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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

I used to have a virus basically every week from September through to May before I started making for Covid - through doing this I've driven it near zero and that's in a country where we've also had years of unbridled Covid (and everything else) spread.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Typically these studies vastly underestimate the effectiveness - but from my own experience (and likely many others in Covid aware world) I have to say that for me N95 masking has cut my own virial infections to near zero over the years we've been doing this thing.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

And by actually endemic I mean that the virus flares up occasionally but is quickly stopped as there's just not enough infections and opportunities to keep it spreading.

100

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Basically the more N95s the less virus there is around and so the chances of getting infected keep dropping and could be driven to near zero levels - or what we could call actually endemic. bsky.app/profile/enem...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Of course, this study is looking at population level effects - rather than individual ones. On the individual level we know that N95 masks are 'near perfect' at stopping infection: bsky.app/profile/enem...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

'I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators.Another NPI is improving indoor air quality,as Morawska et al.[31] have recently called for. My model suggests that,for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%.'

100

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

'Mask use reduces the inhaled doses and so scales up the time needed for transmission, such that a smaller fraction of contacts are long enough for transmission.'

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Essentially this is telling us how the virus could - combined with clean air, testing, isolation etc, drive the virus down to near-zero levels:

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

As the author themselves who is a computational physicist says in their conclusion: 'I have predicted that for a population like that of the UK, wearing FFP2/N95-type masks should reduce the effective reproduction number R by a factor of nine'

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PHYSICAL REVIEW E 110, 064302 (2024)
Estimating the population-level effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions when transmission
rates of COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude from one contact to another
Richard P. Sear *,†
School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom
(Received 6 June 2024; accepted 7 October 2024; published 3 December 2024)
Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude,
the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A
power-law dependence has been found for the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of length
of time a susceptible person is in contact with an infected person. This is in data from the United Kingdom’s
COVID-19 app. The amount of virus in infected people spans many orders of magnitude. Inspired by this,
I assume that the power-law behavior found in COVID-19 tran

100

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

..Also shown are predictions for PT when one susceptible person wears a surgical mask (green dashed), one person wears an FFP2/N95 (orange dashed), when the whole population wears surgical masks (solid green), and when the population wears FFP2/N95s (solid orange)'

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

...also fitted a power law to data and found the same value for the exponent β. Data has dynamic range of three decades in time (minutes to tens of hours)....

100

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

...[22], using data from UK’s COVID-19 app [21]. Fit (blue) is obtained by fitting a straight line to logs of the data, and fit parameters are slope (exponent) 0.47 ± 0.01 and intercept −3.6. R2 = 0.996. Ferretti et al. [22]...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Chart from the study showing the effects of various interventions of reducing spread of the virus: 'Plot of the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of the length of contact time [23]. The blue points are data from the work of Ferretti et al...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

......person with high genetic susceptibility to infection. In panel (b) the transmission rate r is much lower. There the infected person has much less virus (lower viral load) and the susceptible person is across a well ventilated room from the infected person.'

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

...The droplets are then carried by air currents toward a susceptible person, who inhales them and becomes infected [3–5,8]. In panel (a) the rate of transmission r is high because an infected person with a high viral load is close to and talking with a susceptible...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

...The evidence is that the transmission of COVID-19 is at least predominantly across the air [3–9]: an infected person breathes out the SARS-CoV-2 virus in an aerosol of droplets of mucus that contain the virus...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Or to be more precise: Study shows that N95 masks reduce Covid transmission by at least 9x. Anyway: from the study: 'Pair of schematics showing two possible contacts between an infected person (I, left) and a susceptible person (S, right)...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

The study has recently been featured by Nature journal which has given it the headline: 'What if everyone had masked up?' Setting it in the past tense, when of course it should be in present tense because the pandemic is STILL RAGING. 'What if everyone masked up now?'

170

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

The present study used data from the UK's Covid App to find out that using FFP2/N95 masks reduces transmission of the virus by nearly 10x:

HYSICAL REVIEW E 110, 064302 (2024)

Estimating the population-level effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions when transmission
rates of COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude from one contact to another

Richard P. Searo*,+
School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom

(Received 6 June 2024; accepted 7 October 2024; published 3 December 2024)

Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude,
the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A
power-law dependence has been found for the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of length
of time a susceptible person is in contact with an infected person. This is in data from the United Kingdom's
COVID-19 app. The amount of virus in infected people spans many orders of magnitude. Inspired by this,
I assume that the power-law behavior found in COVID-19 transm

163

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

(ANOTHER) New Study Shows That Using N95/FFP2 Masks Reduce Covid Transmission By A Whopping 9X. Masks work.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

I think given the nature of it and the fact it violates many dogmas the research has not been followed up. The study forms their hypothesis using relevant data and sources etc: I wouldn't call it meta level though.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

It seems like it's been going on for long enough for them to do sampling and sequencing and work out exactly what it is - the fact is being called a 'mystery' again implies to me is likely a new Covid/Sars Cov virus.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Main symptoms reported so far: Fever • Headache • Nasal discharge and cough • Difficulty breathing • Anemia Are they getting pneumonia?

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

I have to say that given the symptoms: this was also my first thoughts on this outbreak and until such time as more information is given - it does seem the most likely given the symptom list.

Antonio Vargas B
@Anto731

There are many Covid symptoms in people from Congo, probability of a
new variant?

11:05 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 254 Views

...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Anemia is not really something you see in many viruses - Covid is one of the few where it's well-known to cause anemia (among many other weird blood things it does)...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

This virus is very odd: they list anemia as one of the main symptoms: but there's no explanation as to why: is it through blood loss?

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

2) The reported symptoms in patients include:
. Fever
. Headache
. Nasal discharge and cough
. Difficulty breathing
· Anemia

9:16 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 10.9K Views

...

4

t7 38

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Might be a good time to remind everyone that Eric was the first western scientist to warn the world about the serious thread posed by Covid - loudly and publicly...

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

MYSTERY EPIDEMIC IN CONGO-Health officials investigate a new
unidentified mystery flu-like disease in southwest Congo after 143
deaths, mostly in kids. WHO has now been dispatched according to
sources.

AP

ASSOCIATED PRESS
apnews.com

Health officials investigate mystery disease in southwest Congo after 143 deaths

From apnews.com

9:15 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 24.1K Views

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Reposted by Chris Turnbull

David it Up! @david.notesforfriends.com · 02/12/2024

ALERT 🚨 Very Significant Study on Long Covid Brain Damage: How COVID-19’s Spike Protein Affects the Brain, via Skull Bone Marrow Infection COVID-19 has always been one of complexity, but within its long narrative, one chilling chapter is emerging—the role of our own bones in harboring (1/23)

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Of course, because violates accepted dogmas - which is why it should have attention and further exploration.

000

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Of course not: because it violates the accepted dogmas.

000

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

This was published in 2021 and used data from first wave.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

The fact that Covid attacks so severely the high IQ/gifted feels almost symbolic of the lived experience as a whole: there is in-built into seemingly everything a punishment for these abilities.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

...maintain Covid awareness and continue to practice it.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

...from the experience of dealing with these things - the outsider (to attempt to label the experience) - throughout life - the fact that Covid itself is likely to be much more severe with in our population: as shown by this study: just adds yet more weight to the need to...

110

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Given the high levels of neurodiversity - especially ADHD, autism etc - with in the Covid aware community - and all that it brings with it: social exclusion, mockery etc - I think it likely the reason so many are able to cope with all this is precisely because it comes...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

There is definitely something to their hypothesis - I think it probably extends - at least from my experience - to not just Covid, but all viruses seem to be much more severe: Covid is extreme example - as it seems to be for everything.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

As I have ADHD and quite like autism, as well, as being in those so-called 'gifted' categories at school - including athletically I will say first hand I've always been much more prone to disease and seemingly endless infections (before current masked - pre Covid state)

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

The counter-balance to this is that high IQ/gifted people are more likely to try to avoid Covid - and this study shows good reason for it to be so.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Again: these findings are likely to apply to adults too as is stated in the study itself. It would be interesting to see a Long Covid specific study to see if the same link is found: I suspect it would be. Study link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

High intelligence may exacerbate paediatric inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 infection

The body’s innate and acquiredimmunesystems are critical in responses to a wide spectrum of assaults, including SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify stud…

120

Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

19-year-old who died from Covid: 'Incredibly tired for two weeks… it was secretly attacking his body in a way they have never seen before' MEMBER OF THE 2018 USSSA National Championship Team...

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Lots of outstanding and star athletes here - further supporting the hypothesis of the study: 'A talented basketball player...all-time leading scorer...member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team'

19

(male)

USA

Death (COVID-19; Positive
"incredibly tired
for two weeks ... it
was secretly
attacking his body
in a way they have
never seen before")

WFRB [38], New
York Times [39]

19

(male)

Canada Death (COVID-19) Positive CBC [40]

USA

(male)

Recovered (COVID- Positive, GoFundMe [41],
19 (mild symptoms Negative The Fresno Bee
for about a week,
then chills, body
aches, high fever,
open-heart
surgery, existing
heart

malformation
found and valves
on verge of failure)

and
Positive

[42]

"a talented

basketball

player" "all-
time leading
scorer"

"member of the
2018 USSSA
National

Championship
team"

"Star athlete"
"demonstrated

academic and

athletic

perseverance"

"Great student. 19
Great athlete"
“played
football,

baseball and
track" "named
the

homecoming
king his senior
year"

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Sadly, this is what Covid deniers want: a world in which everybody is as ignorant, selfish and cruel as themselves: and sadly that is the world they are increasingly creating.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

'Exceptional...National Honors Society inductee..had so much going on for her…future was bright' died at just 17 from Covid: 'Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home)'

exceptional"
"National

Honors Society
inductee" "had

so much going
on for her, ...

future was

bright"

"extremely
bright"
"schedule was

vigorous - top
academic

courses,

including

organic
chemistry" "She
picked up
things so fast"

17

(female)

USA

cadiomegaly)

Death (COVID-19;
died two weeks

after testing
positive; found
unresponsive in
home)

Positive

BuzzFeed [26],
NBCDFW [27]

18

(female)

USA

Death (COVID-19)

Not

reported Voice [28]

The Citizens'

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

'A curious student...what you want every student to be..lover of books… always sneaking in extra reading time during classes, even during math...leader' A 9-year-old girl who died from Covid after it caused her to be paralyzed and have brain inflammation.

"intelligent"
“bright"

8

(female)

USA

"A smart child" 9
“phenomenal"

USA

(female)

CNN [5],
Obituary [6]]

"a curious

student" “what

you want every
student to be"

"lover of

books ... always
sneaking in

extra reading
time during
classes, even

during math"
"leader"

9

USA

(female)

Death (COVID-19;
paralysis in her
arms and legs;
brain

inflammation)

Positive
(post-
mortem)

Positive WLWT [7], The
Highland

County Press
[8], Spectrum
News 1 [9]

Death (COVID-19; Positive
anosmial, died
4days after testing
positive)

Death (COVID-19)

News Observer
[4]

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

'A very intelligent and mature girl for her age..learning English at lightning speed' - 6-year-old girl killed by the virus. This list is truly heart-breaking.

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Chris Turnbull @enemyinastate.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

...who died after developing a rare form of Covid meningitis and brain swelling after less than 2 weeks after being on a ventilator...

Table 1. News and social media reports of severe paediatric COVID-19
outcomes from March 15 to September 30 2020.

Evidence of a Age(sex) Country Outcome
high IQ

"a bright little
girl"

3

(female)

USA

Death (COVID-19)

Information

source(s)

New York Daily
News [1]

“very bright”
"smart little

cookie"

5

USA

(female)

"a very
intelligent and
mature girl for
her age"
"learning
English at
lightning
speed"

“intelligent”
“bright"

6

(female)

USA

COVID-
19 test

Positive
(post-

mortem)

Death (COVID-19; Positive ABC News [2]
developed rare
form of meningitis
and brain
swelling; died
<2weeks after on
ventilator)

Death (COVID-19) Positive Tampa Bay
Times [3]

8

USA

(female)

Death (COVID-19; Positive News Observer
anosmial, died
4days after testing
positive)

[4]

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