Ursula von der Leyen began her second term as president of the European Commission on 1 December 2024 as one of the strongest presidents in the institution’s history. She was re-elected by the European Parliament as a member of the EU’s most powerful party, the European Popular Party (EPP), asserted her authority over the College of Commissioners and moved quickly on the EU’s top priorities: defence and competitiveness. But a year on, her leadership style has increased the risk that the Commission fails to deliver on its objectives and promises.

The fall of the François Bayrou-led French government, following a failed motion of confidence on 8 September, has plunged France into a new period of instability and uncertainty and should serve as a warning for the whole of the European Union.

Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen.

Le Pen's sentence will lead to greater polarisation in France