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Juan Elcano

@elcanojs.bsky.social
83 followers 108 following 211 posts

Sailor, photographer, economist and live-aboard, chronic dromomania #politicsfreefeed

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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Some thoughts after a rough night at anchor 😅. NotebookLM is quite impressive.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Arriving
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Deck Drinks
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
🙌🏻
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
None of this replaces the surface forecast. It sits upstream of it. Surface charts tell you what to do tomorrow. The 500 chart tells you where you should already be. At displacement speed, that's the more expensive question to get wrong.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
heap way I test it. One line per run in the log: run date, lat/long of the trough centre, its height in dam. Three runs clustering within ~200 nm — real. Wandering 400 nm a run — the model is guessing. Thirty seconds a day, and most of what a spread plot gives you.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Caveat, and it's a big one. Cut-off lows — closed upper lows detached from the westerlies — are the worst-handled feature in numerical forecasting. Position errors of several hundred miles and 2–3 days at range are routine, not exceptional. A day-7 trough is a question, not an answer.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The useful question isn't "will Spain get hit". It's where the upper low sits relative to you — that sets which side the weather arrives from. Low to the west: onshore, wet, the exposed quarter. Ridge overhead: nothing. Low overhead: light, thundery, no steering.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
What that buys, at 120 nm a day: 7 days' notice — about 800 nm of options. 3 days — 350 nm. 24 hours — whatever's downwind. The surface forecast becomes trustworthy right about when the options run out. That's the whole argument.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The detail at day 7 is worthless. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But the pattern — where the trough sits, whether it's cut off, which way it's drifting — is often right long before the surface forecast is. The 500 chart degrades gracefully. Surface charts don't.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The weather isn't under the spin maximum. It's downwind of it, where spin is arriving and air is being stretched upward. Typically 100–300 nm ahead. Surface lows form and deepen slightly downwind of the upper spin max — often before the surface chart admits it.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I overlay relative vorticity — the spin of the air at that level. Warm colours: cyclonic spin, air being drawn upward. Cool colours: sinking, suppressed, clear. Yardstick — at 50°N the Earth's own rotation is worth about 11 on the usual 10^-5/s scale.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The chart is a slice at constant pressure, not constant altitude — so it isn't flat. The 500 hPa surface is a wobbly sheet draped across the sky: sagging over cold air, bulging over warm. The contours are its topography. Valleys are troughs (lows), hills are ridges (highs).
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Our home makes 5 knots. 120 nm a day. That number quietly changes what a weather forecast is for. By the time the surface charts are trustworthy, I'm already committed to wherever I happen to be. Which is why my mornings now start with the 500 mb chart.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Nice bubble mate.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Their chatter blends in with the soft lapping of the water against the hull. Then suddenly the day wakes around you, the traffic on the promenade increases, buses and commuters are on the go, a train zooms by and it's time to mind your own business. Good morning.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
The taste of a freshly brewed coffee and a soft breeze on your body. The rising sun is wrapping your body in a gentle, warm doona. You observe two friends catching up at the beach and going for a swim, connecting before the day unfolds.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Escargot pace at the Côte. Pure French Riviera feeling.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Just sounds like a normal passage 😁
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
You can get fined by the Italian Coastguard for carrying an outboard motor on your vessel while not having it mentioned in your insurance papers. A friend of mine paid 600€. Called my insurance company and they confirmed, even my 1.5 HP electro outboarder needs to be registered. #sailorbeware
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Absolutely spot on. 🙌🏻
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Never get tired of this evening vibe. #sailing #Roma #closereach #porttack
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
What a start 🙏🏻, Grazie Bella Italia. If you sail along the southern coast of Sicily, consider the marina in Scoglitti. Great protection and marina infrastructure, Giuseppe and Franco will help you wherever the can and the espresso in town is magnificent.
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Reposted by Juan Elcano
SeaNews @seanews.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
⚠️NATO military exercise with live weapons firing from Feb 22 to Mar 6 in Central Mediterranean Sea (NAVAREA III 0027/26). Navy vessels may be unlit & unpredictable. Caution advised. #SafetyAtSea
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
A brand new graphical interface. Super easy to receive the relevant data for your passage in the Med. This could be a game changer! Anybody worked with this?
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
I am looking for navigational warnings data for my boat brain project and I came across the official webpage of the Spanish Armada. Good info's there. Especially the link to the "Portal i-avisos". armada.defensa.gob.es/ihm/Aplicaci...
armada.defensa.gob.es
Radioavisos NAVAREA / NAVAREA Warnings
Radioavisos NAVAREA / NAVAREA Warnings
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Have a great passage. Do you still need to call the "compamare" when you enter Trapani port?
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
So true mate. A very unique experience.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Well done 💪🏻.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
One of your masterpieces 👏🏻
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Well said 👏🏻
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Step 1 done! #bostbrain
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Pristine 👌🏻
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
Reflecting 2025
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
And all of this because we are not able to pick the right sources/accounts and therefore choose to read then slop. I find that actually uplifting, because it means it is our own responsibility and we have agency to change it. Excited for 2026!
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
They are so elegant #blackswan
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Glad you recover mate. Enjoy yourself.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Nothing says 'standard time' like a Krupp gun pointed at your midday meeting. Synchronize watches... or else. #Wellington #Te-Ika-a-Māui
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Btw, still miss my boat
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Aotearoa ❤️
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The South Island feels like home. Miss my boat. #Glenorchy
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Great adventure mate.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Blown away by New Zealand. Miss my boat.
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Reposted by Juan Elcano
Ocean Cruising Club @oceancruisingclub.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
dlvr.it
Cruisers rescuing cruisers
Three cheers for the crew of S/V Seamer who had been relaxing in New Zealand’s Bay of Islands after arriving from Fiji. When they heard that a fellow cruiser needed help they sailed 200nm to help. In mid November a 37’ French boat, S/V Tiboulen, lost its rudder on passage between Fiji and New Zealand with 390 miles  to go.
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Could not agree more
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Meeting inspired people and capturing their stories. Hell yeah. #Brisbane #V2Expo
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
On the water again, just a bit faster than usual. #fushing #boating #Queensland
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Why not design your prompt like this?
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Just another day at the office #dredging #goldcoast
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Juan Elcano @elcanojs.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Golden Hour at Gold Coast #queensland
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