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Eric Novik

@ericnovik.bsky.social
168 followers 242 following 33 posts

Pragmatic Bayesian | Statistics Faculty @ NYU

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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Vide-coding pentagon tiling "game" and finding it pretty addictive. You can play with it here: ericsgames.tiiny.site
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Probabilistic Modeling and Biomedicine: generable.substack.com
generable.substack.com
Probabilistic Modeling and Biomedicine | Eric Novik | Substack
Summary of the recent posts and perspectives on probabilistic modeling, Bayesian inference, and their applications in biomedicine from the team at Generable and their collaborators. Click to read Prob...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
CVCT 2025 and Bayesian Model Guiding Iterative, Personalized Anticoagulant Dosing Decision-Making www.generable.com/post/cvct-2025
generable.com
CVCT 2025 and Bayesian Model Guiding Iterative, Personalized Anticoagulant Dosing Decision-Making | Eric Novik | Generable
ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial Reanalysis
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Beware of lower limits of detection or quantification by Nikolas Siccha www.generable.com/post/lloqs
generable.com
Lower limits of detection or quantification | Nikolas Siccha | Generable
Where more data can be bad (if you don’t handle them right)
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Remarkable that Igor Savelyev credits Lenin with the definition of matter! Being a Soviet scientist was a tricky business -- even physics books needed to pass the censor.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Modeling and numerics: could we do something better? by Juho Timonen. www.generable.com/post/modelin...
generable.com
Modeling and numerics: could we do something better? | Juho Timonen | Generable
The issues of the traditional ODE solvers in probabilistic models
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Personalized dosing decisions beyond clinical trials: www.generable.com/post/improvi...
generable.com
Improving dosing decisions | Jacqueline Buros | Generable
Using a multistate model and patient utilities to improve dosing decisions
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Nonparametric statistics: Gaussian processes and their approximations by Nikolas Siccha www.generable.com/post/nonpara...
generable.com
Nonparametric statistics: Gaussian processes and their approximations | Nikolas Siccha | Generable
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
If you are interested in meta-analysis (Bayesian or non-Bayesian), check out @rlgrant.bsky.social Robert Grant's nice StanBio Connect talk available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbZ1... in which he also advertises his soon-to-be shipping book "Bayesian meta-analysis" www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Met...
youtube.com
StanBio Connect 2025
YouTube video by Stan
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org ... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty
stanbio.org
StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio
Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Things I read listened to, and saw in 2024: ericnovik.com/2025/03/book...
ericnovik.com
Books and more in 2024 - Unnatural Consequences
These books and plays left an impression on me in 2024, with summaries compiled with the help of Perplexity and ChatGPT. Books The Accidental President. Harry S. Truman and the Four Months That Change...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
The Scientific Method Vs. AI: Is There Still Room For Theory? My take here: www.forbes.com/councils/for...
forbes.com
The Scientific Method Vs. AI: Is There Still Room For Theory?
It may seem that all scientific tasks will soon be outsourced to AI—not so fast.
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Charles Margossian @charlesm993.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
StanConnects are a series of one-day online conferences for the application of Stan to specific areas. This year, we're kicking off with Stan for biology (broadly defined), co-organized by @ericnovik.bsky.social and @vianeylb.bsky.social, on 30 May '25!! stanbio.org
stanbio.org
StanBio Connect 2025 – StanBio Connect
Advancing Biomedical Research with Stan
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
“In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing. This was the first time a sitting president had used the third derivative to advance his case for re-election.” (Notices of the AMS, Oct. 1996, 43(10), p. 1108.)
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Turns out there Bayesian BioPharm Meeting 2025. bnp14.org/bbp2025/. Anyone going?
bnp14.org
Bayesian BioPharm Meeting 2025 – BNP 14 World Meeting @ UCLA
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
My daughter's pork belly ramen is the best I've ever had.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
I was just talking to an experienced probabilistic modeler who said: "After working with a few probabilistic programming languages, Stan is my fave: everything is typed and everything just works." It's a pain to get things in and out of Stan, but it's usually worth it.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
2025 is a 2, 3, 4, 5 kind of year. Why? Because 2025 = 3^4 * 5^2
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Modeling Public Opinion Over Time and Space: Trust in State Institutions in Europe, 1989-2019 by Kołczyńska et al. ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
"When you are playing a point, it's the most important thing in the world. But when it's behind you, it's behind you..." -- Roger Federer
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Liza Semenova @liza-semenova.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Thrilled to share our new @pnas.org paper using active learning 🤖 to optimise disease testing 🦠 and support public health 🌍. Press release by @imperialsph.bsky.social: imperial.ac.uk/news/259573/... Paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Joint work with some stellar collaborators!
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Liza Semenova @liza-semenova.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
If you are interested in doing a #PhD with me at Imperial College London and qualify as a home student, please reach out (before end of 2024)! Potential topics: spatial statistics, applied deep generative models, probabilistic programming and more.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Why is a bullshitter worse than a liar? Because he is not even wrong! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bull... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_eve...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
A lot of people heard about John von Neumann but not about Alexander Craig Aitken, but Aitken was quite remarkable particularly if you are a statistician. For example, he independently derived Cramer-Rao lower bound, a very nice result in (frequentist) statistics. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexand...
en.wikipedia.org
Alexander Aitken - Wikipedia
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Traveling salesmen are still out of luck, but the commercial movers finally caught a break with this breakthrough! phys.org/news/2024-12...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Statistical wars inside the frequentist camp: According to Neyman, though, the argument began because Fisher demanded that Neyman lecture only from Fisher’s book. When Neyman refused, Fisher promised to oppose him “in all my capacities.” - The Theory That Would Not Die
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Ahh, Indox zero.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Why do CS people write nice-looking code while statisticians don't? For a computer scientist, code is the product; for a statistician, code is a byproduct.
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Sean Pinkney @spinkney.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
A new release of Stan is coming discourse.mc-stan.org/t/cmdstan-st.... Highlights: New constraints for stochastic matrices and zero-sum vectors Easier user-defined constraints Improved diagnostics New distribution, beta_negative_binomial
discourse.mc-stan.org
CmdStan & Stan 2.36 release candidate
I am happy to announce that the latest release candidates of CmdStan and Stan are now available on Github! This release cycle brings new constrained types, improved diagnostics, and a new distributio...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Lisbon looks very nice this morning.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
What are pragmatic Bayesians? We all want to use optimization. Why? Because it's fast and we want to move on with our lives. In complex settings, optimization doesn't work well or at all.
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Running Markov Chain Monte Carlo on Modern Hardware and Software by Sountsov, Carroll, and Hoffman, showing some new performance benchmarks. arxiv.org/abs/2411.04260
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Roger Penrose convinced me to study some complex analysis, and this is from the book Visual Complex Analysis by Needham, which is a gem. (I don't know Penrose personally, but I tried reading The Road to Reality)
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Note to self: In pretty much any field, it helps to think like an economist -- people and organizations will behave according to incentives that you (the people or the person) put in place. Corollary: be careful not to hang your incentives on a single number/metric, as it can probably be gamed.
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Reposted by Eric Novik
Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
CmdStan & Stan 2.36 release candidate is now available with new constrained types, improved diagnostics, and a new distribution for heavy-tailed count data. See more at discourse.mc-stan.org/t/cmdstan-st... and test with your own models! #Bayesian #mcmc_stan
discourse.mc-stan.org
CmdStan & Stan 2.36 release candidate
I am happy to announce that the latest release candidates of CmdStan and Stan are now available on Github! This release cycle brings new constrained types, improved diagnostics, and a new distributio...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Meta-analysis with only one study? No problem. stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/rese...
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Looks like a nice package for Causal Inference in Python: causalpy.readthedocs.io
causalpy.readthedocs.io
CausalPy - causal inference for quasi-experiments — CausalPy 0.4.0 documentation
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Eric Novik @ericnovik.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Causes of death globally, 2019. Source: Our World in Data ourworldindata.org/causes-of-de...
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