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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Back of the envelope maths suggests a weekend express service might increase outer Werribee patronage by up to 50%. It would also make delivering every 10 minutes Sandringham service more practical. I think this should be one of the next services priorities for the government.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Going back to this chart, and comparing to the Craigieburn line, I think it's fair to say there is a local impact here. And no, this is not just an artifact of peak vs off peak patronage.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The three Altona loop stations have limited patronage due to much smaller catchment areas. Unfortunately, the current operations prioritize these stations at the expense of the busier outer stations.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

On the weekday, the Werribee line is granted an express service via a more direct alignment. This saves 10 minutes, a big deal for the stations of the outer Werribee Line.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The weekend patronage fall-off hits the outer Werribee Line harder than most parts of the Metropolitan network, and I think I know why. No expresses.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

For the full analysis, including a 29-metre stop pair(!), spacing differences between LGAs and modes, the surprisingly tight-spaced 733, and what this all might mean for how we design Melbourne’s bus network – full article here: adambain1.substack.com/p/stop-spaci... (3/3)

adambain1.substack.com

Stop spacing on Melbourne’s Bus Routes

How Far Apart Should Melbourne’s Bus Stops Be?

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I crunched the numbers and found the route with the tightest spaced stops was the 740, a peak only coverage route in Mitcham and Vermont, with a median stop spacing of only 200 meters. (2/3)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Last week, I rode the recently extended 194 buses from Werribee to Wyndham Vale, and what jumped out at me was the stop spacing: gaps between stops were large, much larger than I was used to seeing in my area. But it got me thinking which route has the closest stops? (1/3)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

OMG, and this is not the first time I have made this type

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

194 is being extended from Harpley to Werribee, running over the recently completed Ison Road bridge. It has been also upgraded to every 20 minutes on weekdays. Unfortunately, it retains a weekend service of every 40 minutes. (4/4)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

182 is an existing route, being altered to travel via West Tarneit Station, and given an improved service, increasing from every 40 minutes to every 20 minutes all week. This is one of Melbourne’s most productive routes, so it will be well used. (3/4)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

186 is a brand-new route, travelling from Tarneit Station to West Tarneit Station. It will run every 20 minutes all week, shuttling residents from northern Tarneit to train stations. This area has only had FlexiRide until now, and the fixed route will likely capture far higher ridership (2/4)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Today is not only the opening of West Tarneit station, but a major step forward in the Wyndham bus network, with three new every 20-minute corridors added. Explore the changes at ptmapmeb.com 🧵(1/4)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

If you want to see ALL the data at once, the metrics page has your back, an excel style table where you can sort columns. Below the grand table, is a network wide summary for a variety of stats, which will show the top and bottom 10 alongside key statistical results.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

It has support for combined corridors too, so you can observe parts of the network such as the railway line to Clifton Hill. Also included is an interactive frequency map which shows how the services change over the days and the weeks.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

For an example, we can see the recently upgraded Sandringham line in my first image has a weekday daytime frequency of every 10 min, whilst a weekend daytime frequency of every 20 minutes.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

As a companion to my Melbourne-wide public transport map, I’ve designed an interactive webpage for easily exploring and comparing the frequencies of Melbourne’s train, tram and bus routes. Link: ptmapmelb.com/frequencyfin...

ptmapmelb.com

FrequencyFinder

See how frequent your train, tram or bus route really is

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

2025 was a bad year for Metro Trains patronage, possibly the post COVID spike ended and recalibrated, or the disruptions during that period were just too much for some passengers. Whatever the cause, it is clear that Metro Trains is back on track.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Comparing with 2018, V/Line is doing the best, likely driven by constant services growth and the reworked fares system. Metropolitan buses and regional buses have been the most stable, possibly due to passengers using these forms of transport often not having the choice to WFH.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

it could also be that of the kinds of trips that fares were the final barrier to are more "recreational" style train trips. This would track with the impacts of free fares seemingly being larger in April than in May, as the school holidays were in April.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Whilst there was a steady increase of train passengers during the first months of the Metro Tunnel, it looks like it was the trains that benefited most from the free travel period. This of course may be an artifact of estimation methods, but ...

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Looking at the year-on-year change, we can observe that the metropolitan trains have been changing in tandem with the trams, likely due to both being dominated by CBD commuter flows. However, at the start of 2026, train growth positively diverged from tram growth - Metro Tunnel?

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

New Victorian public transport patronage data is out, so let’s see where we are at:

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

anti clockwise around the bay

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Thought I’d design a T1/T2/T3 etc. style map for Melbourne. It is only a matter of time.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Despite this, in Melbourne the concentric was more predictive - perhaps our city is better thought of as inner vs outer rather than east vs west. Maybe?? It's (of course) complicated 🙃 Complicated enough for a full write up here: adambain1.substack.com/p/do-our-cit... 3/3

adambain1.substack.com

Do Our Cities Have “Favoured Quarters”?

An Analysis of Australian Urban Inequality

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

To test this, I compared two different models of spatial inequality: sectoral and concentric. What I found was that Perth and Adelaide had the strongest direction-based inequality, but it was significant in Sydney and Melbourne too. 2/3

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Across many major metropolitan areas in the USA, often there is one direction which is considered "favoured quarter". In Atlanta this is the North, where a disproportionate amount of wealth and opportunity is concentrated. But do we see this pattern in Australia? 1/3

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Bus 333 is Sydney's busiest route. It also happens to be one of the easiest numbers to remember. I checked whether Melbourne's most important buses have equally memorable numbers to answer the question: Should we renumber Melbourne’s bus network? open.substack.com/pub/adambain...

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Oh, and of course: A new route has appeared in Melbourne's West: the 140A!

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

I can't help but feel a sense of pride when the map is fully zoomed out - this project has been hours and hours of work, and it finally feels like it's worth it.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

The final major ptmapmelb.com update is LIVE: The Inner Suburbs insert is done, meaning that the map now covers all metropolitan Melbourne.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Dandenong is the most linguistically diverse suburb in Australia. Full breakdown and more!: open.substack.com/pub/adambain...

open.substack.com

What is Australia’s Most Linguistically Diverse Suburb?

Language in Australia Deep Dive Part 2.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

You can explore the full results here (map works best on desktop): adambain014.github.io/VicTrainPatr...

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Some activity centres do well across the board, but a many down badly once you look at cross-suburban connections.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

I went through and assessed all of them based on how good their public transport connections are in each of the four cardinal directions (north/south/east/west). The results are pretty mixed.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

The Victorian Government is rolling out major upzoning around “train and tram” activity centres, with their location justified by access to public transport But I started wondering. How well are these centres really connected if you look beyond just trips to and from the CBD?

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Top 10 activity centres by public transport connectivity:

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

🧵3/3 I believe we should be using the framework of the “four-pointed star” to assess whether activity centres are truly pt connected, rather than assuming that pt is one and done by a decent CBD connection. Read more here, in my latest post: open.substack.com/pub/adambain...

open.substack.com

The Activity Centres Need Good Non-Radial Connections Too.

A framework to find key gaps in activity centre public transport

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Take High Street Thornbury as an example. North–south? The 86 tram - frequent. East–west? The 510 bus - decent, but only every 20 mins. Sure, there is frequent transport in Thornbury, but not in all four directions.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

🧵1/3 Some thoughts on the government's activity centres: It’s great they’re being built next to public transport. But there’s a big gap in the plan: non-radial connections. Most trips aren’t to the CBD www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...

abc.net.au

Density push to allow for 20-storey towers in Melbourne's north

The Victorian government has released its final planning controls for 25 activity centres in Melbourne, with tweaks meaning lower height limits in parts of Kew and Oakleigh and higher heights in parts...

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

2/2 The north of the CBD is ultra-dense, and the Sandringham Line is a density hotspot. Read how I got these numbers, and if they correlate with patronage here: adambain1.substack.com/p/densest-tr... And for an interactive map, visit: adambain014.github.io/VicTrainPatr... (Screenshot of map below)

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

🧵1/2 Melbourne's railways traverse vastly different areas, from semi-rural Wattle Glen to the dense CBD. I thought it would be worth finding out which stations have the densest catchments.

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

2/2 I devised a way to pick out which station a service should be said to be going "via" - More in my latest Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/adambain...

open.substack.com

Via where exactly?

Improving Melbourne Train Information

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expedtadam @expedtadam.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

🧵1/2 This passenger information display says "via Metro Tunnel" Well, I'm on the platform at Town Hall, of course it's going via the Metro Tunnel! If only there was a more relevant station to put after "via"...

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