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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Accurate expert voices in the mainstream media are the most effective counter to AMOC sensationalism around "Day After Tomorrow" collapse scenarios. Here's part 2 with Chris Smith from The Naked Scientists. Check our recent spotlight article on AMOC discourse: epoc-eu.org/amoc-collaps... [2/2]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

EPOC researcher David Thornalley (@ucl.ac.uk) appeared on @bbc5live.bsky.social with Naga Munchetty and Chris Smith to explain: 🗺️why AMOC matters 🥶what AMOC weakening actually means for the UK 🌧️why the consequences extend well beyond Europe [1/2]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

May 2023 bloom occurred under >80% sea ice, with minimal light availability, challenging conventional bloom initiation thresholds for Atlantic Water regions. SWIPS (Subsea Winched Profiling System) collected profiles through polar night addressing sampling gap in Arctic oceanography. [2/3]

Schematic of winch and profiler. a) Schematic of the mooring deployed, showing the vertical distribution of the winch and profiler system, the acoustic releases and flotation, (b) a simplified section (without the cabling) through the profiling unit with the mounted instrumentation labelled and (c) an overview table of the mooring.

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

Novel autonomous profiling system north of Svalbard captured under-ice phytoplankton bloom one week before Polar Day. ☀️ ______________ 🦠🦠🦠🦠🦠 Rebecca McPherson (@awi.de) + colleagues report high-resolution observations of Arctic upper ocean biogeochemistry. Deep Sea Research Part II. [1/3]

Year-round vertically resolved observations of upper ocean hydrography and biogeochemistry in the Atlantic Water inflow north of Svalbard - paper

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Warming rate of 0.20°C/decade exceeds global ocean rates. Data reveal multi-annual warm / cold anomalies with 2-year typical duration, but most recent cold period lasted 5+ years, unprecedented in this record. Suggests shifting baseline conditions in Atlantic Water source regions. [2/3]

Atlantic Water temperature variability in the WSC branches. Timeseries of annually averaged Atlantic Water (AW) temperatures for the WSC core , the offshore branch, and the combined WSC, with the standard deviation shown as whiskers. Long-term linear trends for each branch are plotted as dotted lines and listed in the legend. Shading marks warm (red) and cold (blue) AW temperature anomalies. Vertical lines indicate the start of each decade. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Atlantic Water entering the Arctic through Fram Strait has warmed 0.54°C over 27 years. 🌡️ New EPOC paper from Rebecca McPherson (@awi.de) & colleagues presents the longest continuous mooring record available for the Arctic gateway region. 🟡 ❕ ❕ ❕ ❕ ⬜ Deep Sea Research Part II, out now. [1/3]

Front cover of the Deep Sea Research journal

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

EPOC's work on transport variability, past circulation changes, & conditions for abrupt transitions (tipping points) provides evidence to separate plausible risk from extreme projections. Until those gaps narrow, accurate communication is how we should serve the public & policymakers. [6/7]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

The real risks of gradual AMOC weakening don't require collapse scenarios to justify action: 🧊cooling in the North Atlantic, 🌦️shifting precipitation patterns, 🌬️increased storminess, 🌊coastal sea level rise. RAPID observations (@noc.ac.uk) show ~1 Sverdrup/decade weakening since 2004. [5/7]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

We've published a new article examining what happens when AMOC risk is overstated. epoc-eu.org/amoc-collaps... The temperature projections circulating are post-2200 equilibrium states under idealised forcing. @ipcc.bsky.social assessed 21st-century collapse as "unlikely" (medium confidence). [3/7]

epoc-eu.org

AMOC Collapse: Separating Plausible Risk from Extreme Scenarios | EPOC

EPOC researchers contextualise recent public debate about AMOC collapse, separating plausible near-term risks from extreme scenarios in the current scientific literature.

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Bringing AMOC and climate conversations to the public, policymakers & politicans has never been more needed. But disseminating science carries responsibility: communicating science accurately, not just dramatically. [2/7]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Public engagement with AMOC science is EXACTLY what climate discourse needs. 🗣️🌍🌡️ Recent weeks saw collapse scenarios reach millions through @nebriefing.bsky.social & Ben Miles' content predicting -20°C in London & complete agricultural collapse. 🥶 But does the framing reflect the evidence? [1/7]

A snow covered UK and Europe in the winter of 2009-2010 following a decrease in AMOC heat transport by 30%

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

☢️ Radionuclide tracing from 3 cruises (Dale, @ethz.ch) 🗺️ Dense water pathways: 50yr evolution (Pickart, @whoi.edu)💬 Future panel (Chair: Eldevik, @bjerknes.uib.no). Lunch included! Celebrating the 1876 Vøring Expedition, beginning of ocean data collection in Nordic Seas. [3/3]

oneoceanweek.no

Celebrating 150 years of modern marine research in the Nordic Seas - One Ocean Week

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Programme: 📜 150 years research history (Østerhus, NORCE) 🌊 Atlantic Water transport 1998-2024 (Ingvaldsen, IMR) ❄️ Sea-ice anomalies 1880s-1910s (Miles, Colorado/NORCE) 🔄 Overturning changes (Brakstad, UiB) 🌡️ Fram Strait warming (Heuzé, Gothenburg) 🔬 Karin's 30yr observations [2/3]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

EPOC researcher Karin Margretha H. Larsen presents 30 years of North Atlantic-Norwegian Sea observations at Joint One Ocean Week / ASOF event om 21 April. oneoceanweek.no/en/arrangeme... Limited to 80 participants. Registration deadline 13 April. @unibergen.bsky.social en.bsky.social [1/3]

oneoceanweek.no

Celebrating 150 years of modern marine research in the Nordic Seas - One Ocean Week

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Then at #OneOceanWeek (20-24 April), EPOC researcher Hjalmar Hatun presents on ocean productivity, fisheries & #blueeconomy alongside @oecd-ocde.bsky.social & @mercatorocean.bsky.social. Do we have the data we need to make decisions about climate change? oneoceanweek.no/en/arrangeme... [3/4]

oneoceanweek.no

Parallel Sessions - One Ocean Summit - One Ocean Week

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) Workshop follows on 24 April at Institute of Marine Research. The Ridge is the primary Atlantic inflow pathway to the Arctic, yet sustained transport measurements remain incomplete. The workshop will focus on coordinating strategies for continuous monitoring. [2/4]

Map of Greenland-Scotland Ridge with AMOC key currents overlaid.
From Rheinlænder et al, 2020.

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

This month marks 150 years of ocean observations in Nordic Seas with the 1876 Norwegian Vøring Expedition. 🚢 What better way to celebrate than the ASOF Workshop in Bergen, Norway (21-23 April)? 🇳🇴 Charting progress from ship-based sampling to autonomous systems. REGISTRATION👉 asof.awi.de [1/4]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Now she's using this concept to run simulations to solve why different measurement approaches give us conflicting estimates of AMOC transport... Mesoscale eddies might be the missing piece. 🌀 Read her full article in the latest EPOC newletter: epoc-eu.org/news-events/ [3/3]

epoc-eu.org

News & events – EPOC project

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Researcher Hongdou Fan (MPIMET) built a forecasting system that reads ocean memory to predict winter temperatures months ahead. ☃️🌡️ It's been supporting China's National Winter Forecast since 2021, informing decisions that affect millions of people. 🇨🇳☂️ [2/3]

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

DYK the ocean has a "memory"? The ocean moves slowly, holds heat for decades, staying insulated from surface processes. 🌊 A signal formed today persists for years as it travels through subsurface currents. That memory makes long-range prediction possible... [1/3]

A simulation of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic with a picture of researcher Hongdou Fan in the lower right corner

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Stop wasting days on data wrangling. @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social et al built AMOCatlas helping to unify access to 13 observing arrays. What took days now takes minutes. Open source, community-driven. github.com/AMOCcommunity Full EPOC newsletter: epoc-eu.org/resources/ (4/4)

epoc-eu.org

Resources – EPOC project

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Edinburgh biogeochemical sensor workshop with 48 researchers from 22 institutions. Consensus: oxygen sensors should be standard on mooring arrays. Breaking down silos between physical oceanography & biogeochemistry was the key outcome. @noc.ac.uk (3/4)

A group of ocean researchers standing on a roof in front of the Edinburgh skyline

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Jack Wharton's @nature.com paper shifts the Last Glacial Maximum story: Atlantic circulation stayed surprisingly active 20,000 years ago. Brings proxy evidence into closer agreement with climate models, strengthening confidence in future projections. @ucl.ac.uk www.nature.com/articles/s41... (2/4)

nature.com

Relatively warm deep-water formation persisted in the Last Glacial Maximum - Nature

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the deep Northwest Atlantic was only about 2 °C colder than today, suggesting sustained production of relatively warm North Atlantic Deep Water during the Last Glacial...

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

EPOC's latest newsletter documents a quarter where researchers: published in @nature.com reached millions via @channel4news.bsky.social engaged 2000 visitors at @glasgowscience.bsky.social launched a @github.com community AND ran an international sensor workshop. Here's what happened... (1/4)

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Across the week, EPOC researchers presented on: — 90,000 years of AMOC change (Thornalley) — Arctic freshwater export, 1992–2024 (de Steur) — Aerosol forcing and AMOC since 1950 (Msadek) — Eddy-resolving AMOC simulations (Fan) — The 8.2 ka BP weakening event (Hewitt) <3/4>

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The Town Hall on #AMOC Observations in Transition! Astrophysicists get space telescopes costing billions! An AMOC monitoring system costs a fraction of that and is far more immediately useful. Why aren't we asking for more? (2/4)

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

EPOC had a strong week at @agu.org #OSM26 in Glasgow. @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social delivered a science plenary to ~3,000 delegates : what we know about AMOC, how we know it, and what sustained observation makes possible. (1/4)

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

🌊@helenczerski.bsky.social gave a talk on physical oceanography. A panel of scientists presented their favourite oceanography equipment, getting the audience to vote on which kit to throw off a sinking ship; the ROV was saved. One day : SO MUCH OCEAN SCIENCE!

David Thornalley persuading an audience that corers are important

A panel of researchers chatting about their favourite piece of oceanographic equipment

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

🦆 The National Maritime Museum brought a Micronesian navigational chart & a 1992 Friendly Floatee duck. 🐬@strandings.bsky.social brought cetacean skulls & a find-the-otoliths-in-dolphin-poop activity 🦪@glasgow.ac.uk made the case for native oysters. (4/5)

A rubber duck spilled in 1992 used to mapp ocean surface currents

A Micronesian stick and shell navigational chart

SMASS researchers in Glasgow Science Centre

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Visitors were shown how @ucl.ac.uk palaeoceanographer sort forams to infer past climates; the same idea behind palaeoclimate research but adapted 8-year-olds! 🔬 Plus a the marble climate tipping machine that showed how small incremental changes can trigger massive instabilities. 🌍 (3/5)

UCL researchers speak to the public in Glasgow Science Centre

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

We showcased the @noc.ac.uk recent Channel 4 segment & HongdouFan's AMOC visualisations on the EPOC stand. Audiences explored ocean currents using a Puffersphere globe & saw how warming seas destabilise marine food webs. @samsocean.bsky.social showcased AUV gliders & water mixing experiments. (2/5)

Ocean modeller Adam Blaker with the Puffersphere globe shoing ocean currents

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

As researchers gathered at #OSM26, we saw nearly 2000 people through @glasgowscience.bsky.social for Eyes on the Ocean showcasing the breadth & depth of ocean science to half-term families who left knowing what AMOC is and why it matters. (1/5)

Glasgow Science Centre across the Clyde River

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

48 scientists. 22 institutions. 1 question: Can #AMOC mooring arrays become platforms for biogeochemical observing? We brought together oceanographers, biogeochemists, engineers & data scientists to find out. Spoiler: the answer is yes. epoc-eu.org/bgc-workshop... #OceanScience #Biogeochemistry

Workshop attendees with the Edinburgh skyline behind.

EPOC project leader Eleanor Frajka-Williams (U.Hamburg) providing an overview to the group

Workshop convenor, Pete Brown (NOC), presenting data to the group

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

A huge thank you to all our exhibitors, speakers, panellists and volunteers who made our event on Saturday such a great success… and of course to @glasgowscience.bsky.social for hosting us! @ucl.ac.uk @samsocean.bsky.social @noc.ac.uk @strandings.bsky.social @glasgow.ac.uk @helenczerski.bsky.social

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Reposted by EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor

Helen Czerski @helenczerski.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

Glasgow! We have an ocean extravaganza for you next Saturday (Feb 21st) with a hands-on exhibition of all sorts of ocean science & robots, plus a lunchtime combo of talk+interactive session+short ocean films. Do join us! And do please spread the word 🌊 www.glasgowsciencecentre.org/whats-on/how...

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

#OSM26 starts Monday. EPOC highlights: Mon 12:45: AMOC monitoring Town Hall Tue 10:30: Science Plenary Thu: 3 talks on deep ocean circulation In total, 19 presentations total spanning Arctic freshwater, AMOC observations, past climate events, high-res modeling. epoc-eu.org/our-work/epoc-osm2026

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

EPOC at #OSM26 19 presentations on Atlantic circulation & AMOC observations. Key sessions: Mon 12:45: Town Hall on AMOC monitoring Tue 10:30: Plenary from Aditee Mitra & @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social Past climate insights + future observing strategies. Full schedule👉epoc-eu.org/our-work/epoc-osm2026

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

We're bringing ocean science to @glasgowscience.bsky.social on Sat 21 Feb ahead of #OSM2026 🌊 Ocean visualisation @noc.ac.uk 🤖 Robot gliders @samsocean.bsky.social 🔬 Sediment cores @ucl.ac.uk @helenczerski.bsky.social ocean tech debate glasgowsciencecentre.org/whats-on/eyes-on-the-ocean

glasgowsciencecentre.org

Eyes on the Ocean | Glasgow Science Centre

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

We're super excited to be hosting this ahead of the @agu.org #OceanScienceMeeting2026. We'll be joined by: @helenczerski.bsky.social,@challengersoc.bsky.social, @noc.ac.uk, @samsocean.bsky.social, National Maritime Museum, @edinburgh-uni.bsky.social, @universityofleeds.bsky.social + others! 🌊♾️🌍

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Congratulations to Jack, Emilia Kozikowska, Lloyd Keigwin (@whoi.edu), Thomas Marchitto, Mark Maslin, Martin Ziegler and David Thornalley. 🌍♾️🔬

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

This provides new constraints for evaluating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) behaviour across different climate states. This also brings palaeo-reconstructions into closer agreement with climate models; useful for testing model performance under more extreme boundary conditions.

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

New @nature.com paper from Jack Wharton @ucl.ac.uk. Using deep-ocean sediments, the study shows that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation during the Last Glacial Maximum persisted at similar depths to today & was much warmer than previously assumed. 📄 www.nature.com/articles/s41... <1/3>

nature.com

Relatively warm deep-water formation persisted in the Last Glacial Maximum - Nature

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

📣 New EPOC results reveal that during the last ice age the Atlantic’s powerful current system remained active and continued to transport warm, salty water from the tropics to the North Atlantic despite extensive ice cover across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Read more here 👉 tinyurl.com/5fd5v9tz

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EPOC - Explaining & Predicting the Ocean Conveyor @epocproject.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

📣 Check out EPOC's new paper on Estimates of Atlantic meridional heat transport from spatiotemporal fusion of Argo, altimetry, and gravimetry data. Open access 👉 Calafat et al. 2025 doi.org/10.5194/os-2... Short summary here: epoc-eu.org/feeling-the-...

doi.org

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