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France: TURPE grid charges reward batteries for contracting less import capacity than their rated power. A 2-hour BESS at HTA that cuts import to 50% loses €4.5k/MW/yr in day-ahead revenue but saves €7.4k in power fees. At HTB2, where the fee is lower, every cut loses money.

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Yes, if it were explicit that batteries were being saved, being paid for reserve and there being proof that they were being dispatched at peak, then I’d be happy with that.

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Great Britain: September saw BESS revenues hit £99k/MW/year, the best month since December 2022, on day-ahead spreads of £122/MWh. But NESO's dispatch tells a different story. For every 1 MWh of battery volume priced below gas it took, more than 10 MWh sat untaken.

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European BESS financing: tolls underpinned 14 of 53 deals tracked in Q3, more than any other revenue model. The market is moving off merchant exposure faster than the revenue-stacking narrative suggests. Germany led on capacity at 3.5 GW, GB on deal count.

Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

SPP South: battery revenue potential fell to $12.3/kW-month in September, down 14% from August. The interesting part is where it cleared. Day-ahead missed the evening tightness on the 16th entirely, so real-time TB4 spreads hit $2,340/MW against a day-ahead spread of just $316.

Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Great Britain: the 8.2 GW battery fleet was built without subsidies, and developers' returns-first logic produced short-duration assets. Ofgem's cap-and-floor inverts that. It scored 16-18 hour projects at 97.2 against 71.5 for 8-12 hour, ranking system value first and treating returns as a screen.

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Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

NEM: battery revenues rose 12% to $49k/MW/year in September, the best month since April. The driver was cheaper charging, as spring solar pushed midday prices below zero for 30% of intervals in South Australia. Arbitrage now accounts for 98% of revenue. FCAS has gone quiet.

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Spain: higher gas prices and 4 GW more solar widen the TB4 spread 41% in 2027 against the July forecast. Good news for near-term battery revenue, but it fades fast. By 2030 the spread sits 12% lower, as a faster buildout erodes the same margins. Cumulative 2028-2045 revenue ends up flat.

Poland: adding 15-minute intraday and mFRR capacity to the battery stack lifts a 50 MW, 2-hour unit to €109k/MW/year across 2027-2050, 12% above July. The 4-hour gains just 2%. Intraday adds a similar euro amount per MW to both, so it's a bigger share of the shorter battery's total.

Germany: for BESS, the last hour before delivery carries most of the value. A one-hour schedule freeze on a 2-hour battery cuts total revenue by 12%. Stretching that to four hours adds 14.8 percentage points more, taking the total hit to 26.8%. DSOs are writing blanket freezes into FCAs.

Chart: pr1394 oct final freeze duration curve 2h4h

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Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

NEM: South Australia solar led the market in August at $69k/MW/year. By September it fell to a third of that, with prices negative from 10 AM to 4 PM and 46% of available output curtailed. Spring demand dropped as solar kept dispatching into an already crowded midday.

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🎧 Transmission: Poland is skipping the pilot phase. First projects start at 200 MW, a size Germany took five years to reach. And with central dispatch, two identical batteries in different locations earn very different amounts. Over 2 GW expected by 2028 in a grid that peaks near 25 GW.

Transmission podcast: Poland's Battery Market is Skipping the Pilot Phase - Entrix

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Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Poland's solar CfD has paid less than merchant sales for five years running. At the ceiling a farm earns about PLN 201/MWh against PLN 297 merchant, because the top-up settles on the daily average, not what solar captures. Yet developers keep bidding, treating it as a floor.

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Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

All heading to zilch, the only valuable certs are granular ones imo with half hourly matching

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Ed Porter @edporter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Australia: the pitch is that data centre REGO obligations rescue green certificate prices. They won't. New centres add 21 TWh of demand by 2035, but the LRET sunset in 2031 removes 30 million certificates of mandatory surrender while legacy plant becomes eligible to issue. The surplus widens.

Chart: rego new build supply demand 2028 2035

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NYISO: NYSERDA's first storage solicitation targeted 20% of capacity from 8-hour projects. Eight such bids came in, and none won. The one that got there, Lighthouse, did so by reconfiguring after selection, from 250 MW over 4 hours to 140 MW over 8. The duration target didn't clear on price.

Chart: nyiso isc 3 lighthouse bid vs contract

CAISO: merchant battery revenues are on track to settle at $40/kW in 2026, the lowest on record. Yet the investment case holds, because capacity contracts, Resource Adequacy plus offtakes, now account for 80% of BESS revenues in California. The floor is doing the work, not the spread.

Chart: Capacity contracts make up 80% of battery revenues in California

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The ESEM Regional Reference PPA settles against the reference fleet, not the individual asset, so basis risk stays with the seller. In the backcast, the most exposed wind sites carried liabilities up to $73k/MW/year. Solar tracks the fleet more closely and sees steadier downside support.

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