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Felix Thoemmes

@felixthoemmes.bsky.social
1.2K followers 219 following 175 posts
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Great symposium on mediation at EASP2026. Thanks to Vincent, Markus and Hilary.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
I too am "in the weights" and honestly quite accurate too.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
It has arrived @vincentab.bsky.social Perfect sabbatical reading for next semester and will have to think about how I will weave marginaleffects, emmeans, and @easystats.github.io together for teaching next year...
Model to meaning book by Vincent Arel-Bundock
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Nice - I considered the PS to be sort of a bottleneck from all confounders and conceptualized it as a latent propensity to take on the treatment that is strictly a function of the covariates. If ignorability holds the PS blocks all back-door paths. Is that what you had in mind too?
DAG showing a propensity score model in which the PS shields all confounding influences
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Played around with Causion by @isager.bsky.social It's an impressive teaching tool for causal inference... and it also really pretty. Amazing color scheme and slick interface. Shown below a demonstration of an extended front-door DAG in Causion.
Causion interface showing a front-door DAG
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Due to popular request ;)
DAG showing relationships between variables A, Y, B, C, D
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Rearranging variables can make this clearer. In plot below, it's relatively easy to see that total effect needs no adjustment, and that direct effect from A to Y needs to block the indirect path that traverses D and C. D is a collider, and C the child of the collider, hence adjustment on B is needed
DAG display
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
2) One can also derive the shape of all possible path coefficients for a given model using Wright's tracing rules. Here is a picture of those for the example of the mediation model (X->M->Y).
Spinning 3D graph of path coefficients.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 10/11/2024
I also enjoy elliptopes - a while ago, animated this one (not quite as pretty as the ones in your blog post).
Spinning 3D graph of elliptome.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 23/10/2024
I see your Ann Arbor fall walk and raise you an Ithaca fall bike commute to campus ;)
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 03/06/2024
I'd say bite the bullet and explain potential outcomes and why in RCTs baseline bias and effect bias have expectation 0. Left is from Steyer's Causal Effects Xplorer (www.causal-effects.de/tools.php). Right from a slide that I use, adapted from Cunninghams mixtape (mixtape.scunning.com)
Image of matrix showing biases of the ACE
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
One key take-away is the importance of the "full mediation" assumption of the front-door model. As soon as it is satisfied the front-door model is often superior to a regression estimator. If violated, unadjusted analysis is often preferable.
Bias density when full mediation assumption satisfied. Front-door often has less bias,
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
New co-authored paper with Yongnam Kim. Bias and Sensitivity Analyses for Linear Front-Door Models, where we derive bias formulas for the linear case of the front-door model and compare the front-door estimator with an unadjusted regression estimator. meth.psychopen.eu/index.php/me...
Bias density over all parameter values. Naive estimate often better than front-door estimate
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 28/02/2021
About to send a letter back home, and always amazed how beautiful the #USPS global forever stamps are.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 19/12/2020
Yes, I did! Thanks @tcplny ❤️
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 10/07/2020
Open science advocates are occasionally accused of having a somewhat religious zeal... nevertheless I love this cross-stitch gift that I got.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 03/07/2020
Cornell announced their pay cuts. The endowed side will see their retirement contributions cut from 10% to 3%.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 23/06/2020
Was running out of ideas to entertain kids at home. Started playing Monty Hall with my 9yr old. This "paradox" never ceases to amaze. His mind was blown that switching doors actually helps.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 19/06/2020
Future historians will regard these Notices of Non-discrimination as Rosetta Stones. I am ASTOUNDED by the number of languages that are represented. It even has Swiss German (Wann du Deitsch schwetzt...)
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 17/06/2020
I missed you too, Tompkins County Public Library. @tcplny #curbsidepickup
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 06/05/2020
Was hoping to have a peek at @JeffRouder talk on ANOVA (and the lies it tells), but apparently WMG (Warner Music Group) blocked the video on YouTube. :( www.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/en/erdfeld…
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 24/02/2020
New paper by Vanderweele et al. argues that factor analysis that shows uni-dimensional structure actually tells us nothing about the latent structure at all (if we assume other causally related factor). #measurement arxiv.org/abs/2001.10352
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 04/08/2019
First day in Cardiff, Wales, and I realize that what I believed was a British urban legend is actually reality. ALL sinks in my house have two taps - one hot, one cold. And it makes no sense whatsoever.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 28/07/2019
Inspired by @minzlicht I shaved my head right before the start of my sabbatical. In a couple of days I will be joining @richarddmorey @chrisdc77 and @CandiceMorey at @cardiffuni
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 13/04/2019
And here the standard errors of the treatment effect estimates. Adjusting on nothing = large SEs (comparatively speaking), but adjusting on only the unbalanced covs = also large SEs! Adjustment on those doesn't buy you anything! Adjusting on all, or predictive ones =much better
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 13/04/2019
These are the estimates of 5000 reps. All are unbiased - adjusting on nothing, and adjusting on only imbalanced covs looks pretty similar. So does adjusting on everything and adjusting on the predictive covs.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 31/03/2019
Wow, this funnel plot of PRE-REGISTERED replications of money priming is crazily syymetric research.tilburguniversity.edu/en/p…
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 15/01/2019
Reading list for this semester's MSG (Methods Study Group). Topic this semester: "The p-value".
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 03/01/2019
Interesting tidbit from Harvard's discrimination trial. Expert witness simulates data under H_0 and finds p=.02, then claims with (1-p)=99.8% confidence that H_1 (Harvard manipulated admissions process) is correct. Sounds like Prosecutor's fallacy.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 14/12/2018
My colleague James Cutting just showed me how he fine-tunes his graphs using Photoshop 3 (!) on an old PowerMac. Usually when he jitters data points he does so by hand, because it is more aestecially pleasing to him. I am in awe & will miss him when he retires next year.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 20/11/2018
Just spotted that @CornellCinema is showing the "Paywall" movie, featuring Cornell's own Paul Ginsparg, founder of #arXiv
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 05/06/2018
Just compiled reading list for next semester's journal club. Topic: "Myths"
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 30/05/2018
Hoping this will make for good summer reading.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 29/05/2018
Note from an undergrad at end of semester. Nice to see that students may not adopt, but still apprecitae different modes of thinking.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 02/02/2018
Next class session, students will have to speed-date, pretending to be one of four inferential frameworks.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 22/01/2018
Looking forward to this semester's Methods journal club. Theme this semester: Pre-prints only.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 04/10/2017
An undergrad just came to my office and performed a rap on p-hacking for me. #drose
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 03/05/2017
Trying something new next semester for methods journal club. Instead of articles, we will read @chrisdc77 book on 7 sins.
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 24/03/2017
Got my copy today. Content even prettier than cover. @PrincetonUPress @PUPolitics
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 07/12/2016
Just finished this semester's journal club with @adoCornell. Readings taken from @hardsci -thx!
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Felix Thoemmes @felixthoemmes.bsky.social · 26/10/2016
Excellent quote from @richarddmorey and @lakens! Will change my teaching on power analysis.
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