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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

BiH is not a sideshow but an illustration of the challenges the EU faces. It’s hard to be confident in the EU – institutionally or at the member state level – summoning the will to confront the moment. But its window to do so may not be open much longer. 21/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

It's yet another reminder that the EU is long overdue to (re)assess its failed approach toward BiH (and the wider region) from first principles, based on the world the Union now faces, with the US & Russia actively seeking to undermine it – directly and through strategic candidate countries. 20/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Reinforcing deterrence with a strengthened EUFOR – and underscoring that it will remain in place – can go a long way toward finally creating guardrails around political leaders who currently feel no sense of limits, and wind at their back from east and west. This is a tool Europe alone controls. 19/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

That is a bygone era – largely because the EU presumed the “enlargement process” alone would be sufficient to finish the job. The unwillingness of the political leaders of BiH to agree to fulfil a handful of obligations have stalled the process for years. It will certainly not improve now. 18/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Let us not forget that the PIC articulated the “Bonn Powers” in December 1997, after 2 years of governance dysfunction. Over the following 8 years, war criminals were arrested, much was rebuilt, and tens of thousands were able to return home. This process generated optimism, progress and hope. 17/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

But the most important takeaway for those Peace Implementation Council members who remain vocally committed to democratic practice and rule of law is that yesterday’s elections, more than any other since 1996, reveal the “factory settings” of the Dayton order. 16/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This also highlights the urgent need to appoint a High Representative who is not under US control. The best chance to do so may have passed in June. The debate on who should succeed Christian Schmidt, forced out under US pressure, continues. OHR is vital for the Dayton constitutional order. 15/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Europe+ and the EU need to toughen up in their defense to avoid geopolitical alignment threats, and to signal that the country is a serious EU candidate. 14/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The threat to state institutions is stark: nationalists Dodik and Čović have a long wishlist of institutions they want to eliminate or neuter (Constitutional Court, Armed Forces, SIPA, Court of BiH, etc.). 13/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Now would be the time to reinforce the force on the ground, in advance of the vote and to send a message of resolve as government coalition talks are underway. 12/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

For now, the United States has overtaken Russia as the greatest and most dangerous disruptor in the Balkans. It does so from an advantageous position – wired into elite-focused systems, structures, and relationships – which bodes ill for BiH citizens. 10/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The results, should they hold once finalized, paint a dark picture for the coming government, which enters in a far more daunting geopolitical environment than prevailed in 2022. 9/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

His political wingman, HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović, thanked Bosniak voters (presumably for letting Filipović win), stating that now was the time to change the election law – even though the HDZ got its preferred outcome for that seat. 8/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

He added that with the victories of Cvijanović and Filipović it would now be 2 vs 1 in the BiH Presidency. 7/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Dodik thanked both Presidents Trump and Putin early in his speech, noting that “if it wasn’t for President Trump, we would have been politically dead today.” He also stated that there would now be a return to “original Dayton,” including the disbandment of the BiH Armed Forces and Border Police. 6/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This revealed itself in the triumphal speeches of nationalist leaders, beginning with Milorad Dodik, who was not a candidate for office (from which he is banned for another five years), but whose name was included on the ballot alongside the SNSD party label. 5/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In the state parliamentary assembly, the rank order of seats is SDA, SNSD, SDP, HDZ, PSS-PDP, SBiH, SDS, NiP, DF, HDZ 1990/Petorka - largely mirrored in the Federation and RS assemblies. All told, nationalists will be far stronger, relatively speaking, at both executive and legislative levels. 4/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In the state presidency, the results seem to point to SDP candidate Denis Bećirović winning the Bosniak seat and HDZ candidate Darijana Filipović winning the Croat seat (each elected by voters in the Federation). SNSD’s Željka Cvijanović appears to have won the Serb seat (elected by RS voters). 3/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Turnout dropped substantially, well below 50%, though it must be borne in mind that the divisor – a voter list base of 3.4 million – is likely to be well over a million higher than the current population – let alone number of voters, which explains the low turnout but not the drop since 2022. 2/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Preliminary results from yesterday’s general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina – the first with an electronic voting system intended to reduce fraud – indicate considerable strengthening of nationalist parties in legislatures in both entities, at the state and entity levels. 1/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Either way, the Europeans are left without control of the OHR's enforcement tools to preserve the Dayton peace accords. DPC is not convinced of the wisdom of this outcome. 14/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

...an unwillingness to confront the Trump administration even on an essentially European issue. While much about yesterday’s decision remains murky, it’s clear that it puts the OHR on a course of complete capture by the Trump administration and possibly its eventual closure. 13/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

In any case, the EU position had not been hashed out with member states, nor apparently did other PIC members…of the PIC object – the UK, Canada, Turkey, Japan. The old anti-OHR instincts may have kicked in here, as well as... 12/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Why would the EU agree to this, especially – apparently – against the will of its two key member state capitals, Berlin and Paris? One possible explanation is that Brussels, which has been trying to close down the OHR for two decades, sees an acting HR as a first step towards that goal. 11/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

We wrote on the issue in 2023 and our analysis stands. 10/

democratizationpolicy.org

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Foremost of these is likely to be state property. Diplomatic sources relate that the US is fine with a solution that former Republika Srpska entity President Dodik (and surely other BiH politicians) could live with – to the detriment of public patrimony, the environment, and public revenue. 9/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

The danger is that in the “extended interim,” the US will pursue its agenda from the commanding heights of OHR. The inability of the USG to do this on its radically shifted policy priorities is apparently what made Schmidt a target of Washington. 8/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Note that the US has not even paid its annual contribution into the OHR budget – 23% of the total. The US just assumed control of the OHR without any money down. And the EU – though not with the formal affirmative consent of member states – ceded this. Some “geopolitical Europe.” 7/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

While ostensibly Crishock’s appointment as acting HR could end with a decision on a HR successor by July 14, note the wording in the PIC SB statement: “the goal of completing the appointment.” Without such agreement, Crishock will remain placeholder executive – and he is a US official. 6/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Recall at the session at the beginning of June, Landi was put forward forcefully by a numerous delegation from Washington, along with French Presidential envoy René Troccaz as a nominee. No result was achieved then. 5/

theguardian.com

US and European diplomats continue standoff over top Bosnia and Herzegovina post

European powers resist Trump administration’s pick for high representative after incumbent pushed out

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

…handing the Americans the wheel of OHR directly, not even via the cutout of the US’s Italian nominee, Antonio Zanardi Landi. 4/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

It’s clear that the American bottom line was that they wanted Schmidt gone “by sundown,” as in Westerns. “Brussels” – it is unclear the principal involved – acquiesced to this, apparently unbeknownst to member states, …3/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

In practice though not formally, the EU institutions accepted an American acting High Rep, US diplomat and Principal Deputy High Representative (PDHR) Louis Crishock. This undercut all nominees, including Germany’s new proposal of former EU Delegation head Peter Sørensen. 2/

ohr.int

Statement of the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council – Office of the High Representative

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

At yesterday’s (June 30) meeting of the Peace Implementation Council Steering Boad Ambassadors (#PIC SBA), the successor to outgoing High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, was to be once again discussed and decided upon. 1/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Many questions about ongoing protests in Albania at today's midday briefing of the European Commission. Interesting to compare and contrast the Commission's clear and loud position regarding implications for Albania's EU path with its weak response to democratic backsliding in Serbia.

audiovisual.ec.europa.eu

Audiovisual Service

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"...clearly, 'Okay, you know, we were pursuing gas for too long, but… but our policy has changed, and, you know, you really need to avoid this new lock-in'"... 6/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"...we now see Western Balkan leaders, kind of, speaking about gas as a transition fuel, even some of them making really, really absurd statements about, you know, gas as the fuel of the future, even, which is really just wrong...it really is now the responsibility of the EU to say,..." 5/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"...(Because of diversification difficulties within the EU 27, they are) now a little bit reluctant to...really give clear directions to the countries, but still,... we think they need to be much more honest and upfront about this, and really say, Look, learn from our mistake..." 4/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"...all of the countries are part of the energy community treaty, which does entail at least implementing energy legislation from the EU. So, the EU does have these instruments... to make sure that the countries apply rules on state aid, on competition, on...renewables and so on..." 3/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"...Once it's in place, this is going to be there for 40, 50 years, so we were… we were…We've already been, for a few years, really worried about this"... 2/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

First of several noteworthy excerpts: "...in Bosnia, less than 3% of energy comes from gas, so… We saw a huge, a huge threat that these…new pieces of infrastructure that were, at that point being promoted by the EU would actually result in, in kind of a new gas lock-in (vs. transition fuel)... 1/

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

DPC's Valery Perry speaks with @pippagallop.bsky.social of @ceebankwatch.bsky.social in the latest DPC Voice, our new podcast, regarding the Southern Interconnection pipeline project, which has been aggressively pushed forward by the US. open.spotify.com/episode/6uug...

open.spotify.com

DPC talks with Bankwatch's Pippa Gallop - Zagreb

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

We've been led to think that in an election 50%+1 represents a majority of preferences. Are there better options? In the latest episode of #DPCVoice, Senior Associate Valery Perry spoke w/ Peter Emerson of the De Borda Institute to try to answer this question. open.spotify.com/episode/0WHG...

open.spotify.com

DPC talks with Peter Emerson - Belfast, Northern Ireland

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

DPC's latest, by @kurtbassuener.bsky.social, on how Europe+ ought to respond to the challenge of succeeding High Rep Christian Schmidt in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It cannot simply be a personnel decision - it constitutes a strategic choice in a region where the EU has great leverage.

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Democratization Policy Council @dpcglobal.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

26/ Ovaj trenutak zahtijeva brzu stratešku evoluciju za članice Europe+ u situaciji u kojoj su relativno moćnije nego drugdje. Moraju pokazati da mogu ispuniti očekivanja.

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