Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 26/06/2025In our lead story this morning we write that the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly unsustainable for both sides – Russia, too, is reaching the point of exhaustion. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 25/06/2025our lead story this morning is about Germany’s projected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 60-80%. The appetite to agree to more European debt, and the fiscal space that is left, will fall dramatically. eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 24/06/2025In our lead story this morning, we write about the peace that descended on the Middle East this morning and wonder what will now happen to Iran’s nuclear programme. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 23/06/2025In our briefing this morning, we look at the long-term consequences of the US strike against Iran, and struggle to find any good outcomes. www.eurointellingence.comeurointellingence.com 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 20/06/2025Pedro Sánchez is right. The Nato 5% target will over-extend European countries financially, weaken their fiscal position, and ultimately be counter-productive for their security. A fine mess. Our lead story in Eurointelligence this morning. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 022
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Here is my latest column in Eurointelligence on why I no longer support Eurobonds. www.eurointelligence.com/column/goodb...eurointelligence.comA Lost Hamiltonian MomentI used to support eurobonds, but no longer do because the only ones on offer are of the toxic variety 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 19/06/2025In the latest edition of our new long-format podcast, our team discusses the geopolitical consequences of the war against Iran. www.eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 19/06/2025In our lead story this morning we take wonder about what China and Russia will do in response to US military action against Iran; www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Has von der Leyen just hoisted the white flag in the trade talks with the US with her U-turn on China? www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 17/06/2025In our main story this morning we write about the appreciation of the euro and the effect this will have on transatlantic trade, coming on top of the tariffs www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 16/06/2025My column in UnHerd on why the West is winning all the battles, and losing all the wars. unherd.com/2025/06/the-...unherd.comThe West has forgotten the art of strategy 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 16/06/2025Our lead story this morning on why risks of a geopolitical catastrophe are higher today than at anytime during the Cold War. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 001
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 13/06/2025In our lead story this morning we write that the OECD has found the answer of what to reform in Germany – finance and fiscal - but the message is not getting through www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 12/06/2025In our lead story this morning, we write that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second largest reserve asset – so much for the euro taking over from the dollar... www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 11/06/2025A column by my colleague Jack Smith in Eurointelligence about the anti-immigration policies of Mette Fredriksen's, the country's social democratic prime minister. www.eurointelligence.com/column/can-t...eurointelligence.comCan the left win by turning against immigration?Mette Fredriksen's government and its anti-immigration policies may look like an example to other social democrats, but the reality is more complicated. 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 11/06/2025In our new longer-format podcast, our team discusses widely underestimated supply chain interdependencies between China, the US and the EU. www.eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 11/06/2025European companies are experiencing a massive real exchange rate shock, as evidence mounts that China is diverting trade earmarked for the US into European markets. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 10/06/2025In our lead story this morning, we write about one important aspect of western sanctions hypocrisy. Some energy policy relationships with Russia have been so deep that some countries, including Japan and France, are struggling to extricate themselves. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 09/06/2025my latest column in UnHerd on Elon Musk. unherd.com/2025/06/musk...unherd.comMusk has lost his MAGA gamble 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 09/06/2025One of the silliest ideas we have heard in a long time is the one that the EU can win a trade war against the US. The EU is not China. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 06/06/2025In our newsbriefing this morning we write that for all the noise, the signals we receive from the Trump administration are clear: the trade tariffs will come; the debt will rise; growth will fall. This is what usually happens before a financial crisis. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 111
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 04/06/2025In our lead story this morning we write about why Geert Wilders blew up the Dutch government, and what he hopes to get from new elections. His gamble might pay off. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 03/06/2025Our lead story this morning is about the absurdity of numerical defence spending targets. The history of numerical fiscal targets should be a cautionary tale. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 02/06/2025here is my latest column for UnHerd on why Lawfare almost always backfires. unherd.com/2025/06/lawf...unherd.comLawfare won’t beat Trump 021
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 30/05/2025In our lead story this morning, we discuss the mindbogglingly large number of avenues Donald Trump has at his disposal to impose trade tariffs www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 29/05/2025In our lead story this morning, we write about a notable relaxation in Russia’s demands for a peace deal: Russia no longer insists on full control of the four Ukrainian oblasts it previously claimed, and on Ukraine’s de-militarisation. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 27/05/2025my latest UnHerd column: "Trump’s ideal counterpart in a negotiation is a king, a tyrant, or a British prime minister...The European Commission is not a principal agent. It is more like an estate agent. It collects offers for consideration." unherd.com/2025/05/why-...unherd.comWhy the EU should fear Trump’s tariffs 001
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 27/05/2025In our lead story we write that the purpose of Donald Trump’s 50% tariff threat is to make the 20% look good – like we have won something. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 22/05/2025In our latest podcast, our team discusses the elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal, and what it tells us about the far-right. www.eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 22/05/2025In our briefing today we discuss the impact of the US budget on the rest of the world. Spoiler: it’s big, but not so beautiful. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 21/05/2025In our lead story this morning we argue that bond market investors appear complacent about the debt sustainability risks in the euro area. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 20/05/2025In our lead story, we write about Keir Starmer’s reset, that is maximally toxic politically, and irrelevant economically. Economic success is not about relationships. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 19/05/2025the emerging trend throughout the EU is that the two main political parties are the centre-right and the far-right. That's the over-riding result of yesterday's crop of elections in Europe. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 011
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 13/05/2025My latest column for UnHerd is about the AI arms race, and why China is in a better position to win it than the West. unherd.com/2025/05/why-...unherd.comWhy China will win the arms race 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 13/05/2025In our lead story, we note that the US-China talks will have a broader agenda that just trade. This has important implications for the upcoming US-EU talks. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 12/05/2025In our lead story we write about what Donald Trump’s assault on US pharma prices could mean for Europe – this is potentially more impactful than a tariff www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 07/05/2025Whether Friedrich Merz will fail or succeed will have less to do with yesterday’s events, but whether he is capable of maintaining a strategic focus on reversing Germany’s economic decline. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 020
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Our briefing is morning is about Europe’s chronic lack of preparedness. When Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe was not ready for war. Now it is not ready for peace. www.euroinelligence.comeuroinelligence.com 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 01/05/2025In our lead story this morning we write about the implications the US-Ukraine minerals will have for Europe. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 001
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 28/04/2025In our lead story this morning we write about how Europe’s stability pact imposes limits on German fiscal expansion. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 28/04/2025My latest column in UnHerd, on why Europe should accept Trump's deal for Ukraine - or a version thereof. unherd.com/2025/04/euro...unherd.comWhy Europe should accept Trump's peace deal 010
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 26/04/2025Our latest podcast is on why tariffs alone cannot do the heavy lifting to reduce global imbalances. eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 020
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 25/04/2025Our lead story this morning is about global imbalances, how and why they have arisen, and why they are unsustainable. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 22/04/2025My latest column for UnHerd. On industries that will come back - and on those that won't. unherd.com/2025/04/amer...unherd.comAmerica’s auto jobs are not coming back 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 22/04/2025In our lead this morning, we write that – from the perspective of the Trump administration – the fall in the dollar’s exchange rate is a feature, not a bug. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 20/04/2025The idea that tariffs will hurt the deficit country more than the surplus country is wishful thinking. In our latest podcast our team discusses the devastating effects Trump's tariffs will have on Europe. www.eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 012
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 18/04/2025In our latest podcast, our team discusses the massive direct and indirect effects of US tariffs on the EU. www.eurointelligence.com/podcastseurointelligence.comPodcasts 000
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 17/04/2025In our briefing this morning we discuss what will come after the dollar as the global reserve currency. Spoiler alert: it won’t be the euro. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 020
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 16/04/2025In our lead story, we argue that the EU will, by default, end up in the China camp of the global divide on trade. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 020
Wolfgang Munchau @eurobriefing.bsky.social · 15/04/2025In our lead article this morning, we make a case for a decisive ECB rate cut on Thursday as the US tariffs will disproportionately affect the European economy, directly, and indirectly through global supply chain network effects. www.eurointelligence.comeurointelligence.comEuroIntelligence 020
