“We never want to be in a situation again where we underestimate the AI.”

“We're nowhere near the ceiling.”

Breaking down 6 years of pretraining progress into data vs model improvements

"This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get."

The OpenAI/Hugging Face attack, clearly explained

The whole OpenAI/Hugging Face story in plain English

Locking in AI safety regulation now is a mistake.

If a human-level software engineer that could run on an H100 equivalent, at current market rates for software engineers, that H100 should rent for over $250k a year. That’s 15x today’s spot price.

And why black holes are the ultimate power plants.

Abolishing pandemics/ Getting out of the way of AI automation/ Learning from Hong Kong MTR's business model

Math is where we’ll see superintelligence first. What will it look like?

Labs are throwing away the most valuable data.

"We see these AIs as a galaxy glittering with capabilities, but at their center, invisible to the naked eye, holding all the constellations together, is an unimaginably massive black hole of data."

"He begged to work for the regime that tortured him."

"We see these AIs as a galaxy glittering with capabilities, but at their center, invisible to the naked eye, holding all the constellations together, is an unimaginably massive black hole of data."

“One robot now turns into many robots next year, but the number of ballerinas is the same.”

If this is your definition of intelligence is "the ability to achieve your goals across a wide variety of domains", then Stalin was the most intelligent person who ever lived.

the verification loop for theories can be on the order of decades and centuries, and even then we know today as the better theory can often actually make worse predictions

AlphaGo is still the cleanest worked example of the primitives of intelligence: search, learning from experience, and self-play.

"Instead of being quiescent, natural selection is everywhere."

It's shocking how much you can deduce about what the labs are doing from a handful of equations and a blackboard

Hodge podge of things I was thinking about this weekend.

The not-so-secret point of this whole contest is so that I can hire a research collaborator

“If our next several years are a trillion dollars in scale, we have the supply chain to do it"

The true story of Einstein, Newton, and Darwin

Plus, why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago

“Preface to the highest stakes negotiations in history.”

Ambassador visiting Renaissance Florence: “Where am I? None of this has existed for a thousand years."

"That's why I'm sending this message of urgency"

Turning my Elon prep into a blog post

“Those who live in software land are about to have a hard lesson in hardware.”

$100/hour, fully remote. Ideal candidate is maybe a grad student/post doc/or working in one of: bio, history, econ, math/physics, AI/hardware.

Nonlinear dynamics and Chaos, Machines of Loving Grace, Max Hodak’s theory of consciousness, Neural network training makes beautiful fractals

The brain's secret sauce is its reward functions, not its architecture.

Piketty was wrong about the past. He’s probably right about the future.

Oil crisis, Sino-Soviet split, ethnic rebellions, and arms build-up

Why I'm moderately bearish in the short term, and explosively bullish in the long term

“These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's a very fundamental thing.”

And implications for RLVR progress

Plus a tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world

Plus, where Russia and China go from here

Fab CapEx overhang, 1 GW a week, China privileged in long timelines, and much else

"The problems are tractable, but they're still difficult”

Life is continuous with Earth’s geochemistry

I have a much better understanding of Sutton’s vision now

Life is continuous with Earth's geochemistry??

Plus, how VLA models work, self-improvement from deployment, and China’s hardware advantage