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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

The Calafiore descriptor you need is “swashbuckling”.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The NIL market for college basketball is now up 65% from last offseason. And there's a certain player type that's being overpaid. Read my full analysis of this year's NIL market trends 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/nil-market...

blog.evanmiya.com

NIL Market Trends You Need To Know

The NIL market is up 65% from last season

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Here are the top 25 first-year coaches based on where their programs are currently ranked at EvanMiya.com. Each team's preseason ranking is included for comparison. Ryan Odom, Jai Lucas, and Ben McCollum lead the way 👇

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

The single best tool I can recommend for filling out your bracket is the Hypothetical Matchup Preview tool at EvanMiya.com. You get: - Injury-adjusted prediction - Tale of the tape - Roster comparison - Vegas line Here's a potential E8 Arizona vs Illinois matchup:

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

You mean the team that was the preseason #1 team?

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

There is not, it's hard to fairly adjust all teams for injury context.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

In my line of work, they are the same.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Which teams have overachieved relative to their roster? This graph compares the quality of each team's resume to their preseason roster grade at EvanMiya.com. Teams above the middle gray area have significantly out-performed their roster talent👇

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

INJURY MISFORTUNE This graph shows how much production each team has lost due to injuries this season, based on player ratings at EvanMiya.com. USC, Oregon, Washington, and Missouri have been pummeled by injuries 👇

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

It's only February, but @norlander.bsky.social and I are predicting tournament outcomes for 15 notable teams. Let us know what we got wrong ⬇️

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

THE KILL SHOT This graph tracks double digit scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) for teams over the course of the season. Here's all EvanMiya.com top 75 teams in terms of runs scored and runs conceded, adjusted for strength of opponent. 👀 Michigan, Zona, Florida

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

RESUME QUALITY Here are the teams with the best resumes in the sport, according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com. 1 seeds - UConn, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State 2 seeds - Nebraska, Arizona, Vandy, Purdue Squeaking in - Yale, Baylor, Cal, Texas A&M

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

🚨 The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is officially live🎙️ I'm hosting a weekly CBB show covering national storylines and recent trends, featuring multiple guests each week — plus a touch of analytics. First full episode drops on Tuesday morning! share.transistor.fm/s/7e1c4c82

share.transistor.fm

Trailer / Intro | The EvanMiya College Basketball Show | Episode 1

Welcome to the EvanMiya College Basketball Show.The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is a weekly college basketball podcast covering the biggest national storylines and emerging trends men’s college b...

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

Bayesian Performance Rating predicts player impact going forward using box score statistics, advanced team impact metrics, and historical data for each player. Players in the upper right of the graph are expected to be the most valuable going forward. You can find full ratings at EvanMiya.com.

evanmiya.com

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

PLAYER VALUE GRAPH This graph shows the top college basketball players in terms of per-possession offensive value (X axis) and defensive value (Y axis), according to BPR at EvanMiya.com 👇

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

EFFICIENCY LANDSCAPE: Here is the current predicted team efficiency landscape for college basketball, based on ratings from EvanMiya.com, split into tiers 👇

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Priors still do get included even as the season progresses, it's a predictive metric trying to forecast who will play the best going forward.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

We have a gargantuan matchup tonight between Gonzaga and Michigan, both ranked in the top 4 at EvanMiya.com. Key stat: Under Dusty May, Michigan is 15-0 when their opponent shoots under 33.5% from three and has 8 or fewer steals. They are just 1-5 when their opponent hits both of these marks.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Additionally, Duke's defense has been stellar when Ngongba is on the floor. Only Dame Sarr has a better Adjusted Team Defensive Efficiency, which measures how many points per 100 possessions the defense is giving up with each player on the court, adjusted for opponent strength.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Duke currently has two of the top three most valuable players in the country, per BPR at EvanMiya.com. Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Purdue with an impressive first half "Avalanche" (20-0 run) against #15 Texas Tech! There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Here are the best wins any team has had this year according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com, in order: Arizona @ UConn Alabama vs Illinois Arizona vs Florida Purdue @ Alabama Michigan St. vs Kentucky Alabama @ St. John's UConn vs BYU Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

It's been 332 days since Michigan State had 6 different players hit a three-pointer in a game (Dec 21, 2024 vs FAU) Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

You can read more about Box BPR here, which is a part of the overall Bayesian Performance Rating calculation: blog.evanmiya.com/i/176370266/...

blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB

New updates and a full model technical explainer

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Box BPR is a college-specific version of Box Plus-Minus, trained on years of college data to determine which stats add the most value towards winning. There's also some weighting towards zero (D1 avg) for players who haven't played as many possessions so that we don't overreact to small sample sizes

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Here are the players with the best statistical output in college basketball two weeks into the season, according to Box BPR at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for opponent strength. Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

Notable team movement from the preseason at EvanMiya.com: 🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th 🔼Georgia 40 to 23 🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24 🔼Syracuse 66 to 39 🔽UCLA 10 to 26 🔽Michigan State 22 to 33 🔽Oregon 23 to 40 🔽Miss State 28 to 48 🔽Creighton 31 to 50 🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

UConn takes on BYU tonight in a top 12 battle according to EvanMiya.com. UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful. Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have. The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good? Predicted score Bama 84-82.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year. Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...

blog.evanmiya.com

2025 Lineup Projections and Rankings

Handing out lineup awards before the season begins, what can go wrong?

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team. You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...

blog.evanmiya.com

2025 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcomes

Using preseason simulations to get best and worst case scenarios for every team

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

BPR measures impact per-possession on offense and defense while a player is on the court. As such, players like Kemba with tremendous full-season stats who played tons of games/minutes would be rated more highly if this were a cumulative season stat.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time. A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...

blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB

New updates and a full model technical explainer

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th. Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 12/10/2025

Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning. Some teams I'm higher on: Arizona BYU Oregon NC State Miami Oklahoma Teams I'm lower on: Kentucky Texas Tech Baylor Wisconsin USC

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com! These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com! You'll find: 🏀 Team and player projections 💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings 📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com! You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason. Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...

blog.evanmiya.com

Five Team Roster Outlooks for 2025-26

A peak behind the curtain at a brand new tool at EvanMiya.com

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up? I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...

blog.evanmiya.com

Mid-Major Roster Construction Strategies

How teams with limited resources can find success in the modern portal era

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Kentucky has been great against the best teams and the worst teams on their schedule. It's the teams in the middle they have struggled with.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

My official bracket is done. Here's my analysis of all my picks:

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