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daniel a. smith

@electionsmith.bsky.social
5.8K followers 158 following 127 posts

political science professor; state politics scholar (direct democracy, voting, elections); cynic, skeptic, & part-time africanist; personal musings

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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 20h
Florida’s Immigrant Electorate has Drifting GOP, but Only Two Groups Have Flipped from D to R electionsmith.substack.com/p/floridas-i...
electionsmith.substack.com
Florida’s Immigrant Electorate has Drifting GOP, but Only Two Groups Have Flipped from D to R
Cuban and Venezuelan-born registered voters in Florida have the
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Reposted by daniel a. smith
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 30/09/2026
#OpenAccess from State Politics and Policy Quarterly - Laboratories of Electoral Democracies: What Have We Learned from a Quarter Century of Research on Voting and Elections in the American States? - cup.org/3TU9zpc - Joseph A. Coll, Enrijeta Shino & @electionsmith.bsky.social #FirstView
Logo of "State Politics & Policy Quarterly" next to a stylized map of the United States.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Party Registration Patterns in Florida of Naturalized Citizens born in Latin America electionsmith.substack.com/p/party-regi...
electionsmith.substack.com
Party Registration Patterns in Florida of Naturalized Citizens born in Latin America
Given the turbulence over the past nine months or so, concerns about immigration enforcement and potential ICE overreach have become increasingly salient within Latino communities, extending well beyo...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
theconversation.com/gerrymanderi...
theconversation.com
Gerrymandering is unpopular with Florida voters – my recent survey shows why DeSantis pushed it through anyway
Florida voters don’t like Gov. DeSantis’ redistricting plans, but it doesn’t tend to be a vote-determining issue.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Leader-Motivated Behavior: Voting by Mail in the 2020 General Election academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
academic.oup.com
Leader-Motivated Behavior: Voting by Mail in the 2020 General Election
Abstract. There is a large body of scholarship that probes the association of elite messaging and motivated reasoning with political behavior. Few studies,
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Gov. DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting Special Session starts next week. How palatable are new congressional lines to Florida voters? electionsmith.substack.com/p/principle-...
electionsmith.substack.com
Principle or Partisanship?
Florida Voters, Partisan Advantage, and the Politics of Mid-Decade Redistricting
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Gov. DeSantis' mid-decade redistricting Special Session starts next week. How palatable are new congressional lines to Florida voters? electionsmith.substack.com/p/principle-...
electionsmith.substack.com
Principle or Partisanship?
Florida Voters, Partisan Advantage, and the Politics of Mid-Decade Redistricting
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Principle or Partisanship?
Florida Voters, Partisan Advantage, and the Politics of Mid-Decade Redistricting
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Florida’s Hispanic Electorate: A Dramatic Shift in Party Alignment open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Florida’s Hispanic Electorate: A Dramatic Shift in Party Alignment
…but is it Ephemeral?
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
How will Trump Running Venezuela Play in the U.S.? open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
How will Trump Running Venezuela Play in the U.S.?
A Quick Look at Venezuela-born U.S. Citizens Registered to Vote in Florida
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Nice to see this out! Open access @plosone.org journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
journals.plos.org
Treating a friend to voter registration in a Divided America
As partisanship strengthens in the United States, unaffiliated voter registration is also increasing. We conducted an original survey experiment to understand voter registration choices among register...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Well, it's finally out... watermark02.silverchair.com/qqaf107.pdf?...
watermark02.silverchair.com
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting" is now out at Electoral Studies www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting
Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly…
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
"Welcome to the Free State of Florida"
In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
News Flash: Restricting Voter Registration Activities Deters Voters from Registering
Voter Registration Crisis in Florida
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Trump and Mail Voting
Haven't we heard this before?
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Continue to be awed by my old man, now in his 90th year, Emeritus prof at Penn State, who founded the field of sport history. Walter Byers and the NCAA | University of Tennessee Press share.google/8aBlmclCEJhC...
share.google
Walter Byers and the NCAA | University of Tennessee Press
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
To all those who celebrate #InternationalJazzDay a little of George Gershwin's Embraceable You by Jim Snidero and friends at the Bird's Eye Jazz Club in Basel
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Now out at State Politics and Policy Quarterly www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Not a Teammate and Not a Fan: Probing the Identities of Unaffiliated Registered Voters | State Politics & Policy Quarterly | Cambridge Core
Not a Teammate and Not a Fan: Probing the Identities of Unaffiliated Registered Voters - Volume 25 Issue 2
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
In light of the latest ICE crackdown in Miami, I’m ungating my Substack analysis from a couple weeks ago on the support for Trump in Doral. open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
As the Miami Herald reports, "Doral, Miami-Dade’s Venezuelan stronghold, to empower cops in Trump immigration crackdown"
At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Which Precinct in Doral is the Trumpiest?
At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Nearly 1/5 Miami-Dade voters were born in Cuba and 57% are Republicans. Nearly 82% of GOP Cuba-born U.S. citizens voted in the 2024 GE.
With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation. Will these actions erode Cuban-American...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Congratulations, Michael Wines, on your retirement from the @nytimes.com. And thank you for breaking this bellwether story back in 2021 on the crackdown on faculty free speech at UF. www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/u...
nytimes.com
Florida Bars State Professors From Testifying in Voting Rights Case (Published 2021)
After being hired as expert witnesses for groups opposing a restrictive voting law, three University of Florida academics were told they could not participate in the lawsuit against the state.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
electionsmith.substack.com/p/what-do-we...
electionsmith.substack.com
What do we know about Cuba-born registered voters in South Florida?
With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
"Federal authorities in South Florida have recently detained at least 18 Cubans." My next Substack post for subscribers will be a deep dive into changes in party registration & turnout of the more than 460K Cuban-born registered voters in FL, 305K in Miami-Dade www.miamiherald.com/news/local/i...
miamiherald.com
‘Deport every person under the sun’: ICE detains Cubans during immigration appointments
Beatriz Monteagudo and Laura de la Caridad Sanchez are two Cuban women detained by ICE after routine appointments in Miramar. More than a dozen others were also possibly detained.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Will the deportation of Venezuelans affect the party registrations of Doral voters?
At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
And also pleased to see this decision by a Federal District Court Judge in Ohio concerning the rights of citizens to amend the state constitution via the initiative process. Several direct democracy scholars and I submitted an amicus brief on behalf of the plaintiffs. electionlawblog.org?p=149008
electionlawblog.org
Federal court finds Ohio's "fair and truthful" review of ballot initiatives runs afoul of Anderson-Burdick #ELB
Decision in Brown v. Yost, stayed pending appeal to the Sixth Circuit: Citizens of Ohio have the power to amend the state constitution. Proponents of an amendment must follow a process that culminates...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Highlighting some good news on the legal front. Proud to have served as an expert for the HAUL plaintiffs, working with the amazing attorneys at NAACP LDF, to successfully challenge SB 1 in TX. www.naacpldf.org/press-releas...
naacpldf.org
Federal Court Strikes Down Restrictive, Suppressive Texas Voting Measures in S.B. 1 that Limited Voting Assistance
Media Contacts:  LDF, media@naacpldf.org The Arc, dilworth@thearc.orgDelta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., inquiries@deltasigmatheta.orgArentFox Schiff, nathan.carlile@afslaw.comRay Shackelfo
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
From the Nathan Thurm School of Law... www.npr.org/2025/03/13/n...
npr.org
DHS official defends Mahmoud Khalil arrest, but offers few details on why it happened
Homeland Security deputy secretary Troy Edgar offered few details on the Trump administration's legal reasoning to deport Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
This is insane: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
whitehouse.gov
Addressing Risks from Perkins Coie LLP
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose. The
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
In honor of the passing of Robert Clark open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
In honor of the passing of Robert Clark
A note on the election of African American state legislators in the modern South
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
I'm hoping some of you might be interested in making a charitable contribution to support UF students working with @electproject.bsky.social and me in our Election Lab. Here's the direct link to give: Election Science Group Fund (023435) www.uff.ufl.edu/giving-oppor...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Some musings on method of votes cast in Florida
Fewer than one-in-four Republicans voted on Election Day in the 2024 General Election
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
www.axios.com/local/tampa-...
axios.com
DeSantis proposals would be "kiss of death" for citizen-led ballot measures, experts say
Floridians would effectively lose access to a policy-making avenue they've used to increase the state minimum wage, legalize medical marijuana and more.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
www.axios.com/local/tampa-...
axios.com
DeSantis takes aim at citizen initiatives, citing abortion amendment
DeSantis' comments signal that he expects lawmakers to tighten the amendment process.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Disabling the Vote
Happy also to be presenting this updated paper with Michael Herron at the Southern Political Science Association annual meeting in Puerto Rico this week.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
“Welcome to the Free State of Florida”: In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State
New evidence that DeSantis' anti-woke rhetoric and Trump's move to Florida has helped turn the Sunshine State red.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Cool podcast on Ballotpedia, "Citizen Initiatives: The history of giving power to the people"
My conversation begins at 1:02:22, where I try to "peel back the curtain on the political tug-of-war between legislatures and citizens over ballot measures." Check it out!
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Reposted by daniel a. smith
Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
North Carolina can no longer be considered to have a representative democracy. This is the Republican model for the entire country. Believe Trump when he said you will never have to vote again
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Musings about North Carolina's contested Supreme Court election
With data on which registered voters don't have ID on file in NC and Florida
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 05/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Coming into today, here's the Turnout Gender Gap by county in Florida
If there are going to be any surprises in Florida, it will be due to the strong turnout of female voters, particularly Republican women voting for Democrats and Amendment 4
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 05/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Non-UOCAVA VBM ballots in Florida are due at county SOEs today by 7pm.
Here's some info on where we are with VBM ballots in the Sunshine State
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Turnout so far by Day, Party, and Gender in Florida, with one day left before Election Day
Women are dominating turnout in Florida. Over 881k more women than men have cast their ballots in Florida.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
What's the Race/Ethnic Breakdown of Early In-Person & VBM Ballots Cast in Florida?
Hispanic voters turned out over the weekend; Black turnout continues to lag.
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
The Florida Vote
VBM and EIP Votes Cast in Florida, by Date, Type, and Party
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 03/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Turnout of Black, Hispanic, White, and voters of Other races/ethnicities in Florida
A Saturday night bonus for subscribers…here are maps of turnout by Race/Ethnicity across Florida’s 67 counties as of this morning.ElectionSmith is a reader-supported publication.
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Reposted by daniel a. smith
Scholars Strategy Network @scholars.org · 01/11/2024
Florida leans red in registration, but unaffiliated or 'inactive" voters may tell a different story. In this Conversation US OpEd, @electionsmith.bsky.social explains how abortion & cannabis ballot measures could mobilize Democrats. Read more: theconversation.com/abortion-and...
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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 03/11/2024
open.substack.com/pub/election...
open.substack.com
Hot Take: Florida looking grim for Democrats...
With only one day of Sunday Early In-Person voting left in (mostly) Florida's larger counties, Republicans continue to dominate turnout.
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