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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

thanks for context, I didn’t mean to be alarmist. just showing and commenting on the dynamics of such events 👍

Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Some serious warm air being pushed onto Antarctica at the moment. viz from martinjucker.com, data from GFS. #weather #antarctica #sciviz

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

In a new paper lead by Valentina Ortiz Guzmán we focus on impactful extreme weather. We define stalling cyclones as slow-moving rain-bearing midlatitude weather systems and find they occur most frequently close to the east coast of all continents. link.growkudos.com/1f94myyu58g 🧪

link.growkudos.com

Global Hotspots of Stalling Extratropical Cyclones

This paper defines a "stalling" type of weather system. It is defined as extratropical cyclone which remains near-stationary and produces extreme rainfall. This definition selects weather systems whic...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

In a new paper, I look at how temperature and precipitation from weather systems relate. Clausius Clapeyron (~7%/degree warming) seems often appropriate, but some places show twice as much precip increase with temperture. Snow and multi-day rainfall are different. 🧪 link.growkudos.com/1ecukqq5yio

link.growkudos.com

Temperature scaling of rainfall from weather systems

Temperature regulates the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Clouds produce rainfall by converting water vapour into liquid rain drops, thus linking surface temperatures to rainfall amounts. Te...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

An interesting start to April in the tropical western Pacific. 3 cyclones spinning off very close to each other, but in both hemispheres. Beautiful dynamics, powerful weather. Maila,Vaianu and Sinlaku. viz by myself, data from GFS.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

New paper by our student Chang Xu on how to detect convectively coupled atmospheric #waves in short duration datasets, where traditional methods fail due to insufficient data. Open access in Springer Nature Climate Dynamics. 🧪 doi.org/10.1007/s003...

doi.org

The evaluation of convectively coupled waves in limited-length datasets - Climate Dynamics

Climate Dynamics - Organised tropical convection is strongly influenced by intraseasonal convectively coupled waves (CCWs), particularly Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)....

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Today we've released our first album with original music. Five songs on belonging and building a space of your own, packaged in a soul-funky envelope. Spotify: open.spotify.com/album/3ryXHI... Apple Music: music.apple.com/au/album/van... Or search "Vanda Blue" on your preferred streaming platform.

open.spotify.com

Vanda Blue

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Reposted by Martin Jucker

UNSW Climate Change Research Centre @ccrc.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

CCRC’s Senior Research Fellow @drjucker.bsky.social and Prof. Julie Arblaster from Monash Uni. talk about all things stratosphere in the newest episode of the @21st century weather Totally Cooked podcast. There are rockets,volcanoes, and penguins! Hear now at 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...

21centuryweather.org.au

Live stratosphere special: Totally Cooked podcast

Join the Totally Cooked team and guest experts to explore the stratosphere, ozone, and jet stream—and how they shape our weather and climate.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

got to bring out my competitive side, running for my local surf live saving club at the New South Wales State Championships. This after repeated injuries, so doubly stoked to bring home two medals. go Coogee!

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

another flooding. this time N American West Coast.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

In the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, I am taking another look at this year's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I think it had more of an impact than I thought it would back in September. viewer.joomag.com/bamos-vol-38...

viewer.joomag.com

BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 | Page 6

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 Highlights include: - Another Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2025; - 2025 ACCESS Community Workshop:...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Tropical Cyclone #Fina as seen by GFS forecasts. #sciviz

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

Look at that cloud band connecting Vietnam with Alaska and a tropical storm (#fengshen) with a high-latitude storm. #weather #sciviz from martinjucker.com/viz

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Online: - The Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/... - Sydney Morning Herald: www.smh.com.au/environment/... - NewScientist: www.newscientist.com/article/2497... - Yahoo News: au.news.yahoo.com/the-rare-wea...) - SBS News: www.sbs.com.au/news/article...)

theguardian.com

Abnormally hot days may hit Australia’s south-east after rare sudden warming over Antarctica

Phenomenon extremely unusual in southern hemisphere and last occurred in 2019 when it contributed to worsening of black summer bushfires

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

and here some more online SSW stories: On TV: - ABC News: youtu.be/iYWjZEn1_w8?... - Channel 10 News+: youtu.be/f8YyLXAPxTo?...

youtu.be

Weather event above Antarctica sees 30-degree rise in air temperature | ABC NEWS

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia)

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Busy days around what might become to be known as the 2025 Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Loads of media interest, and thanks to the journalists who take their time to talk to me before writing their story. Happy to take some of mine in turn. theconversation.com/air-temperat...

Visualisation of the southern hemisphere with the south pole on top, and above the pole the cold polar vortex being pushed to the side by a patch of warming over the southern ocean.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Thanks to ABC TV News Channel for the chat about the stratosphere, sudden warmings, and the weather to come!

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

wait, is there another typhoon following #Ragasa (1) and #Neoguri (2)?

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

Super Typhoon #Ragasa definitely has an eye. Here seen from relatively low-resolution GFS data. But there’s also some wild dynamics happening all over the Pacific. #weather #sciviz

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Busy Western Pacific right now. Cat 5 (Ragasa) and 4 (Neoguri) not far from each other. I wonder whether the strong tropical Pacific activity could be linked to the unusually weak Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at the same time? 🤔 #sciviz #Ragasa #Neoguri

A computer image of Super Typhoon Ragasa and Typhoon Neoguri.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

finally we’ve done it. grand final winners 2025 ⚽️🏆now I’m ready for summer sports.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

anyone in need of a reminder how stupid AI is?

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

yes. it’s loving us very much!

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

I propose calling the current low pressure system the Heart Low. This is what the forecast looks like for later today. 🤍 #sciart #weather

rendering of clouds and winds in the Tasman Sea.

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Reposted by Martin Jucker

Andy Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ revkin.substack.com @revkin.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Clearer skies a prime driver of heating aapnews.aap.com.au/news/clue-to...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 22/06/2025

I’ve had some time in the plane to finish my next Garage Horns video. Sweet and short, and five times me! 😎🎷 youtu.be/5RAJNDsZKXU?...

youtu.be

New Intro (Garage Band version)

YouTube video by Martin Jucker

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

This was an interesting piece of work with George Driver from the AAP: debunking stuff which sounds very sophisticated, gets many things right, and is still completely wrong. Hopefully an insightful read 🧪 aapnews.aap.com.au/news/former-...

aapnews.aap.com.au

Former senator's global warming claims misrepresent physics: experts

Outgoing Queensland senator Gerard Rennick claims global warming could not occur because it goes against the laws of physics, but experts say his claims misunderstand how CO2 warms the earth.

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

So proud of my (now former) student Valentina Ortiz Guzman who just submitted her thesis 🥳🎉 This is not just her first PhD submission, but also my first submission as primary supervisor. So loads of firsts for everyone!

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Reposted by Martin Jucker

UNSW Climate Change Research Centre @ccrc.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

A new study by @drjucker.bsky.social and colleagues reveals climate models show strong dry biases on eastern continental coasts due to convective representation and dynamics. Caution is advised when using climate models to assess rainfall trends in these regions. Read more: doi.org/10.1002/qj.5...

doi.org

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models

We use a cyclone-tracking algorithm to study precipitation produced by extratropical cyclones and identify five global hotspots of extreme precipitation: the well-known Pacific and Atlantic storm tra...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

5. We suggested there might be a relation between the volcano and the evolution of ENSO. I think this one is still out there and I'm excited to see new, more comprehensive model simulations slowly coming out and pointing to similar ideas. 5/5

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

4. On the other hand, the larger ozone hole observed in spring 2023 did evolve as predicted, and the resulting positive Southern Annular Mode might well have been the reason the 2023-24 southern hemisphere summer was not as expected from the co-occurring El Nino. One prediction come true? 4/5

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

3. We might never know the actual, isolated climate impact because it gets drowned in all these other effects. Maybe this means it had no effect, but that would be wrong in the sense that a similar eruption in a more stable period (past or future) might still have measurable impact. 3/5

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

2. I would expect current sea surface temperature anomalies to dominate over any regional influence the volcano might have had. So I don't think the "weird" weather we are seeing in many places around the globe should be attributed to Hunga Tonga. 2/5

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

1. most important of all, and in accordance with all other research related to Hunga, we do not expect any measurable effect on global mean surface temperatures. Thus, none of what is and has been happening in terms of global mean temps in the recent past can be attributed to Hunga Tonga. 1/5

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

thanks @acaciapepler.bsky.social, Greta Paget, Caleb Burke, @ccrc.bsky.social. So exciting to get into the dynamics of weather systems. more to come!

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

New research on extratropical cyclones: zonal asymmetries in ETC precipitation, with peaks off eastern coasts. Climate models show biases in extreme ETC precipitation, linked to convective processes. Trends indicate more extreme precipitation in future scenarios. doi.org/10.1002/qj.5... 🧪 #climate

doi.org

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

full concentration on the job! so cool to spend the weekend in the studio with our original music 🎷 🎶 🎸 🎤

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

gig alarm 🚨 Upside Under is returning to Gasoline Pony on 22 February. It’s a small but awesome venue and we’ve sold out last time so get in and reserve your tickets at www.trybooking.com/CYKMO 🎷 🎶 🕺🪩

trybooking.com

The Millimeters Upside Under - Sat 22nd Feb frm 7pm

Join us as for a great night of music and dancing as we bring the funk to Gasoline Pony. Starting off the night are The Millimeters, featuring...

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

thanks @gewex.bsky.social for the chance to represent APARC and the very interesting program, discussions, and smooth organisation of the meeting 🙏

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Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

we’re looking for master’s students to work with is at UNSW 👇 if you’re interested, be quick!

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