Reposted by David SmithEconomicsInTen @economicsinten.bsky.social · 11/10/2026Good article as well from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on the likelihood of a financial crisis caused by AI. Even though the GFC lingers in the memory of most economics teachers, it's ancient history to students. Maybe AI will give the students more up-to-date context!!! 🤖 #EconSky 122
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 10/10/2026My Sunday Times column: Nearly twenty years after the global financial crisis, is AI brewing up a new one? The Bank of England’s financial policy committee is among those who are worried: Unlike the last financial crisis, the next danger lurks in plain sight www.thetimes.com/article/1e14...thetimes.comUnlike the last financial crisis, the next danger lurks in plain sightWe have been warned: the rapid change heralded by AI poses many market risks. Plus — John Healey keeps banks guessing before his budget 1910
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 10/10/2026A Sunday Times piece from me on Kemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax proposals. Polls will tell us whether they are good politics but they are very dubious economics: Voters like IHT cuts, but economists? Not so much www.thetimes.com/article/11e0...thetimes.comVoters like IHT cuts, but economists? Not so muchKemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax pledge would turn older homeowners into the ‘bed blockers’ of housing 0197
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 10/10/2026My Sunday Times column: Nearly twenty years after the global financial crisis, is AI brewing up a new one? The Bank of England’s financial policy committee is among those who are worried: Unlike the last financial crisis, the next danger lurks in plain sight www.thetimes.com/article/1e14...thetimes.comUnlike the last financial crisis, the next danger lurks in plain sightWe have been warned: the rapid change heralded by AI poses many market risks. Plus — John Healey keeps banks guessing before his budget 1910
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 10/10/2026A Sunday Times piece from me on Kemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax proposals. Polls will tell us whether they are good politics but they are very dubious economics: Voters like IHT cuts, but economists? Not so much www.thetimes.com/article/11e0...thetimes.comVoters like IHT cuts, but economists? Not so muchKemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax pledge would turn older homeowners into the ‘bed blockers’ of housing 0197
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 06/10/2026My Times piece: UK gilt yields have risen, squeezing the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre. But they have risen by less over the past 12 months than other G7 economies, suggesting the “moron premium” is easing: Is John Healey ready to run with lower fiscal headroom? www.thetimes.com/article/81f1...thetimes.comIs John Healey ready to run with lower fiscal headroom?The chancellor has many factors to take into account as he prepares his budget, though he will not want to frighten the horses 152
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 06/10/2026My Times piece: UK gilt yields have risen, squeezing the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre. But they have risen by less over the past 12 months than other G7 economies, suggesting the “moron premium” is easing: Is John Healey ready to run with lower fiscal headroom? www.thetimes.com/article/81f1...thetimes.comIs John Healey ready to run with lower fiscal headroom?The chancellor has many factors to take into account as he prepares his budget, though he will not want to frighten the horses 152
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 03/10/2026My Sunday Times column, in which I highlight a new initiative by Sir John Kingman and Shriti Vadera, former Treasury leading lights now senior business figures, to put stronger growth at the top of the agenda: A stunning statistic shows how far UK growth has fallen www.thetimes.com/article/fc3a...thetimes.comA stunning statistic shows how far UK growth has fallenTwo people involved in steering Britain through the financial crisis say the economic stagnation ever since can be overcome with a ‘relentless’ growth mission 196
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 03/10/2026My Sunday Times column, in which I highlight a new initiative by Sir John Kingman and Shriti Vadera, former Treasury leading lights now senior business figures, to put stronger growth at the top of the agenda: A stunning statistic shows how far UK growth has fallen www.thetimes.com/article/fc3a...thetimes.comA stunning statistic shows how far UK growth has fallenTwo people involved in steering Britain through the financial crisis say the economic stagnation ever since can be overcome with a ‘relentless’ growth mission 196
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026My Sunday Times column: The chancellor wants to emphasise that the UK is the only major economy planning to cut its budget deficit. But he has to persuade the markets that he will actually do so: Can John Healey convince markets he will cut the budget deficit? www.thetimes.com/article/66d8...thetimes.comCan John Healey convince markets he will cut the budget deficit?The UK economy has been resilient and there is a plan to reduce the deficit. But borrowing costs are high and tough action by the chancellor is needed 424
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026My Sunday Times column: The chancellor wants to emphasise that the UK is the only major economy planning to cut its budget deficit. But he has to persuade the markets that he will actually do so: Can John Healey convince markets he will cut the budget deficit? www.thetimes.com/article/66d8...thetimes.comCan John Healey convince markets he will cut the budget deficit?The UK economy has been resilient and there is a plan to reduce the deficit. But borrowing costs are high and tough action by the chancellor is needed 424
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Before coming on to this Sunday’s column, perhaps a reminder of my recommendation for a new Help to Buy scheme last weekend: 021
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 22/09/2026My Times piece: The latest official figures show that we were working fewer hours to produce a given amount of GDP, but we are still waiting for the genuine productivity breakthrough the economy needs: Never mind the new stats, productivity still isn’t working www.thetimes.com/article/2af3...thetimes.comNever mind the new stats, productivity still isn’t workingRevised estimates appear to show output is not as weak as previously thought but we haven’t suddenly become richer and John Healey’s job isn’t any easier 4143
Reposted by David SmithJonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 22/09/2026very similar interpretation from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social here bsky.app/profile/dsmi... 0102
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 22/09/2026My Times piece: The latest official figures show that we were working fewer hours to produce a given amount of GDP, but we are still waiting for the genuine productivity breakthrough the economy needs: Never mind the new stats, productivity still isn’t working www.thetimes.com/article/2af3...thetimes.comNever mind the new stats, productivity still isn’t workingRevised estimates appear to show output is not as weak as previously thought but we haven’t suddenly become richer and John Healey’s job isn’t any easier 4143
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 19/09/2026In my Sunday Times column I look at the underperformance of consumer spending, now facing a renewed squeeze. And why John Healey should announce a new Help to Buy scheme, after a glowing review of the last one: Why debt-averse consumers are holding back the economy www.thetimes.com/article/8658...thetimes.comWhy debt-averse consumers are holding back the economyThe financial crisis scared people into borrowing and spending less, and growth suffered. Now, inflation and interest rates look set to squeeze us again 032
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 19/09/2026In my Sunday Times column I look at the underperformance of consumer spending, now facing a renewed squeeze. And why John Healey should announce a new Help to Buy scheme, after a glowing review of the last one: Why debt-averse consumers are holding back the economy www.thetimes.com/article/8658...thetimes.comWhy debt-averse consumers are holding back the economyThe financial crisis scared people into borrowing and spending less, and growth suffered. Now, inflation and interest rates look set to squeeze us again 032
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 12/09/2026My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England will announce its plans for quantitative tightening (QT) for the next 12 months on Thursday. But should it be doing any when gilt yields are so high? Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high? www.thetimes.com/article/49c8...thetimes.comShould the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high?Unconventional monetary policy has created unconventional dilemmas. Plus: the ONS takes a maple leaf out of the Bank’s book 265
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 12/09/2026My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England will announce its plans for quantitative tightening (QT) for the next 12 months on Thursday. But should it be doing any when gilt yields are so high? Should the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high? www.thetimes.com/article/49c8...thetimes.comShould the Bank of England sell gilts when yields are so high?Unconventional monetary policy has created unconventional dilemmas. Plus: the ONS takes a maple leaf out of the Bank’s book 265
Reposted by David SmithAndrew Carter @andrewcities.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Good piece from David. @centreforcities.bsky.social looked at the AMRC in some detail a few years ago - www.centreforcities.org/publication/....centreforcities.orgParks and innovation - Centre for CitiesHow can policymakers foster business innovation within local and national industrial strategy? This report sets out lessons from Sheffield's Advanced Manufacturing Park, which is helping to transform ... 131
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026My Times piece: Let a thousand Rotherhams bloom. Rotherham has the fastest productivity growth in the North, twice the UK average, thanks to advanced manufacturing. Can others emulate it? Rotherham is a striking lesson in growth for the rest of Britain www.thetimes.com/article/c41f...thetimes.comRotherham is a striking lesson in growth for the rest of BritainThe town’s Advanced Manufacturing Park shows how scaling up and spreading economic development much more widely is what Britain needs 4167
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 08/09/2026My Times piece: Let a thousand Rotherhams bloom. Rotherham has the fastest productivity growth in the North, twice the UK average, thanks to advanced manufacturing. Can others emulate it? Rotherham is a striking lesson in growth for the rest of Britain www.thetimes.com/article/c41f...thetimes.comRotherham is a striking lesson in growth for the rest of BritainThe town’s Advanced Manufacturing Park shows how scaling up and spreading economic development much more widely is what Britain needs 4167
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2026My Sunday Times piece: Slow growth, high and rising government debt (and debt interest rates) and unaffordable pensions mean that if nothing changes young people face a gloomy future: Why today’s young people will be poorer than their parents www.thetimes.com/article/af08...thetimes.comWhy today’s young people will be poorer than their parentsThe growth light has gone out and future generations face paying the price for the pandemic and the state pension triple lock 082
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2026My Sunday Times piece: Slow growth, high and rising government debt (and debt interest rates) and unaffordable pensions mean that if nothing changes young people face a gloomy future: Why today’s young people will be poorer than their parents www.thetimes.com/article/af08...thetimes.comWhy today’s young people will be poorer than their parentsThe growth light has gone out and future generations face paying the price for the pandemic and the state pension triple lock 082
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 29/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: If Chancellor John Healey wants to stimulate the economy and support growth in his October budget he should be reforming taxes, not putting them up: Money’s tight, so John Healey should reform taxes, not raise them www.thetimes.com/article/442b...thetimes.comMoney’s tight, so John Healey should reform taxes, not raise themLabour faces fiscal constraints, so could reforming taxes boost the economy? 273
Reposted by David SmithJonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Agree entirely with @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social here - growth-enhancing tax reform should be priority. Would add though that I would start by reforming the current absurd mess around marginal income tax rates. www.thetimes.com/article/442b...thetimes.comMoney’s tight, so John Healey should reform taxes, not raise themLabour faces fiscal constraints, so could reforming taxes boost the economy? 911227
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 29/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: If Chancellor John Healey wants to stimulate the economy and support growth in his October budget he should be reforming taxes, not putting them up: Money’s tight, so John Healey should reform taxes, not raise them www.thetimes.com/article/442b...thetimes.comMoney’s tight, so John Healey should reform taxes, not raise themLabour faces fiscal constraints, so could reforming taxes boost the economy? 273
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 25/08/2026My Times piece: There was nothing in the latest figures for the public finances to suggest the UK is heading for a fiscal crisis, which some people seem to be desperate for: Panic over borrowing shows the silly season is alive and well www.thetimes.com/article/f114...thetimes.comPanic over borrowing shows the silly season is alive and wellThe July figures published last week were unremarkable and if taxes go up, it will not be because of that 0102
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 25/08/2026My Times piece: There was nothing in the latest figures for the public finances to suggest the UK is heading for a fiscal crisis, which some people seem to be desperate for: Panic over borrowing shows the silly season is alive and well www.thetimes.com/article/f114...thetimes.comPanic over borrowing shows the silly season is alive and wellThe July figures published last week were unremarkable and if taxes go up, it will not be because of that 0102
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 22/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: Andy Burnham says No.10 North and not the Treasury will be responsible for his growth mission. Will it work? Previous attempts to take economic policy away from the Treasury haven’t: Must Andy Burnham go north to drive UK economic growth? www.thetimes.com/article/08fb...thetimes.comMust Andy Burnham go north to drive UK economic growth?The PM wants the Treasury to control the public finances while his new Manchester power base pursues prosperity. But growth and sound money go together 122
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 22/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: Andy Burnham says No.10 North and not the Treasury will be responsible for his growth mission. Will it work? Previous attempts to take economic policy away from the Treasury haven’t: Must Andy Burnham go north to drive UK economic growth? www.thetimes.com/article/08fb...thetimes.comMust Andy Burnham go north to drive UK economic growth?The PM wants the Treasury to control the public finances while his new Manchester power base pursues prosperity. But growth and sound money go together 122
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 15/08/2026My Sunday Times piece, with controversial new byline photo: America and Japan are intervening to support the yen but until fundamentals change it is unlikely to work. Meanwhile, the pound’s very stable: Japanese yen is on the rack, but sterling sails on serenely www.thetimes.com/article/7de2...thetimes.comThe Japanese yen is on the rack, but sterling sails on serenelyAs the US intervenes to prop up a currency beset by low interest rates and low growth, the pound benefits from stability. We would devalue it at our peril 082
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 15/08/2026My Sunday Times piece, with controversial new byline photo: America and Japan are intervening to support the yen but until fundamentals change it is unlikely to work. Meanwhile, the pound’s very stable: Japanese yen is on the rack, but sterling sails on serenely www.thetimes.com/article/7de2...thetimes.comThe Japanese yen is on the rack, but sterling sails on serenelyAs the US intervenes to prop up a currency beset by low interest rates and low growth, the pound benefits from stability. We would devalue it at our peril 082
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 11/08/2026My Times piece: The economy has held up well so far in the face of the Iran war energy shock, but it has not lost the capacity to damage, and the run-up to the budget could hit growth once again: UK economy is resilient but Healey’s Treasury is unknown quantity www.thetimes.com/article/dfe6...thetimes.comUK economy is resilient but Healey’s Treasury is unknown quantityThe good news is we have so far avoided the frenzied and damaging budget speculation of a year ago, but it is bound to intensify before October 002
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 11/08/2026My Times piece: The economy has held up well so far in the face of the Iran war energy shock, but it has not lost the capacity to damage, and the run-up to the budget could hit growth once again: UK economy is resilient but Healey’s Treasury is unknown quantity www.thetimes.com/article/dfe6...thetimes.comUK economy is resilient but Healey’s Treasury is unknown quantityThe good news is we have so far avoided the frenzied and damaging budget speculation of a year ago, but it is bound to intensify before October 002
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 08/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: A return visit to the West Midlands has me asking the question of whether the prime minister’s reindustrialisation pledge can be delivered or is just a political slogan: Can Andy Burnham manufacture a sustained industrial revival? www.thetimes.com/article/e5e3...thetimes.comCan Andy Burnham manufacture a sustained industrial revival?The old production heartlands of the West Midlands are still beating, but the PM’s plan to reindustrialise the economy means reversing decades of decline 2114
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 08/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: A return visit to the West Midlands has me asking the question of whether the prime minister’s reindustrialisation pledge can be delivered or is just a political slogan: Can Andy Burnham manufacture a sustained industrial revival? www.thetimes.com/article/e5e3...thetimes.comCan Andy Burnham manufacture a sustained industrial revival?The old production heartlands of the West Midlands are still beating, but the PM’s plan to reindustrialise the economy means reversing decades of decline 2114
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 01/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: 10-year plans are fine, but prime ministers don’t last that long these days. Where we do need a plan is for not continuing to kick the can down the road on debt: Andy Burnham’s ten-year plan won’t save UK from a debt trap www.thetimes.com/article/2efe...thetimes.comAndy Burnham’s ten-year plan won’t save UK from a debt trapThe new PM wants lasting change in social care, defence and jobs, but however long he is in office he can’t lose sight of the debt trap in the distance 045
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 01/08/2026My Sunday Times piece: 10-year plans are fine, but prime ministers don’t last that long these days. Where we do need a plan is for not continuing to kick the can down the road on debt: Andy Burnham’s ten-year plan won’t save UK from a debt trap www.thetimes.com/article/2efe...thetimes.comAndy Burnham’s ten-year plan won’t save UK from a debt trapThe new PM wants lasting change in social care, defence and jobs, but however long he is in office he can’t lose sight of the debt trap in the distance 045
Reposted by David SmithDavid Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 28/07/2026My Times piece: Shoppers have been splashing the cash during the heatwave, but can the consumer upturn survive higher inflation and months of tax speculation leading up to the autumn budget? Retail rise is cause for optimism but confidence is fragile www.thetimes.com/article/fe15...thetimes.comRetail rise is cause for optimism but confidence is fragileConsumer sentiment has been negative for more than a decade, suggesting increased spending should be enjoyed while it lasts 011
David Smith @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social · 28/07/2026My Times piece: Shoppers have been splashing the cash during the heatwave, but can the consumer upturn survive higher inflation and months of tax speculation leading up to the autumn budget? Retail rise is cause for optimism but confidence is fragile www.thetimes.com/article/fe15...thetimes.comRetail rise is cause for optimism but confidence is fragileConsumer sentiment has been negative for more than a decade, suggesting increased spending should be enjoyed while it lasts 011
Reposted by David SmithProf David Bailey @dgbailey.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Crisis, what crisis? It was the hot summer of ‘76, Jaws was in the cinema & Chancellor Healey was feeling the heat. Superb @cssjournal.bsky.social piece by the fab Sunday Times econ editor @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on the IMF crisis revisited. Free-to-view! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 174
