David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 07/10/20268th International Faustmann Symposium. Day 2 presentations. 130
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 07/10/20268th International Faustmann Symposium. Day 1 presentations. 130
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Softwood lumber prices were nearly 12% higher in August than they were a year earlier, reflecting the effects of supply-side constraints (tariffs, mill closures, and wildfires affecting log availability in the west). Producer prices for plywood are up 11% Y/Y and newsprint prices up 18% Y/Y. 110
Reposted by David RossiScott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 06/08/2026"Steep duties on Canadian lumber, wildfires and sawmill closures have cut supply and pushed up prices" share.google/COnpKJtSqQd9... Kicker: the tariffs helped caused the US SAWMILLS to close, too: 02311
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 20/07/2026Op-ed in The Oregonian: "When sawmills close, wildfire risk grows." www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2026...oregonlive.comOpinion: When sawmills close, wildfire risk growsThe loss of sawmills around Oregon means that efforts to conduct wildfire prevention, such as thinning, are hitting a brick wall with no one able to process the small-diameter logs, writes Naresh Khan... 131
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 16/07/2026From CNBC: "Mortgage rates rise to highest level in nearly a year, causing homebuyers to pause." www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/m...cnbc.comMortgage rates rise to highest level in nearly a year, causing homebuyers to pauseMortgage rates moved higher last week, causing buyers to pull back, but refinancing did see small gains. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 16/07/2026While the headline PPI declined in June (lower than markets expected), producer prices for most wood and pulp/paper products increased. Most wood and pulp/paper product prices are also higher than last year, with the largest % increases in printing/writing papers, newsprint, plywood, & SW lumber. 010
Reposted by David RossiThe Colorado Sun ☀️ @coloradosun.com · 01/07/2026Trump administration seeks to stomp out all fires quickly, reviving policy that has been discreditedcoloradosun.comTrump administration seeks to stomp out all fires quickly, reviving policy that has been discreditedThe deaths of three federal firefighters in a Colorado wildfire are highlighting the revival of a previously discredited policy to stomp out all wildfires quickly. 63613
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 21/05/2026From the Forest Data Network: "EU Revises Deforestation Regulation Again Before Launch." The revisions "are expected to reduce annual compliance costs for companies subject to EUDR obligations by about 75%, compared to the original EUDR (regulations)."forestdatanetwork.comEuropean Union Revises Deforestation Regulation Again…The regulations have been modified twice since their introduction in 2023 due to adverse reactions and confusion regarding the regulations on the part of forest products companies. They apply to Europ... 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 17/05/2026In the NY Times this week: "Wildfires strike Florida, Georgia, and America's wood basket...large fires fueled by record breaking drought, have been destroying homes and timber plantations in the Southeastern U.S." www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/c...nytimes.comWildfires Strike Florida, Georgia and America’s ‘Wood Basket’ 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026The new Fed chair has been pushing for lower rates but a smaller balance sheet at the central bank. If this is combined with continued fiscal expansion, lumber production may suffer. The net effects are potentially inflationary, placing upward pressure on longterm interest rates and slowing demand. 420
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 13/05/2026The April PPI report shows the largest M/M increase in softwood lumber prices since March of 2022. Wood pallet/box prices also saw a large M/M increase in April, its largest since April of 2022. 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 06/05/2026From Forest Economic Advisors & NAHB: "US Housing Share of GDP Falls Below 16% in Q1." For the first time since 2019, housing's share of GDP dipped below 16%. Residential fixed investment (excluding services) fell to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in Q4 of 2025. getfea.com/end-use/us-h...getfea.comUS Housing Share of GDP Falls Below 16% in Q1 - Forest Economic Advisors, LLCUS housing’s share of GDP fell to 15.9% in Q1, dropping below 16% for the first time since 2019, the BEA and NAHB reported. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 05/05/2026New article by Dr. Bruno Kanieski Da Silva (et al.): "Evaluating carbon additionality under short-term harvest deferrals in U.S. southern plantation forests." www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comEvaluating carbon additionality under short-term harvest deferrals in U.S. southern plantation forestsThe growing demand for nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change has heightened interest in forest carbon programs, particularly in the southe… 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Strong March housing starts data, reaching 1,502 thous. (SAAR). 11% higher than its monthly average over the prior 12 months. This pace is about 13% higher than the median estimate for 2026 housing starts in my sample of forecasts. 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 22/04/2026From the AP: Wildfires across GA & FL have destroyed nearly 50 homes and are forcing evacuations. "...the bottom half of Georgia is perilously dry and the conditions prompted the state's forestry commission to issue a burn ban for the first time in its history." apnews.com/article/wild...apnews.comWildfires across Georgia and Florida have destroyed nearly 50 homes and are forcing evacuationsWildfires are intensifying across the southeastern U.S. They've destroyed about 50 homes in Georgia. The fires also have forced evacuations. 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 14/04/2026Latest BLS PPI report shows prices increased in March for HW lumber, millwork, plywood, wood pallets/boxes, and timber+chip products. In this product group, only SW lumber prices declined in March. The -7% Y/Y change in SW lumber prices is modest compared to the volatile period from 2020-2023. 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Recently published by Manner et al. in Forest Policy and Economics: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern U.S. forest sector. Softwood pulpwood prices are projected to decline under low annual demand and high rates of inventory growth. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comGlobally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sectorThis study integrates recently updated National-Scale Volume Biomass (NSVB) estimates with a spatially-aware carbon accounting methodology in the SubR… 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 18/03/2026Producer prices for softwood lumber up 4% in February ahead of the spring building season. Other notable monthly increases in the PPI reports for writing/printing paper & hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard. 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 17/03/2026From Crawley, Daigneault, & Gendron (in Forest Policy & Economics): "Where the trees fall: Macroeconomic forecasts for forest-reliant states" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.comWhere the trees fall: Macroeconomic forecasts for forest-reliant statesSeveral key states in various regions of the U.S. have experienced recent sawtimber as well as pulp and paper mill closures, which raises an important… 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 15/03/2026From NC Newsline: "NC forestry officials worry about growing fire dangers, fewer workers" ncnewsline.com/2026/03/12/f... 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between global oil price growth and U.S. diesel price growth. If oil prices remain elevated from sustained global conflict this year, we may also see higher US diesel prices and higher costs for timber harvesting + wood trucking/transportation. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 12/03/2026From Zachary Lowry at The Timberland Investor: "The forest industry's exposure to this conflict runs almost entirely through one product: diesel fuel. ... When diesel prices move, harvesting costs move with them..." thetimberlandinvestor.com/how-the-iran...thetimberlandinvestor.comHow the Iran War Could Break the Forest Industry (and Much More) - The Timberland InvestorThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz could create a COVID-level economic disruption for an already-beleaguered industry. 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 27/02/2026Headline PPI up 2.9% Y/Y. Largest wood product price increase since last year was for hardwood lumber (+5.2% Y/Y). Largest pulp product price increases were for converted/sanitary papers (+3.1%) and paperboard (+3.0%). Notable declines continued for wood pulp and hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard. 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 26/02/2026Biomass magazine reports on data from the USDA FAS: US wood pellet exports totaled 10.09 million metric tons in 2025, up 1% from 2024. biomassmagazine.com/articles/usd...biomassmagazine.comUSDA: US wood pellet exports top 10.09 million metric tons in 2025 | Biomass MagazineThe U.S. exported more than 10.09 million metric tons of wood pellets in 2025, up more than 1% when compared to 2024, according to data released by the USD 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 24/02/2026From Paul Jannke (FEA): imported lumber & plywood are already subject to Sec. 232 measures, so the new tariffs applied under Sec. 122 do not apply. However, other wood products (OSB, eng. lumber, mass timber) are NOT subject to Section 232 measures, so are exposed to the new Sec. 122 duties. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Over 300,000 acres burning in Oklahoma this week, mostly in the western panhandle region. Red flag warnings issued across the state. Some smaller fires are currently burning in the more heavily forested eastern region of the state as well. www.oklahoman.com/story/weathe... 020
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026Latest New Residential Construction report: total housing starts in 2025 were estimated to be 1.359 mil. units, down just 0.6% from 2024. In 2025, 69% of these starts were single-family units, which is down from 74% in 2024. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 16/02/2026The $WOOD ETF is up 14.3% YTD. Likely factors contributing to a higher valuation are the completion of the RYN/PCH merger, a Stora Enso spinoff of its Swedish forest assets, and earnings beats by WFG & UPM-Kymmene. SPF spot prices (+9%) and futures prices have also recovered over the last 2 months. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 16/02/2026From the NAHB: "84% of home builders said that elevated mortgage rates was the most significant challenge builders faced in 2025, and 65% anticipate interest rates will remain a problem in 2026." www.nahb.org/blog/2026/02...nahb.orgThe Biggest Challenges Expected by Home Builders in 2026According to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, 84% of home builders felt the most significant challenge builders faced in 2025 was high interest rates and 65% anticipate interest rates... 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 12/02/2026January 2026 employment in the Mining/Logging sector was estimated to be 603 thous. workers, down 3.1% from a year ago. Avg. monthly employment in these sectors during 2025 was down 2.7% from 2024 and down 7.7% from its average over the prior 10 years (2015-2024). 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 06/02/2026From economist Devon Dartnell-current challenges depressing US timber markets: weak lumber prices + sluggish housing sector + high interest rates, declining domestic pulp demand & increased foreign production capacity, weak demand for residual chips from pulp manufacturers, higher forest mgmt costs. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 05/02/2026From the NAHB: "the 10yr Treasury rate at the beginning of 2026 was at 4.1%. The rate has now increased to 4.3%. This unfortunately means the beneficial impact of the $200 bil. of additional acquisition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS...has been partially offset by international concerns." 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 03/02/2026Retail sales of building materials and garden equipment expanded rapidly during the pandemic by 13.1% in 2020 and 14.3% in 2021 (reaching a peak of $508.4 bil. in 2022). Annual sales have remained elevated totaling $488.5 bil. in 2024. Thru Nov. it was on pace to decline 0.9% in 2025 to $484.0 bil. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 30/01/2026Preliminary data from the December PPI report shows that softwood lumber prices were down 8.2% Y/Y while hardwood lumber prices were up 6.1%. Large Y/Y declines were observed for some paper/board products, including wood pulp and hardboard/particleboard/fiberboard. Timber/chip prices were flat Y/Y. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 29/01/2026From Dr. Brent Sohngen: "Active Forests." A recent publication reports that "...since the turn of the century in the conterminous U.S., anthropogenic factors have contributed 55% of all carbon gain in forests while non-anthropogenic factors have provided the rest." u.osu.edu/forest/2026/...u.osu.eduActive Forests | Global Forests 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 29/01/2026Across the US Atlantic coast states, softwood timber utilization from 2020-2024 declined by 2.0%/yr. while hardwood timber utilization declined by 3.5%/yr. Much of the overall decline was driven by a 234 MMCF decrease in softwood pulpwood use. Softwood timber was ~84% of total utilization. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 28/01/2026Mortgage rates followed the decline in 10yr yields over the last year, falling from 7% in mid-Jan 2025 to 6.1% this year. Strong economic growth was likely driving this trend, pulling down the deficit as a % of GDP. Tariff revenues stabilized deficit expansion, even as federal outlays grew in 2025. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 22/01/2026The latest USFS data shows that annual softwood timber utilization by sawmills and veneer production facilities in NC declined 7% in 2024, while hardwood utilization by such mills expanded by 6%. Timber utilization by pulp, composite, and bioenergy facilities expanded by about 9% for all species. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 14/01/2026Latest PPI report showed a decline of nearly 7% in softwood lumber prices from Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025. This is consistent with the year's housing trends and weak demand. Hardwood lumber prices grew 6% in the opposite direction on tight inventories while plywood prices were flat Y/Y. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 30/12/2025Quarterly prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were growing at an annual average pace of of 4.0%/yr. from 2015-2020. Prices have since grown at a faster pace of 7.5% since 2021. This year, prices for sawmill & woodworking machinery were up 6.7% through September. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 24/12/2025The top 5 Christmas tree producing states in 2022 were: Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Washington, and Pennsylvania. These states accounted for 79% of Christmas tree production that year, and represent about 52% of the total U.S. acreage devoted to the production of Christmas tress. 100
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 16/12/2025The share of USFS fire management obligations devoted to suppression averaged 57% from 2016-2025. This percentage will be 100% in FY2026 under the current budget proposal, but accounting for reallocation of the Fuels budget to the new "Wildland Fire Service" in the DOI, the share is more like 93%. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 09/12/2025Wood chips can sometimes be a revenue stabilizer for sawmills when lumber prices decline. Y/Y inflation in sawmill wood chip prices averaged 2.8% from 2015-2024, while SW lumber price inflation averaged 5.1%. In 2025, chip prices grew 3.2% through September, but SW lumber prices fell 5.5%. 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 06/12/2025There is an intuitive inverse relationship between employment and capital intensity in U.S. sawmills, but the trend is stark. The most recent available BLS data on capital intensity show that it grew by 1.6% in 2022, coinciding with a -0.6% contraction in sawmill employment that year. 131
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 05/12/2025From 2022-2024, roundwood price inflation did not keep pace with the rising cost of logging equipment (tractors, dozers, log skidders, etc.). This trend has reversed in 2025. Year-over-year roundwood price inflation averaged 0.4% through September while logging equipment inflation averaged -3.9%. 010
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Tech-driven economic growth has not yet pushed new housing activity below 4% of GDP. Fixed residential investment as a share of GDP is currently 4%, but it has fallen from an average of 4.8% in 2021. It sits between its pre-housing crisis share of 6.6% (2005) and its post-crisis low of 2.4% (2011). 110
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 13/04/2025Dr. Jeff Reimer is quoted in this USA today article on the impacts of lumber tariffs under weak or slowing housing demand: "National forests face the hatchet as Trump administration boosts logging." www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...usatoday.comNational forests face the hatchet as Trump administration boosts loggingA new policy opens 58% of U.S. national forests to logging by rolling back environmental protections. 020
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 28/03/2025From John Casey in the Georgia Forestry Magazine. "Market Dynamics in 2025: Georgia's Forest Industry Grows Amid Structural and Environmental Challenges." digital-editions.todaymediacustom.com/georgia-fore...digital-editions.todaymediacustom.comGeorgia Forestry - Issue 4 - Winter 2025 000
David Rossi @drdjrossi.bsky.social · 15/03/2025From Dr. Andrew Muhammad on The Feed Science podcast: "Tariffs & U.S. Agriculture" www.wisenetix.com/blog/Tariffs...wisenetix.comDr. Andrew Muhammad: Tariffs & U.S. Agriculture | Ep. 89In this special National Ag Day episode of The Feed Science Podcast Show, Dr. Andrew Muhammad, an agricultural trade economist, breaks down the complexities of global trade policies and what they mean... 001
