Reposted by Evan D'AlessandroAntoine Bourguilleau @abrgll.bsky.social · 07/10/2026My students got talent. Battle for Moscow was a blast. They chose NOT to explain the Rasputitsa rule so the players were not biased. 1101
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 16/09/2026More playtesting of Brigade Commander. It is getting there slowly, the main body is done but it still has lots of tweaking and clarification to be done, and the real world is always constantly moving forward creating problems to be fixed. 052
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026In all seriousness though I do find their research super interesting stuff, just their view of science really gets my goat... 010
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026This man radicalized me in three chapters! 110
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Really "would be unacceptable in other sciences" is a silly statement and rankles me, you are saying social science must be like hard sciences, but they are different things and function differently! Blindly applying the way one works to the other is not going to work because they are different! 031
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026and Building Better Games for National Security Policy Analysis (pg. 44-53 esp.), all show that this view of "science" as "statistically significant things" is incorrect, and looking beyond just that approach will have a lot of value for analytic wargaming (though stats does have it's uses!). 131
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Anyways this is a short form of more complicated thoughts and thus very flattening of a lot of complexity, but I think reading Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines, The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations, 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Functionally using things like process tracing is what analytic wargames are doing in practice. This idea of overlimiting to "only if we can apply stats to it" in many cases would deprive us of useful data we could otherwise collect from wargames because stats can only tell you certain things. 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026So, there are other ways to do rigorous science that I think fit *most* wargames better, such as treating them as cases and applying those methods. This is (major simplification) functionally what we do for the most part now and its a perfectly legitimate way to create rigorous scientific knowledge. 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026The whole debate about how we get good information out of games with a rigorous game + research design is really really interesting, and I don't want to get into a long tangent on research methods and how that relates to design here because it's beside the point (I can talk more if needed). 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026This is a separate discussion but shortly I mostly think that statistical neopositivist wargames sacrifice external validity to increase internal validity, but that's a separate discussion. Its also possible AI agents could help resolve that maybe? Doing more research as they suggest would be good. 131
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026I have problems with how analytical wargaming is used (more issues with reporting really), but their conception here so aggressively statistically (neo)positivist. That is not "science" but a theory of science, and one that I think wargaming should be very careful about going down as our only way. 131
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026They also talk about it in their presentation at Connections (see slides 5-6): docs.google.com/presentation...docs.google.com2026 Dawson - Convergence of the AI and Analytic Wargaming Revolutions.pptxConvergence of the AI and Analytic Wargaming Revolutions 2026 Connections Wargaming Conference Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Will Dawson, Dustin League, Peter McGill, Greg Sallaberry, and Joh... 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026"Most [analytic] wargames we have reviewed ... have not adequately quantified statistical significance, accounted for errors/biases, or run sufficient control baselines. Small run sizes with uncontrolled variables are the norm in wargaming ... but would be unacceptable in other sciences." 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026"a more scientific approach to the field. We focus on analytic wargames, by which we mean games designed like scientific experiments: carefully constructed to control variables, run at scale to quantify statistical significance of findings, and used to test specific hypotheses." 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026I don't have anything to say in relation to the discussion of AI in this piece as it's not my area and I will never say no to more research, but but do think the idea of "scientific" wargaming laid out here is clearly wrong. warontherocks.com/where-does-a...warontherocks.comWhere Does AI Escalation Come From? We Don’t Know. We Should Find Out.We played a wargame using AI players. Two nuclear-armed nations — Red and Blue — with a long-standing, fierce border dispute were placed into a 141
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Thankfully you live in the right country for "overcast!" 010
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Glad I could be of help, though to be honest I can't remember what I said at all! 010
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 31/08/2026I also find the randomness section quite interesting despite Google Translate being a touch shakey, and not just because it cites me in it... 110
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 31/08/2026Congratulations on getting it done, and it's good to see you pushing Lithuanian wargaming forward! 110
Reposted by Evan D'AlessandroPijus Krūminas @pijusk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026For most of the last year, I have been writing the Lithuanian wargaming handbook. So, I'm very happy to see its public release by the Warfare Institute of the Training and Doctrine Command of the Lithuanian AF. Thanks to Anatolijus Malyškinas for the idea, initiative, support, and trust. 2135
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/08/2026If you are interested in Market Garden and haven't read it, I highly recommend It Never Snows in September as a in-depth view of the operation from the German perspective. crecy.co.uk/product/it-n...crecy.co.ukIt Never Snows in September | Crécy PublishingOn the afternoon of 17 September 1944, Lieutenant Joseph Enthammer, a Wehrmacht artillery officer based in Arnhem, gazed up to the clear skies, hardly believing what he saw. White ‘snowflakes’ appeare... 000
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Probably not going to play it again, but it was interesting from a game historical perspective and I had a good time playing it. We called the game where it was clear me and my opponent were just going to grind into each other for the next two hours until someone won. 100
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Played through Storm Over Arnhem. Very easy to get the hang of and a few interesting ideas, but a couple clearly exploitable rules and the best moves are pretty obvious after the first hour or two of play. My opponent never felt a reason to hand over tactical advantage either. 121
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026ROCA 3rd Theater of Operations obviously. 021
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026That makes more sense to me, but I've never found hail as anything but grating. I guess next time I'll try to enjoy it more and see how it goes! 110
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Many things I've done couldn't have been done without the ability to just download and read stuff off DTIC and it's incredibly stupid to restrict access for no reason. Cutting off a incredibly, almost entirely digitized repository of extremely useful sources for no reason. 042
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026I am now thankful that I downloaded 500+ things from them "to read later" but I would prefer to just be able to get the stuff in the first place. Some of it is in think tank archives and such, but they aren't searchable like DTIC and you can't just download the PDF, and lots of stuff is DTIC only. 173
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026This explains the "scheduled maintenance" page I've been getting. DTIC has been insanely important for me in designing wargames and doing analysis. Taking away access from non CAC holders is bad for defence analysis in addition to military historians. 1133
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026These are just the ones I made for wargames for fun! 120
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026I too am normal and can be trusted with excel sheets... 220
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026I think this is the first time I have seen a Nick opinion I both disagree with and am absolutely flummoxed by. What is good about hail? 110
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 19/08/2026I had a fabulous couple of hours there to get my work done, but am still perpetually amused by the line of logic that lead to the production of the document I had to sign to begin with! 030
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 19/08/2026My favorite BLH fact is that the Liddell-Hart Archives at KCL require you to sign a piece of paper saying you won't publish anything mean about him to be allowed to use the archive. I had to do some stuff there for my MA so I guess I'm banned from bad mouthing him for life... 140
Reposted by Evan D'AlessandroSebastian Bae @sebastianbae.bsky.social · 18/08/2026I did not have the PLA Navy playing my "Littoral Commander Indo-Pacific" #wargame on one of their ships on my bingo card for 2026. Absolutely wild. 🎲 #wargaming 1832948
Reposted by Evan D'AlessandroJames Buckley @jsbuckley.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Battlegroup Clash Baltics now has a Vassal mod. Download it here 👇 Battlegroup Clash: Baltics - Module Library - Vassal share.google/kEUr2btd4M7M...share.googleBattlegroup Clash: Baltics - Module Library - VassalVassal is an open-source game engine for building and playing online adaptations of board games and card games. 052
Reposted by Evan D'Alessandro"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Light infantry: remarkably useful, it turns out. Remember to bring some. 72319
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Working on Russian-specific capability cards for Brigade Commander. I think the nukes are going to be scenario specific for the time being. 051
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 11/08/2026The solution is clearly to put it back near the window the opposite way around so it bends in the opposite direction and evens out eventually. Easy peasy. 030
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 11/08/2026The bigger context to this where I found the link in China Brief: jamestown.org/technologica...jamestown.orgTechnological Progress in ‘Time War’ With the West - JamestownExecutive Summary: In the spring of 1996, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) launched missiles into the sea around Taiwan to intimidate the island before its first free and direct presidential elect... 011
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Interesting wargaming find of the day, a PLARF Lt. Gen. writing that "A 'time battlefield' wargaming system should be developed to simulate new combat scenarios such as time and frequency suppression" archive.is/9DNXo#select...archive.is 111
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 10/08/2026I maintain my stance that we should have eminent domain but for art I like so I can go see it whenever I want. 010
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Chieftains gets the closest at land conventional fight in nuclear environment maybe, and Flight of the Old Dog as a B-52 novel, but I can't remember any fiction of any time from the perspective of an operational commander fighting a nuclear war (The Black Effect maybe?). 010
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Probably mostly cultural, because that's the terrifying zeitgeist, but probably also because communicating that sort of fighting is incredibly difficult on screen (both the distance at which the fighters are removed, the level of destruction, and how "boring" it is). 120
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 29/07/2026I suppose the interesting comparison is that this basically describes all movies/TV about nuclear war: By Dawn's Early Light, Threads, Dr. Strangelove (excepting the fight for the airbase), etc. all have no real sense of any nuclear (or conventional) fighting, and are political or civilian focused. 120
Reposted by Evan D'AlessandroThe Dietz Foundation @thedietzfoundation.bsky.social · 27/07/2026We will have a new professional wargame available to pre-reserve copies of on the Foundation website starting next Monday!! It's not just expending ammo...how are you going to get fuel/men halfway across the world in time to make a difference? 2228
Reposted by Evan D'Alessandroanton chekhov’s gun (they/them) @annapagnacco.com · 26/07/2026some color scheme studies for @evandalessandro.bsky.social‘s little guys 111
Evan D'Alessandro @evandalessandro.bsky.social · 26/07/2026I come to you for this because I couldn't have dreamt these up if I tried. 010