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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Oh and...The Undersea War is six days away.

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Australia is creating a brilliant backup plan to allow its financial system to keep operating - think debit cards payments for food - in case its cables are cut. It's an unlikely scenario - but important to prepare for. Learn from Australia! www.ft.com/content/fba5... (Me @financialtimes.com)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

My farewell column for @politico.eu, about the costs to businesses targeted by Russian greyzone attacks. You can now find me as a defence and security commentator at @news.sky.com and, of course, at the wonderful @foreignpolicy.com. www.politico.eu/article/euro.... No paywall.

politico.eu

Europe’s businesses are paying for Russia’s hybrid war

The continent is finally naming Moscow’s gray-zone aggression for what it is. Now it has to deal with the bill.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

"Braw's writing sparkles." Chuffed about this @financialtimes.com verdict of The Undersea War. www.ft.com/content/f5ca...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

And now a warning from Macron too. There are clearly indications that Russia is planning to escalate in the greyzone.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This week, greyzone warnings from: Donald Tusk Alexander Stubb The UK government And a young man has pleaded guilty to vandalising British mosques on behalf of Russia www.bbc.com/news/article.... Anyone can be targeted. It's great to see resilience efforts underway in several countries.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

This spring Norway, the UK and the US caught Russian submarines training to unleash a secret weapon designed to disable critical undersea cables, Reuters reports. Only unnamed sources, but potentially very troubling news. The undersea war... (The Undersea War, incidentally, is 28 days away.)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Greyzone acts: to attribute or not attribute? These days, Russian greyzone acts are so brazen that targeted countries will need to publicly attribute them. That's what Germany just did - whereupon Lavrov accused it of starting a war. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/08/g... Me @foreignpolicy.com.

foreignpolicy.com

Berlin Is Shedding Light on the Gray Zone

Are European countries finally ready to publicly call out Russian sabotage?

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Cognitive dissonance in the Strait of Hormuz. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/01/h... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Major subsea cable news from Finland. An appeals court has reversed Helsinki District Court's decision from last year and ruled that the case of the Eagle S - which struck five cables on Christmas Day 2024 - can be prosecuted under Finnish law. More will certainly follow.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

A journalist just sent me this photo: her advance copy of The Undersea War.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

This summer, Ukraine carried out a drone campaign against ships linked to Russia's war. Now Russia has ramped up its own attacks against all manner of ships, now also using drones. Ships will have to buy anti-drone gear. An arms race is looming. www.politico.eu/article/dron... Me @politico.eu.

politico.eu

The drone war is coming for global shipping

We’re entering a phase of geopolitical crisis where merchant vessels at large are facing the risk of attacks.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

The consequences had the Leipzig airport drone exploded as intended are terrifying to contemplate. Those involved in carrying out this deed willingly risked harm to human lives.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Recently Germany has been the target of a remarkable range of Russian greyzone activities: sabotage of cars, plots against CEOs, and now the drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport. That's because Russia is an opportunistic attacker. foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/19/g... Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

An ugly reality is materialising: certain geopolitical actors consider defence execs fair game. Plots against two German CEOs have already been thwarted. A few days ago Russian campers in Sweden prompted concern. Me @financialtimes.com giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/.... Gift link.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The United States has created a new Marine Minerals Administration. The MMA will oversee mining on the continental shelf (which is allowed under UNCLOS). But America is also pursuing mining in international waters. foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/04/t... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Yesterday the spokesman if Iran's foreign ministry said that “under no circumstances will the Strait of Hormuz return to the situation before the war (February 28)". Iran and Oman are negotiating what it will look like. This is why the issue of transit passage is so crucial.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threat Initiative's new report is out - and it's about the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, about transit passage. Transit passage guarantees ships' rights in straits. And it's in peril. www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/sco..., by yours truly. No paywall.

atlanticcouncil.org

Threats to the global maritime order

Learn more about the Atlantic Council's project "Threats to the global maritime order: Protecting the freedom of the seas."

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Britannia, restore governance of the waves. The global maritime order is deteriorating. The UK can lead a global coalition to shore it up. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Another 11 Russian vessels hit by Ukraine in the Sea of Azov. The total tally is now 116 ships (!) over the past nine days. Remarkable figures. One can question the Ukrainians' tactics. But they're succeeding.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Russia is very publicly acknowledging its links to the shadow fleet - by speeding up shadow vessels' reflagging to Russia. One LNG tanker even turned up with a machine gun mounted. That brings risks for coastal states. But an opening too. foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/08/r... Me @foreignpolicy.com.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Big news regarding Nord Stream yesterday: A London judge ruled that the explosions were a war-like act. For @prospectmagazine.co.uk I wrote about the court case - and the new reality in which judges have to define what constitutes war. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/73... No paywall

prospectmagazine.co.uk

What is an act of war?

In a London court, the owner of Nord Stream is squaring off with its insurers over an explosion that hit the pipelines nearly four years ago

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

David Petraeus: "A masterful and compelling book by one of the most insightful observers of modern strategic competition . . . Timely, authoritative, and highly relevant, The Undersea War is essential reading for policymakers, business leaders, and citizens alike." I'm humbled. (Out on 8 Oct)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Poland's acquisition of three new submarines to be made in Sweden is a sign of the times. It's part of the growing undersea protection (more about it in The Undersea War). But also part of fast-growing European cooperation. Great work by all involved.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Great investigative reporting on the shadow fleet, once again, by @danwatch.dk. The machine guns mounted on this Russian shadow tanker are an extremely concerning development. And a reckless provocation by Russia.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Sweden has launched a business council chaired by the CHOD and the DG of the Civil Defence Agency. The council allows the military, civil defence and the private sector to coordinate on crucial issues. A great initiative - at virtually no cost. www.politico.eu/article/hybr.... Me @politico.eu

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

The Russian cyber attack that cost the UK £2 billion. Yes, it was a Russian group that attacked Jaguar Land Rover last summer, @nytimes.com reports. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/w...

nytimes.com

A $2.5 Billion Whodunit: The Hack That Dented the U.K. Economy

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Now the MOU has been formally signed. But Trump says the US can start bombing again. And the MOU says Iran will "make arrangements using its best efforts" to allow safe passage of commercial vessels through the SoH without charges for 60 days. Will shipping return to somewhat normal levels?

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Hormuz: Let the oil flow, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. But can ships take him at his word? And who will, in fact, administer the maritime procession through the strait, including the order? foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/17/t... Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

foreignpolicy.com

Can Ships in the Gulf Take Trump at His Word?

Amid the uncertainty of Trump’s deal, how will ships decide when to leave the Persian Gulf?

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

(And: The Undersea War is less than four months away...)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Subsea cable ownership is changing. Massive cables used to be owned by multinational consortia. Now US hyperscalers can afford their own cables (designed for their own traffic). This brings risks. Think two-tier traffic. Think national security. www.ft.com/content/f0d8... Me @financialtimes.com

ft.com

Tech’s private subsea cables are a threat to everyone else

By building their own data highways, American hyperscalers are creating a national security risk for other countries

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Finland is energetically tackling cable incidents using the power of the law. Now it has charged the captain and another officer on the Fitburg, which hit cables on New Year's Eve. yle.fi/a/74-20231651

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Russia's use of gig agents: Acts as different as arson attacks against Keir Starmer and vandalism of London mosques were instigated by Russia and carried out by locals. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... Great work by the police and investigative journalists, who have uncovered the links.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

This morning the UK followed through on its promise to board shadow vessels. Good news. Sweden, Finland, France and others have already conducted numerous boardings. This has become indispensable as the shadow fleet becomes more brazen. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... (report from April)

atlanticcouncil.org

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

The shadow fleet—a collection of vessels transporting sanctioned cargo outside the official shipping system—has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Does a stray drone - like the one that struck a block of flats in Romania a few days ago - constitute an attack? @thespectator1828.bsky.social asked me to elaborate. Naturally, I also included wise observations from @oanalungescu.bsky.social. spectator.com/article/does...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

In parts of Europe, national defence is becoming a popular movement. Eg: in Sweden, the government needs motorcycle couriers who can transport crucial items in case of a crisis - and people are signing up. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... Me @theguardian.com. No paywall.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Europe's business advantage: the rule of law. And that's a crucial advantage, because without the rule of law it's impossible for businesses to plan. And what they want most of all is the ability to plan. www.politico.eu/article/euro... Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

I have good news: Western multinationals are turning patriotic. Only 16% now say they'd put profit ahead of the national interest. Remarkable times. Me @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

What constitutes an act of war? That matters greatly, because greyzone ("hybrid") activities are exploding. Now a London high court judge will have to define war. She's about to rule in the Nord Stream case. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/73... (Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall)

prospectmagazine.co.uk

What is an act of war?

In a London court, the owner of Nord Stream is squaring off with its insurers over an explosion that hit the pipelines nearly four years ago

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

The EU is planning to reshore some manufacturing of critical medicines. A laudable and important effort. Healthcare is part of national security. foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/13/h... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.) Pictured: a vivid memor of PPE shortages during Covid.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

The suspension of US delivery of defence equipment (like ammunition to Estonia - orders that the buyers had already paid for) will cause allies and partners to buy more equipment elsewhere. foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/29/t... Estonia must now find ammo elsewhere. Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Some countries are busy strengthening their defence and that of NATO. This week and next Sweden is conducting a significant exercise (Aurora 26) It's doing so with 11 other NATO members plus Ukrainian drone forces. That's how it's done.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

A mysterious Russian wanted to buy a struggling golf club - located near the railway serving the UK's main submarine-manufacturing shipyard. When @financialtimes.com started investigating, he pulled out www.ft.com/content/19a3... (with comments by yours truly)

ft.com

Russian oilman tried to buy golf course on railway to British nuclear site

Purchase of Lake District club collapsed this week after government officials and the FT raised questions over strategic location

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

With fossil fuels trapped in the Persian Gulf, dams (and the reservoirs that store the water) are looking highly attractive. And they're located right in Europe. My latest column for @politico.eu.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

The shadow fleet: there's good news and bad news. - Baltic Sea countries are inspecting, boarding and detaining more shadow vessels. - But shadow vessels are becoming more brazen. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... The latest @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats report. No paywall.

atlanticcouncil.org

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

The shadow fleet—a collection of vessels transporting sanctioned cargo outside the official shipping system—has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Three ships have been fired on in the Strait of Hormuz today - so far. The circumstances are unclear. But one thing is clear: ships and seafarers are on the frontline of a conflict in which they have no role.

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