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20 years of Bears @ Packers point spreads CHI (Tyson Bagent) -2.5 GB -6.5 GB -10 GB -2.5 GB -10.5 GB -11.5 GB -7.5 GB -4 GB -7 GB -7.5 GB -7.5 GB -7.5 GB -8 GB -10 GB -5 GB -13 GB -10 GB -4.5 GB -3.5 GB -3

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 5h

Most 3 & out drives in 2026 Eagles - 14 Vikings - 14 Titans - 14 Texans - 13 Steelers - 13 Least 3 & out drives in 2026 Jaguars - 4 Cowboys - 4 Bears - 4 Bills - 4 (3x against NE) Falcons - 4

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 6h

Patriots pass rush will be on full display this week. Key to the game. Pass block win rate > 60% Raiders 50-59% 15 teams 40-49% 13 teams 30-39% 2 teams < 30% Packers

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 6h

NFL strength of victory above .500 (the real ones) • Jaguars • Rams • Patriots • Commanders NFL strength of victory below .150 • Raiders • Packers • Colts • Bengals • Eagles • Cowboys • Jets • Cardinals

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 7h

Highest odds to be the first head coach fired in 2026 1. Todd Bowels (TB) 2. Aaron Glenn (NYJ) 3. Jim Harbaugh (LAC) 4. Nick Sirianni (PHI) 5. Matt LaFleur (GB)

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 7h

Week 5 most/least Vegas implied team totals 1. Lions 2. Rams 3. Cowboys 4. Bills 5. Cardinals 26. Browns 27. Chargers 28. Dolphins 29. Eagles 30. Titans

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 18h

Teams who are undefeated at home in 2026 Patriots Browns Steelers Jaguars Chiefs Broncos Giants Vikings Lions 49ers Seahawks

061

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 19h

Without AJ Brown on the field, Jalen Hurts is 2-9 in his career when playing against teams who finished the season with a winning record. His 2 wins came against Taysom Hill & Trevor Siemian.

042

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 19h

EPA per rush against 8+ box defenders 1. Jaylen Warren 0.36 2. Brian Robinson 0.33 3. Chris Rodriguez 0.21 4. Jonathan Taylor 0.19 5. Kenneth Walker 0.18 44. Quinshon Judkins -0.50 45. Marshawn Lloyd -0.61 46. Treveyon Henderson -0.67 *min 25 total attempts

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 19h

Success rate against 8+ box defenders 1. Bijan Robinson - 64.5% 2. Chris Rodriguez - 60.00% 3. Jaylen Warren - 57.9% 4. Derrick Henry - 56.8% 5. James Cook - 53.7% 43. Quinshon Judkins - 23.1% 44. Devon Achane - 21.4% 45. Marshawn Lloyd - 14.3% 46. Treveyon Henderson - 7.7% *min 25 total attempts

020

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Undefeated against 2025 non-playoff teams 49ers Bengals Bills Browns Chiefs Eagles Falcons Giants Jaguars Lions Patriots Rams Vikings

020

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Highest graded rookie pass rushers, 2026 (round drafted) per PFF 1. Gabe Jacas (2nd) 2. Zion Young (2nd) 3. Akheem Mesidor (1st) 4. R Mason Thomas (2nd) 5. David Bailey (1st) 6. Dani Dennis-Sutton (4th) 7. Romello Height (3rd) 8. TJ Parker (2nd) 9. Wesley Bailey (UDFA) 10. Cashius Howell (2nd)

0164

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Contract year WRs on losing teams who may be trade targets • Xavier Hutchinson • Kayshon Boutte 🤦🏻‍♂️ • Treylon Burks • Dyami Brown

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Kayshon Boutte in 2025 2.4 receptions per game 39.4 receiving yards per game 0.4 touchdowns per game Romeo Doubs in 2026 3.0 receptions per game 50.8 receiving yards per game 0.5 touchdowns per game

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The game winning Efton Chism TD was an exceptional example of body extension and controlling the ball through the catch and into the ground. In my opinion, Maye’s off-platform throw was even more impressive.

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Oldest starting QBs going into week 5 • Aaron Rodgers 42y 308d • Matt Stafford 38y 241d • Kirk Cousins 38y 48d • Geno Smith 35y 361d Youngest starting QBs going into week 5 • Jalon Daniels 23y 342d • Drake Maye 24y 37d • Cam Ward 24y 134d • CJ Stroud 25y 3d

0102

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Percentage of pass rush snaps resulting in QB pressure in week 4 List of top-5 highest paid (healthy) pass rushers >> Maxx Crosby - 19.3 >> Aidan Hutchinson - 17.1 >> Will Anderson - 14.3 >> Danielle Hunter - 10.0 >> TJ Watt - 7.4 List of Gabe Jacas >> Gabe Jacas - 21.4

051

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

QB passer success rate on teams .500 and above 58-61 % - Purdy 54-57 % - Lamar 50-53 % - Goff - Lawrence 46-49 % - Darnold - Dak - Burrow - Caleb - Mahomes - Watson - Stafford - Maye - Allen - Cousins 42-45 % - Young 38-41 % - Nix - Jones - Love - Rodgers - Hurts 34-37 % - Kyler

020

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Patriots pass coverage efficiency against the Bills Marcus Jones ⬇️ 33.3% Craig Woodson 33.3% Kevin Byard 25.0% Charles Woods 25.0% Carlton Davis ⬇️ 14.3%

051

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Patriots defensive pass rush efficiency against the Bills Gabe Jacas ⬆️ 21.4% Joshua Farmer ⬆️ 16.7% Elijah Ponder ⬇️ 13.0% Dremont Jones 7.4% Cory Durden ⬆️ 6.3% Milton Williams 3.3% Christian Elliss ⬇️ 0% Daquan Jones ⬇️ 0% Leonard Taylor 0% *min 5 pass rushes

081

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Patriots offensive line protection efficiency against the Bills Morgan Moses ⬆️ 97.6% Jared Wilson ⬇️ 95.2% Alijah Vera-Tucker ⬇️ 92.9% Ben Brown ↔️ 92.9% Will Campbell ⬇️ 85.7% *min 10 pass blocks

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Since 2020, there have been 7 games where a road team with a losing record was the favorite against a home team with a winning record 2020 - MIN @ CHI 2021 - MIN @ CAR 2021 - LV @ CLE 2023 - LAC @ NYJ 2024 - NYJ @ PIT* 2026 - GB @ NYJ 2026 - LAR @ PHI (this week) *Only home team who won

011

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Fantasy football advice givers: "Stashing mid players will win you games during bye weeks" "Roster top-end backup RBs in case of injuries" "Add the rookie WRs for their mid-year breakout" "You can't drop that guy even though he's injured" Comissioners: Changes bench setting to 40

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Impact of pre-snap motion and play action in 2026 I set the benchmark for offenses running pre-snap motion 50% of plays and play action 15% of plays 88.9% (8/9) of teams meeting the benchmark are scoring over 29 PPG 65.2% (15/23) of teams not meeting the benchmark are scoring under 28 PPG

021

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Highest percentage of offensive drives ending in a turnover in the last 10 years 1. Patriots (2026) - 26.7% 2. Falcons (2026) - 22.2% 3. Browns (2017) - 21.0% 4. Saints (2026) - 20.6% 5. Buccaneers (2019) - 20.2%

012

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1st round QBs traded after less than 4 years • JJ McCarthy • Kenny Pickett • Zach Wilson • Justin Fields • Mac Jones • Trey Lance • Sam Darnold • Josh Rosen • Blaine Gabbert

261

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Player age during their first 4,800+ total yards season 23 - Drake Maye Patrick Mahomes Matthew Stafford Justin Herbert 24 - Josh Allen 25 - Deshaun Watson Jameis Winston 26 - Dak Prescott 27 - Lamar Jackson 28 - Joe Burrow Kirk Cousins Aaron Rodgers 29 - Baker Mayfield

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Side-by-side comparison of Caleb Lomu (NE - 28th overall pick) and Max Iheanachor (PIT - 21st overall pick) in their first meaningful snaps as rookies Pass block snaps Caleb - 14 Max - 37 QB hurry rate Caleb - 14.3% Max - 5.4% QB hit rate Caleb - 0% Max - 0% QB sack rate Caleb - 0% Max - 0%

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Patriots pass coverage efficiency against Jaguars Christian Gonzalez 50.0% Jaylen Reed 50.0% Marcus Jones 40.0% Carlton Davis 16.7% *min 4 targets

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Patriots defensive pass rush efficiency against Jaguars Christian Elliss 25.0% Elijah Ponder 16.7% DaQuan Jones 10.0% Gabe Jacas 6.9% Christian Barmore 5.6% Jaylen Reed 0% Cory Durden 0% Joshua Farmer 0% *min 5 pass rushes

031

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Patriots offensive line protection efficiency against Jaguars Alijah Vera-Tucker 100% Will Campbell 100% Jared Wilson 100% Greg Van Roten 92.3% Walter Rouse 87.0% Morgan Moses 86.4% Caleb Lomu 85.7% *min 10 pass blocks

082

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Yards per carry when their team is losing: Rhamondre Stevenson - 10.0 Kaelon Black - 6.4 Rachaad White - 5.8 Bucky Irving - 5.5 Bijan Robinson - 5.46 Kenneth Walker - 5.42 James Cook - 5.0 Chuba Hubbard - 5.0 Kyle Monangai - 4.89 D'Andre Swift - 4.79 *min 10 total attempts

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Most yards after catch per reception since 2024 1. Marvin Mims - 2024 - 12.2 2. Tylan Wallace - 2024 - 11.5 3. Tucker Kraft - 2025 - 10.8 4. Travis Kelce - 2026 - 10.8 5. Drake London - 2026 - 10.1 *min 10 receptions

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Catch percentage above 70% and target share above 20% - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Justin Jefferson - Amon-Ra St Brown - CeeDee Lamb - Chris Olave - Jalen Coker - Nico Collins - Kalif Raymond - Zay Flowers - Garrett Wilson - KC Concepcion

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Average depth of target 11 - Lamar, Jameis, Allen, Stafford 10 - Lawrence, Herbert, Love, Young, Willis 9 - Hurts, Daniels, Baker, Cousins, Stroud, Dart 8 - Wentz, Dak, Rodgers, Shough, Caleb, Maye, Lock 7 - Goff, Geno, Nix 6 - Watson, Ward, Burrow, Brissett, Purdy, Jones 5 - Mahomes 👀, Rush

041

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

QBs who have had the largest change in their time to throw in 2026 compared to 2025 Taking longer to throw - Jayden Daniels - Malik Willis - Jalen Hurts - Caleb Williams - Geno Smith Faster to throw - Jordan Love - Jacoby Brissett - Brock Purdy - Joe Burrow - Patrick Mahomes

011

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Touchdown percentage below 20% when passing the ball inside the redzone - Aaron Rodgers - Caleb Williams - Malik Willis - Lamar Jackson

010

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Touchdown percentage above 40% when passing the ball inside the redzone - Jaxson Dart - Dak Prescott - Matthew Stafford - Justin Herbert - Kirk Cousins - Jalen Hurts

100

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Through 2 weeks, the Patriots are giving up a 36.3 passer rating in man coverage. If an opposing QB spiked the ball on every play, they'd have a 39.6 passer rating. The Pats rank 5th in total pass yards allowed, 4th in total yards allowed and have given up the fewest points in the NFL.

081

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Through 2 weeks, RBs with 25+ rushing attempts and a target share above 25%: 1. Bijan Robinson

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

More than 4.0 yards per carry against 8+ box defenders in 2026 Jaylen Warren Tony Pollard Kenneth Walker James Cook Kyren Williams Derrick Henry Rhamondre Stevenson Blake Corum Chase Brown Jadarian Price *min 5 rushes

011

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

QB scramble rate 14% - Jayden Daniels & Caleb Williams 13% - 12% - 11% - Drake Maye 10% - Lamar Jackson *min 50 plays

011

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Most targets per route run through 2 weeks 1. JSN - 0.44 2. Parker Washington - 0.39 3. Davante Adams - 0.33 4. ARSB - 0.33 5. Stefon Diggs - 0.32 *min 25 routes

041

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Fastest offensive ball carriers through 2 weeks 1. Ken Walker - 21.21 MPH 2. Christian Watson - 21.09 MPH 3. Tyquan Thornton - 20.84 MPH 4. Caleb Williams - 20.80 MPH 5. Breece Hall - 20.78 MPH

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Sacks recorded in under 2.5 seconds in week 1 - Caleb Downs

021

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Fastest ball carriers on plays under 30 yards in week 1 1. Caleb Williams 2. Breece Hall 3. Chris Moore 4. Garrett Wilson 5. Caleb Williams

021

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Average plays on offense per team per game 2026: 60.8 2025: 61.4 2024: 62.1 2023: 63.1 2022: 63.0 2021: 63.3 2020: 64.4 (week one overreaction)

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

In week 1, 5 QBs had an ADoT below 5.0 - Bo Nix (3.85) - Cooper Rush (3.95) - Brock Purdy (4.38) - Patrick Mahomes (4.68) - Baker Mayfield (4.89) For comparison, here's the lowest ADoT recorded in each of the last 4 seasons (min 100 attempts) - 2025: 5.46 - 2024: 5.78 - 2023: 5.72 - 2022: 6.19

000

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Week 1 results by passing success rate > 46.3% (10) 90% game win rate 41.4% – 46.3% (8) 38% game win rate < 41.4% (12) 17% game win rate *min 25 attempts

110

Ben @footballnerd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

> 5 yards after contact per rush in week 1 - Kyle Monangai - Kenneth Walker - Saquon Barkley - D'Andre Swift < 2 yards after contact per rush in week 1 - Kyren Williams - David Montgomery - Quinshon Judkins *min 10 carries

051