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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas

@eebrandsaas.bsky.social
2K followers 480 following 78 posts

🇳🇴🇮🇸🇺🇸 Economist at Federal Reserve Board. Housing, macroeconomics, and household finance is my jam. And cross-country skiing. www.eebrandsaas.com

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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Wow, this is so cool! So much information laid out so clearly...! Excess mortality for young women 100 years is maternal mortality? And then you can see young men suddenly doing risky behavior risky post WWII?
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I samme gate: Hvis du ikke har lest den anbefaler jeg den relativt nye biografien om Erik Brofoss av Helge Røed
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Reposted by Eirik Eylands Brandsaas
Joe Fish @sadbusdriver.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Okay, some meta-commentary on this, which I think has troubling implications for good science 1. it's good this criticism happened 2. criticism was possible because Stacy Et Al were unusually good w/ disclosing data 3. criticism is probs bad for stacy et al 4. thus, incentives are to not share data
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Takk - la oss si 65🇳🇴-35🇮🇸! *Jeg er nok lavt nok på hiarkiet og rangstigen til at jobben (heldigvis) ikke er for spennende.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Jeg skal ikke blande meg inn i debatten (det ville neppe vært populært på jobb...) men jeg vil bare si takk til deg og @torodin.bsky.social for at dere tar den! Jeg lærer noe nytt i nesten hver melding!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Hey Joey, you may like this paper I wrote on data center investment: see the animated forecast evolution below. Paper: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... Updated results: github.com/eirikbrandsa...
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
High-five Joanna! I just got an R&R on my JMP, a long path indeed. Just six years after we became JMCs...
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Also, Why so little effort connecting the good spots? Greenbrier's beautiful but isolated trail (better connection to R29 overpass trail coming this fall). Why not link it and the Rivanna Trail to the Butterfly Greenway via the rail culvert? And why does that trail dead-end at McIntire recycling?
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
I thought the movie was pretty good! Though judging by the wikipedia picture the stylist did Gösta dirty en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6...
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Grattis! Likte alltid dette paperet og viser ofte til det når jeg diskuterer leiemarkedet med medforfattere!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
And another link to the paper, if you're still here: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... (4/4)
federalreserve.gov
Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment with Project-level Data
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
In the end, if you have data on plans, estimates for typical times from plan to start, start to completion, and crucially the abandonment rate of projects, you can quite easily estimate, nowcast, and forecast magnitudes and timing of investment. (3/4)
This chart shows the range of estimated data center investment. From almost zero dollars in 2023, data center investment is expected to reach about $300 billion in 2026, first quarter (5-95th percentiles: $175-$475 billion).
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
What we tried to do with this paper was to minimize the role of judgement or researcher degrees of freedom. Most forecasts/discussion of data centers and AI depends on whether the writer is bearish or bullish on AI. (2/4)
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Are you sick of reading about data centers? If not: In a new paper, we developed a simple method to forecast data center investment using project-level microdata on $1.3 TRILLION in announced plans. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
The stock of plans (data center construction projects that are neither started or abandoned) have increased from $0 to $1.3 trillion in about 18 months!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
That is incredibly cool! I wonder how often this spurs a new paper or influences which outcomes a paper reports.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Haha, me too! I'm all ears if you have ideas on how to test the theory empirically!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Moreover, getting the money for the down payment is just half the game, as I show in my paper on the bank if mom and dad papers.eebrandsaas.com/Homeownershi... Likely another well-meant housing policy that chiefly benefits wealthier of children of wealthier households.
papers.eebrandsaas.com
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Flytta til Charlottesville fra DC forrige uke pga. konas jobb på sykehuset der. (Tenkte at dette var enda en dårlig norsk amerika-kritikk fra noen som aldri har bodd her, men da så jeg at du har bodd i USA noen år!)
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Stilig! Gleder meg til å lese den når den kommer frem til... Charlottesville, VA!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
What do you mean allowed? From work? Partner? Kids? I have a self-imposed limit of five work trips per year.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Hot take: The best new Haven style pizza is One6Three in East Rock. Their sweet and salami is so good. They're more consistent than the old school places. Also their Caesar salad is amazing. (And mashed potato pie is bad)
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Realizing how happy this beer made me led me into a minor existential crisis 🍻
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Greit poeng det! Fikk foresten "Pabbi" i julegave, gleder meg veldig til å lese den!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Hvor lenge er i lengden? Carnegie, Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, Gates, osv. Er vel ikke så mye mer grotesk ulikhet i dag enn det var for 10, 50, 100, og 200 år siden?
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Honorary mention: Partial Ownership: A Quantitative Analysis by Brandsaas and Kvaerner. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... Why? I’m self-centered (😎) and I just find the contract—that allows you to choose how much to own and how much to rent—interesting!
federalreserve.gov
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
The Value of Heterogeneous Mortgage Contracts by Boutros, Clara, and Kartashova michaelboutros.com @mi First(?) paper properly including a choice between adjustable or fixed-rate mortgages, nicely illustrates how contract “details” benefit different households, and implications for monetary policy.
michaelboutros.com
Michael Boutros
Research Website for Michael Boutros
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Credit Card Borrowing in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: Reconciling Theory and Data by Maxted and Lee petermaxted.com Again, challenging conventional wisdom, it’s striking how many have revolving credit card debt, and great use of model and data to speak on an important topic.
petermaxted.com
Peter Maxted
Use this space to add a brief description of your project.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Anarkulova, Cederburg, and O’Doherty. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Changed my portfolio choices(!), we should have more papers challenging conventional wisdom, and the use of multi-country asset returns is important.
papers.ssrn.com
Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice
<div> We challenge two tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) <span>reduce equity allocations with age.  An op
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
My 2024 “top 3” of interesting papers and presentations:
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Klasseforskjell. Beklager Pål, men det blir som å sammenligne New York Rangers med Storhamar Dragons. Jeg overdriver litt, men ikke mye.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
"vi følger situasjonen nøye"
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
I get that feeling sometimes. "Who gives a shit about how people invest in stocks or own homes, there are real problems out there." It must be tough beeing and seeing things first hand. I tell myself that any new knowledge pushes the frontier and opens paths for growth and development.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Er kanskje ikke i Norge, men er jo fra Norge?
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Reposted by Eirik Eylands Brandsaas
Dr. Kaitlyn M. Sims @kaitsims.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
as a junior woman academic, it's hard to figure out how to get invited for opportunities. my go-to strategy is to just ask and take the no's on the chin. so i'm asking: does anyone w/an econ/social science/policy podcast need a guest about DV, welfare, crime, incarceration, or public health?
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
That must have been scary, but way to set an example! We all have errors in our code, but few own up to it the way you did here🍻
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Great list, i already followed half but so many I missed! Could you also add me? Thanks!
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
🏦
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
Using social media as a commitment device: I will not touch a single paper until I finish writing up this one.
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Reposted by Eirik Eylands Brandsaas
Brigitte Roth Tran @brothtran.bsky.social · 24/09/2024
Can anyone recommend resources on using Git specifically for academic research papers/projects? Seems like best practices differ from those for developing an app or a project with A LOT of collaborators. Looking for tips on branches, comments, when to commit, etc. #econsky
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 19/09/2024
You should have seen the number of footnotes before the last rewrite! Aside: your trick of changing margins and then editing away runt/orphan lines has become my favorite way of tightening the writing.
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 18/09/2024
TFW you just submitted a paper to the JFE with enough footnotes a plenty and references to online appendices 😅🤦‍♂️
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 18/09/2024
Hope you have a great trip! Don't forget to go to a public pool, eat something with licorice (my favs: meat marinade, chocolate, or brauð & co's cinnamon bun), try sweet rye bread with butter or shrimp salad, and Kjarvals, and you will love Amma Don bar
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 31/08/2024
And wait til they add the extra story arc about the crown princess' son habitually using cocaine and prolific domestic abuse.. 🇳🇴
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
I should mention that Ella Getz Wold is the first author, and that the paper is written with Knut Are Aastveit, Ragnar Juelsrud, Gisle Natvik, and yours truly. Also, the views expressed are ours and not necessarily those of Norges Bank or the Federal Reserve System
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
For example, we show that if households expects lower price growth the housing channel falls or that stricter mortgage regulation increases the housing channel of wealth persistence (e.g., stricter loan-to-value requirements) 10/10
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
We then include parental transfer in an off-the-shelf life-cycle model of housing. With a standard calibration we recover our reduced-form estimates, corroborating our empirical results. Finally, we show how policy potentially amplifies the housing channel of wealth persistence
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
Result 4: We can use data to understand how parents support their kids. Unsurprisingly, most of it comes from transfers but we also document co-purchasing and intra-family sales (at an eye-popping average discount of $80,000) as important mechanisms 8/10
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
Result 3: What drives wealth persistence? Housing is important, and accounts for 27%! Households with richer parents are two percentage points (12%) more likely to be wealthy *due* to the impact of parental wealth on housing 7/10
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
Result 2: Having parents in the top 50% of wealth increases the probability that you will be in the top 50% by 15 percentage points. This is our benchmark measure for intergenerational wealth persistence. 6/10
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas @eebrandsaas.bsky.social · 28/12/2023
Result 1: We use Norwegian register data and find that parental wealth improves housing outcomes. We use mediation analysis and exogenous variation in parental wealth (stock returns), we find that parental wealth accounts for half of the homeownership gap by parental wealth
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