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Down on the Farm

@downonthefarm.bsky.social

2.7K followers 61 following 252 posts

Down on the Farm is a newsletter featuring analysis, news, notes and summaries of all things minor league baseball, prospects, and player development ⭕️ Substack: downonthefarm.substack.com Website with predictions: oysteranalytics.com

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Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 7h

Back when he was still a Marlin, Mesa was our Miami player to watch headed into 2026. We loved his combo of contact and power, even if it came with a ton of chase. One 2.6 WAR season and a clutch HR later, he's overachieved our hyper-bullish preseason projection!

Victor Mesa Jr., Miami Marlins prospect, is ranked No. 70 overall and No. 2 in the Marlins system. Career outcome probabilities are 85% Contributor, 37% Regular, and 15% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: 0.93 development speed, -0.62 discipline, 0.71 strikeout avoidance, 0.65 contact, 0.00 gap power, 0.30 home-run power, and -0.08 lift. The career outcome chart shows a strong concentration of projected WAR in the first two seasons, with the distribution tapering steadily afterward and a smaller portion reaching the 3+ WAR/season Star range. Comp: Alek Thomas, 2024.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Best of... 57? On this week's podcast, we talk about playoff data use, the randomness of the MLB playoff structure, the shortcomings of small ball, and more postseason ins and outs. Check it out:

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 10/7/26: Playoff Nihilism, Small Ball Illusion, Challenges and Steals

We break down data relevance in the playoffs, why small ball might not be as effective as some imply, and how the postseason changes challenge and steal calculus

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In part two of our playoff vs. regular-season series, we get into the heavy hitters (literally): Do HR matter more in the playoffs? Is small-ball the way to go? Which players benefit (and lose) the most from the postseason environment? Read below:

api.omarshehata.me

Runs Are Scored Differently in the Playoffs; Cui Bono?

We investigate how the run scoring environment is different in the playoffs and assess how the changes impact this season’s participants

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

With the playoffs in full swing, we dive into the similarities and differences between the regular season and playoff play. From pitcher usage, to velocity and stuff shifts, and experience vs. youth, we investigate playoff facts and fictions!

api.omarshehata.me

How Playoff Baseball is Different, Part 1

We investigate how October baseball is truly different from its regular season counterpart, and how it’s deceptively similar

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Owen: Will anyone care if I write this? Max: Well, Bluesky will care; they love the Boss. Owen: Bluesky loves the Boss? Max: Bluesky loves the Boss. Owen's Springsteen and baseball obsessions combine in this week's article, a fun take on playoff baseball.

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Which Springsteen Album Is Each MLB Playoff Team?

Some teams are born into a good life, some get it anyway, anyhow; with our trademark analytical rigor, we match every postseason participant with their “Boss comp”

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We've got a special podcast this week, as we interviewed former Angels P Ryan Smith! We talked about his late-blooming baseball journey, data use in the minors, and the tension between pitch development and maximizing current performance.

downonthefarm.substack.com

Down on the Farm Podcast 9/22/26: Former Angels P Ryan Smith Hops On the Pod

We get a pitcher’s perspective on data in the minor leagues, his late-blooming path to pro ball, and the tension between experimentation and performance

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Check out this month's hottest hitters! We've got smaller-statured players finding enough power to produce, old-for-the-level prospects stepping up and dominating, and well-rounded prospects who, despite lacking standout tools, got it all to click:

api.omarshehata.me

The September Hot Streaks That Matter, ft. Welbyn Francisca, Caden Bodine, and More

Oyster projections + streaks model + video analysis = an obsessively rigorous guide to September’s MiLB hot streaks

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

This week's content features our last full weekly pearls article of the year, as well as a podcast breaking down the successes and failures of our streaks model, our use of in-person scouting, and a dive into two MLB late-season heaters. Our weekly pearls:

downonthefarm.substack.com

Season Ending Studs: Model Darlings and In-Person Gems Get It Done

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

In yesterday's article, we took a look at FanGraphs' fielding grades, their accuracy, and how our findings shape how you should understand fielding projections. As we are looking to better integrate fielding into our modeling, we figured we'd start by looking at one of the best!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Fielding Grades: The Final Frontier

We look at an industry leader to assess the mysterious nature of baseball analytics’ final frontier: fielding assessment and projections

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

We've got another weekly pearls article and podcast for you all! The pearls are an interesting batch of power-happy players with either contact or discipline flaws (and a pair of Sebastians), while our Labor Day special podcast dives into the MLB CBA negotiations.

downonthefarm.substack.com

Pearls “Under the Sea”: A Pair of Sebastians Go Off, HR Hitters Shine

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling, and with a title that Max has assured Owen some people will understand

Reposted by Down on the Farm

Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Walcott is RED hot, and the biggest reason why is his elevated lift rates. He has always been a big EV guy, but until this season, he had GB% in the 40% range. Now, he's at 31.2% in AA, and he's smashing line drives. With skills like this, perhaps he hits #1 overall?

Sebastian Walcott, Texas shortstop, prospect graphic. Walcott is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 1 Texas prospect. He has a 99% probability of becoming a Contributor, 99% probability of becoming a Regular, and 97% probability of becoming a Star. His relative stats are 2.1 standard deviations above league average in development speed, 0.54 in discipline, 0.48 in avoiding strikeouts, 0.78 in contact, 0.82 in gap power, 0.61 in home-run power, and -0.39 in lift. The career outcome chart shows a very high probability of reaching the Contributor and Regular thresholds, with the distribution remaining above the Star threshold of roughly 3 WAR per season in 97% of outcomes. The probability declines steadily for outcomes above 3 WAR, with relatively few projections reaching 4 WAR or higher, indicating the model views star-level production as highly likely while elite 4-to-5 WAR seasons represent the upper end of the distribution. Player comp: Tim Beckham, 2011. Confidence meter is nearly full.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

There's nothing more exciting (to us at least) than a freshly called-up prospect who gets his squad to the promised land: the playoffs, or better, a World Series title. These eight prospects have a shot to do so... Who else do you think has the goods?

api.omarshehata.me

The Mid-Season Promotions Most Likely to Make a Difference Down the Stretch

We rank eight newly(ish) promoted rookie sluggers by how much of an impact they can make in playoff pushes and, hopefully, October

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Our weekly content is out! Check out last week's hottest prospects in our Weekly Pearls article and our coverage of Montes mania in our most recent podcast.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

We've all heard it before: You put your best athlete in center field, your best arm in right field, and the "other guy" in left field. But is there true merit in playing your bazooka-blessed outfielder in right field? We took a Savant-data-fueled dive into the common wisdom:

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Does Arm Strength Actually Matter More in Right Field?

From Little League on, otherwise mediocre fielders with absolute hoses get stuck in right field. Is there wisdom behind the convention?

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

On this week's DOTF Podcast, we talk the DSL’s best from this year of action, which prospects teams did/will regret parting with, and the complicated nature of prospect fielding grades. Catch it here:

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 8/25/26: DSL Standouts, Regretted Deals, What’s the Deal With Fielding Grades?

We talk the DSL’s best from this year of action, which prospects teams did/will regret parting with, and the complicated nature of prospect fielding grades

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Many of this week’s stars are knocking on the door of the big leagues. From a power-hitting first baseman to a pair of outfielders, several standouts close in on an MLB shot, while this week's top man may be the best prospect in all of baseball. Check out this week's pearls:

api.omarshehata.me

Are Walker Jenkins’ and Ralphy Velasquez’s MLB Debuts Imminent? This Week in MiLB

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Check out today's article on August's standout MiLB performances that we think have a shot at sticking! From Caleb Bonemer's contact upgrades to Mitch Voit's all-around run, our models are believers in these breakouts.

api.omarshehata.me

The August Hot Streaks That Matter, ft. Caleb Bonemer, Mitch Voit, and More

Oyster projections + streaks model + video analysis = an obsessively rigorous guide to August’s MiLB hot streaks

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

We're back with our regularly scheduled podcast programming! This week we discuss top catching prospects, end-of-season fantasy assets, and review and evaluate old scouting reports. Tune in:

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 8/18/26: Back to Normalcy, Top Catchers and Fantasy Assets, Reports Revisited

We get back to the usual script as we discuss top catching prospects, end-of-season fantasy assets, and review and discuss old scouting reports

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

This week's pearls focus on underrated prospects who, despite their flaws and imperfect approaches, just keep on hitting. There aren’t too many projected superstars in this week’s list, but a late-season 2026 or 2027 breakout could be on the horizon!

api.omarshehata.me

Underrated Gems Hit Their Stride: This Week in MiLB

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Today's article covers our in-person scouting of the second part of our MiLB tour. From Oyster sleeper Jaiden Lo Re to Franklin Arias and Kristian Campbell, check out our analyses of some of the game's best!

api.omarshehata.me

Lo Re Launches, Arias Amazes: Scouting Notes from Durham to Reading

We take deep dives into the swings of the most interesting prospects we saw in person in the second half of our Down on the Farm, Down on the Farm tour

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Today's podcast was a fun one, as we had the chance to interview Mariners MLB Field Coordinator Jake McKinley! We talked about his career, how he makes high-pressure decisions, and how he integrates data to form strong relationships with his players:

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 8/11/26: Mariners Field Coordinator Jake McKinley Joins the Pod

We interviewed Mariners MLB Field Coordinator Jake McKinley on his path into coaching, his player development philosophies and skillset, and his decision-making framework

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

This week's weekly pearls are devoted to the free swingers who found success this week. From Zac Veen to Jhonny Level, these contact and power threats had it all working!

api.omarshehata.me

Free Swingers Find What They've (V)een Chasing: This Week in MiLB

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Check out our full takes on the hitting prospects on the move during the deadline! From Nimmala to Frias and Hope, we break down the biggest deals and give out our trade grades. Who made out like bandits, and who overpaid?

downonthefarm.substack.com

All You Need to Know About the Top Hitting Prospects Traded at the Deadline

We break out all the models we've got and use in-person and video scouting to give you the down low on what to expect from the big minor league bats on the move

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

It was a hectic trade deadline for hitting prospects, and we've broken down the biggest moves! First, we briefly evaluated the prospect-involved trades in this week's Weekly Pearls, and then went more in-depth in today's podcast. Check both out in the replies:

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

In this week's podcast, we talk about our early takeaways from our Minor League baseball tour of the East and Midwest and highlight a pair of non-top 50 prospects who are putting together dominant seasons. Listen here:

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/28/26: MiLB Tour Thoughts, What Only Eyes Can See, Slugging Sleepers

We talk our early takeaways from our Minor League baseball tour of the East and Midwest and highlight a pair of non-top 50 prospects who are putting together dominant seasons.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

This week’s article features an underrated but potentially very valuable Brewers prospect and a Dodger slugger who gets lost in a ridiculously deep system. We’ve also got a strong week on a guy we’ve called an enigma to report on! Check it out:

api.omarshehata.me

More Dodger and Brewer Prospects Come Out of the Woodwork: Last Week's Most Important MiLB Performances

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Check out this week's podcast, featuring prospects to stash for the long term, a pair of young Yankees who may depart at the deadline, and how MLB's lack of victory-based financial incentives impacts development. Tune in below!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/21/26: Fantasy Prospect Tiers, Yanks on the Block, Cost of Success

We discuss prospects to stash for the long term, a pair of young Yankees who may depart at the deadline, and how MLB's lack of victory-based financial incentives impacts development

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Spain may have won the World Cup final, but even with Dodgers standout Emil Morales, they'd need some shocking upsets to win our Prospect World Cup! Check out our recent article where we go through a fictional tourney, share our rosters, and pick a champ!

api.omarshehata.me

The Prospect World Cup: Who Comes Out Top Nation in a Battle of Future MLB Stars?

Or: a modest proposal for a way to keep us entertained if there is a work stoppage next Spring

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

At the halfway point, the Rays are the kings of the minors, followed closely by the loaded Brewers organization. The Mets and Red Sox are at the bottom, despite the latter having a crop of strong-hitting prospects. Highly ranked prospects don't always translate to good records!

Bar chart titled "2026 MLB Organizational Records" with the subtitle "Combined MLB + MiLB | as of July 17, 2026." Organizations are ranked from lowest to highest combined winning percentage.

From left to right: New York Mets (249–318), Boston Red Sox (251–303), Oakland Athletics (244–286), Baltimore Orioles (263–300), Minnesota Twins (247–280), Chicago White Sox (252–284), San Diego Padres (272–297), Detroit Tigers (271–295), Philadelphia Phillies (260–279), Kansas City Royals (272–290), Arizona Diamondbacks (277–294), Toronto Blue Jays (279–289), Atlanta Braves (258–267), Miami Marlins (276–284), Cincinnati Reds (280–284), Pittsburgh Pirates (281–285), Houston Astros (278–281), Chicago Cubs (280–278), St. Louis Cardinals (265–260), Los Angeles Angels (271–265), Seattle Mariners (274–266), Cleveland Guardians (288–279), Texas Rangers (290–278), Colorado Rockies (297–273), Washington Nationals (276–253), New York Yankees (299–265), Los Angeles Dodgers (315–251), San Francisco Giants (318–247), Milwaukee Brewers (315–243), and Tampa Bay Rays (319–243), who lead all organizations.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

This week's podcast is a fun one: we interviewed former Reds minor leaguer and current London Met Quin Cotton! We spoke about his career, the use of data and analytics in player development, and the exciting current phase of his career playing in Europe.

api.omarshehata.me

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/14/26: Former Reds Minor Leaguer and International Baller Quin Cotton Hits the Pod!

We interviewed Quin about his career journey, the ins-and-outs of player development and analytics from a player's perspective, and the joy of the European baseball circuit

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This week's pearls are headlined by a crop of players who hopped off the struggle bus, hopefully setting them up for big second halves, while several other players receive yet another write-up to add to their hot 2026s. Check out this week's stars:

api.omarshehata.me

Struggle Bus No More and Familiar Faces

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Not all prospects are trending in the right direction this season! Today's article is devoted to those who are struggling in 2026. We break down their issues, how they can improve, and whether we think they're primed to get there. Check it out below!

api.omarshehata.me

Predicting the Fates of Five Prospects on the Struggle Bus

We take a look at five hitters who have struggled to put it all together this year and opine on how (and if) they can turn things around

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Check out this week's podcast where we discuss the fantasy upside of Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, how the potential for a lockout could shape the trade deadline, and how technology changes sport, for better and for worse. Tune in below!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Down on the Farm Podcast 7/7/26: Flexible JKG, Locked in for the Lockout, the Game's Gone

We assess the fantasy upside of Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, how the potential for a lockout could shape the trade deadline, and how technology changes sport, for better and for worse

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

We were high on Lara heading into 2026 (#31 overall), but even we did not anticipate his gains! His power went from poor to respectable, his walk skills still look good in AAA, and his defense remains strong. We have him as a high-floor, decent-ceiling regular and a CF anchor!

Prospect card for Luis Lara, a center fielder in the Milwaukee Brewers organization. Lara is ranked No. 23 overall and No. 3 in the Brewers system. His projected outcomes show a 92% chance to become an MLB contributor, a 92% chance to become a regular, and a 41% chance to reach star status. Relative tools are strongest in development speed (+1.86 SD), strike-zone discipline (+1.16), strikeout avoidance (+1.30), and contact (+0.98), with roughly average gap power (-0.04) and below-average home run power (-0.49) and lift (-0.89). A comparison at the bottom lists Rafael Ortega (2013), and the confidence meter is nearly full.

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

In this week's weekly pearls, two Dodgers outfielders do their best to separate themselves from their horde of sluggers, three of MiLB’s biggest boppers turned up their power, and a Marlin tries to swim against the current toward a bright future in Miami.

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Dodgers Duo Dominate, Three True Outcomes Proliferate: Digesting a Week of Slugging in MiLB

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

This week's article is centered on lift rates, a forgotten tool in a prospect's repertoire. Does lift matter? Can prospects reliably improve lift? Can big power, high ground ball players (like thumbnail model Hendry Mendez) find the lift to reach their HR ceilings? Read on to find out!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Can You Take Me Higher: Lift Rates, Why They Matter, and How They Change

Are worm-burner mashing prospects doomed to a life of grounders, or can they find the lift to raise their game?

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

We’ve got something for everyone this week. Oyster gems? Check. Older-than-average guys playing way above their projections? Mm-hmm. Mainstream home run mashers whom our own models sleep on? Also here. Check out this week's hottest performers!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Oyster Gems and Mainstream Mashers: Something for Everyone

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

In this month's Hot Streaks that Matter article, we highlight Eli Willits' power surge, a pair of Complex mashers, and a few prospects who've found their stride after slow 2025s. Check out our write-ups and why we think these surges are legit!

downonthefarm.substack.com

The Hot Streaks That Matter: June Edition

Oyster projections + streaks model + video analysis = an obsessively rigorous guide to May MiLB hot streaks

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

This week's hottest prospects have high-end strengths but also apparent weaknesses that keep them out of the mainstream. From Indy Ball ascenders to field-first guys with sneaky pop, this week’s Weekly Pearls has it all!

downonthefarm.substack.com

The Underdogs and the Underrated: Don't Sleep on this Week's Hottest Bats

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Reposted by Down on the Farm

Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Thanks to @oriolesontheverge.bsky.social for having us on the pod again! We talked about Orioles prospects, how their fortunes have changed since the start of the season, and how we prioritize contact vs. power skills at the lowest levels. Check it out:

O'ster Analytics Strikes Back

YouTube video by Orioles On the Verge

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

We've got another prospect evaluation comparison article for everyone! This time, we look at each of the major outlets' (and our) preseason "hot takes" to see how they've matured halfway through the season. Who did they nail, and which takes aged like milk?

downonthefarm.substack.com

How Have Everyone’s Preseason Prospect Hot Takes Aged?

We get back to our auditing ways, evaluating the bold predictions made by Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline, and ourselves prior to the season

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Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

In this week's DOTF Podcast, we talk about the fantasy upside of new promotions (Jordan, Pratt, Carrigg), how teams navigate prospect congestion, and how our human player projections differ from those of our robot overlords. Catch the pod on Substack!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Down on the Farm Podcast 6/16/26: Blazing Fantasy Start, Cyborg Projections, How Many is too Many?

We talk the fantasy upside of new promotions, how teams navigate prospect congestion, and how our human player projections differ from those of our robot overlords

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

This week's pearls consist of guys who came out of nowhere to have red-hot weeks (and seasons). Most of these standouts possess a hybrid of contact and power skills that get us (and our model) excited for their future. Check out the full article with the link in bio!

downonthefarm.substack.com

From Nowhere to the Mainstream: Breakouts and Gems Own the Week

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

Reposted by Down on the Farm

Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

We've been huge Blaze Jordan fans for the past two seasons, and his #56 preseason rank seemed a bit absurd at the time. He's been elite in AAA this year, showing off the full potential of his contact + power game (.313/ 11 HR). LA and EV are up, and we're excited for his debut!

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Today, we shed our robot overlords and use our own intuition for our "Cyborg" Oyster Top 25 List. Taking what we know about players (both from our own eyes, other reporting, and our models), we (Max and Owen) crafted personal Top 25 prospect lists. Who do we buck the model on?

downonthefarm.substack.com

The Mid-Season Oyster Top 25: Cyborg Edition

We combine the Oyster model with the savvy of the top (only) two organic minds at Oyster Analytics to rank the top 25 hitting prospects in baseball

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

With managers often getting stick for pitching change decisions that go wrong, we set out to evaluate these managerial calls. Splitting the Napoleons (those who let pitchers ride till the end) from the quick hook McClellans and Grants, we evaluate each manager's decision-making!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Are Some Managers Better at Bullpen Management Than Others?

We try to predict when starters get hooked and classify managers as Napoleons (of the "Autumn in Czechia" and "Winter in Russia" varieties), McClellans, and Grants

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

This week, for the Down on the Farm Podcast, we'd like to do a mailbag segment! Have questions on our rankings, prospects in general, in-game strategy, our past articles, or anything else? Now is the time to ask! We'll get to as many questions as we can on next Tuesday's pod!

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Our daily reports are delayed with some data issues, so in the meantime, check out this week's podcast on our Substack! We talk about some power-surging prospects, potential fringe prospect breakouts, and why third base coaching is hard!

downonthefarm.substack.com

Down on the Farm Podcast 6/2/26: EVs Change Lives, Quad-A Fantasy Assets, To Send or Not to Send

A pair of power gainers flourish, a couple of quad-A talents have an outside shot at fantasy productivity, and the misaligned incentives by which third base coaches are judged

Down on the Farm @downonthefarm.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Check out this week's top-performing pearls, featuring an Oyster top 100 snub as well as some under-the-radar Oyster gems. These standouts pack a punch!

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Can't Fight This Power: Sluggers Shine

The lowdown on the week's top MiLB performances, powered by Oyster projections and streaks modeling

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Reposted by Down on the Farm

Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

We were surprised when just-promoted Arroyo cracked our preseason top 30, but he's torn up Triple-A this season! His power is the best it has ever been, his contact rates are stellar, and he's elevating at a high rate. His lone fear is high chase rates, but his contact helps compensate!

Prospect card for Cincinnati Reds shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is ranked as the No. 37 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds system. Career outcome projections show an 84% chance of becoming a contributor, 69% chance of becoming a regular, and 49% chance of becoming a star. Relative skill grades versus league average highlight plus developmental speed (+1.46 SD), contact (+1.33), and strikeout avoidance (+0.94), with average gap power (+0.31), modest lift (+0.52), below-average plate discipline (-0.96), and near-average home run power (-0.04). The confidence meter is high, and his statistical comparison is Kevin Newman’s 2017 season.