more concentrated ownership than others

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Based on what I'm seeing from captaincy polls, going Isak (c) over Salah (c) may be the best way to widen your outcome distribution. Not for the faint of heart, though...

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

I'd be curious to see a simulation that quantifies the rank gain from pursuing a defensive double or triple up versus going for a 10% owned versus a 50% owned asset

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW23: 61 all out, OR 109-->115. Passing on Retegui+Zaccagni in previous GW proving to be very costly

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy updated fixture ticker: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Does not reflect possible doubles yet (FIO-INT in 24, BOL-MIL in 26). Keep an eye on announcements later today

docs.google.com

Serie A Fantasy 2024-2025 Fixture Ticker (pinned)

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

If Ful-Tot is in 25, 33 would have only two teams doubling, NEW and CRY (unless some of the GW34 blanks slot into it). Seems manageable.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

TC24 on Salah and then AM25 (after knowing whether DGW25 is on) is also an option.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

It would be close, but keep in mind that DGW25 implies that Tottenham advances to CC final, so no LIV blank in 29, no LIV double in 33. You lose a big chunk of EV relative to TC24 on Salah.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Optimal AM strategy very team dependent: TC still available, already 3 Liv in squad: TC24 on Salah, AM in 31 or 35/36 TC still available, only 2 Liv in squad (or 3 LIV and lots of FTs) : maybe AM24 if provisional announcement of DGW25 TC played already: AM24 defo an option

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

GW24 is finally upon us, and managers can activate their Assistant Manager Chip. Check here my updated AM Chip Planning Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager Chip Planning Spreadsheet

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW22: 59 all out, OR 86 --> 100. 12 week green streak over, we go again in 23

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

GW23: 54 all out, 1.6M -->1.8M. When is it gonna end, Robbie?

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Keep in mind that there is a decent chance that GW24 or GW25 (or both!) will be doubles (make-up games for Fiorentina-Inter and Bologna-Milan). Inter almost surely through as top-8 in CL, so both midweeks free. Milan with a ~70% chance of making top 8.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Updated Assistant Manager Chip Planning spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Some interesting moves in GW26: Moyes (vs MUN) now only 9% probability of table bonus, but Howe (vs NFO) up to 19% prob of bonus, EV with bonus 11.99 (!)

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager Chip Planning Spreadsheet

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW21: 78 all out, OR 93-->86. Still slowly climbing.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

GW22: 48 all out, OR, 1.64M --> 1.58M. New season objective: top 400K, roughly the average of my last 5 casual seasons before becoming an engaged manager 😔

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

GW21: 61 all out, 1.5M --> 1.6M. This season is humbling.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

GW20: 64(-4)=60 all out. OR 1.4M -->1.5M. Still meandering aimlessly in the mid 1M ranks. Would be nice to get some players that actually do points. We go again in 21.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

#SerieAFantasy GW19: 65(-5)=60, OR 173-->132. Not the best of weeks, but enough people were not paying attention to the schedule to get a decent green. We move

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Of course, everything is subject to change as the table evolves. I will hopefully update the spreadsheet after every GW. Happy planning! (7/7)

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

You could of course swerve to Arsenal (at home vs WHU), but there may be better options (6/.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Key reason is that there aren't that many appealing matchups in GW26. These are the best two. (5/.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Based on the current spreadsheet, I'm not too sanguine on AM24/25 (4/.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

I think one should want to jump on the orange matchups: these are typically ones where the gap in rank between the teams is not large, and the lower ranked team plays at home. Chance for high EV! (3/.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Dark Green 🟩🟩: Strong favorites with high EV with no bonus Light green🟢⚪️: High EV with no bonus, and very likely that bonus will be active Orange🟠🟠: High EV with bonus, and somewhat likely that bonus will be active (2/.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

The key point of the spreadsheet is to identify which games are likely to yield a large AM EV. These are highlighted in color in the spreadsheet.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

AM Chip Planning Spreadsheet, updated after GW19: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Some comments to follow

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager Chip Planning Spreadsheet

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

GW19: 87 all out, OR 1.7M --> 1.4M. Small steps, I guess. We move.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

#SerieAFantasy GW18: 69 all out, OR 185-->173. Kean benching hurts, but a green is a green. We move.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

GW18: 54 all out, 1.5M-->1.7M. Digging ever deeper, contemplating a big hit to get rid of some of the garbage polluting my team

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Thoughts and feedback welcome. Enjoy!

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Orange: expected points conditional on bonus >8, probability of bonus between 0.3 and 0.7

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Light green: expected points conditional on bonus > 8, and probability of bonus >0.7 (Example: Crystal Palace v AVL in GW27)

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Now with three color codes for targetable matches: dark green = strong favorites at home with Expected points conditional on no bonus > 8 (Example: Chelsea va SOU in GW27)

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Updated AM Chip Planning Spreadsheet, with results and league tables after GW17: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager Chip Planning Spreadsheet

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

#SerieAFantasy GW17: 74 all out, OR 217-->185. Was hoping for more after the Rrahmani early goal, but still a green, and first time in top 200. We move.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

GW17: 72 all out, 1.47M --> 1.54M. Salah and Solanke transform what would have been an anti-FPL Hall-of-Fame-worthy gameweek into just a regular boring red arrow. We go again in 18.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

I will hopefully updated it every week as we get more information about likely league positions.

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FPLFutbolmetrix @fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

The link to the spreadsheet (pre-GW17 results) is here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

Assistant Manager Chip Planning Spreadsheet

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