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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Don't forget about the EMS abstract deadline next week! 💡

Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

📢 You can now submit your abstract to our session "Forecasting on sub-seasonal to seasonal to decadal timescales“ (lnkd.in/dR2RT7Wu) for the upcoming EMS AM in Ljubljana and online on 7-12 September 2025 (ems2025.eu). Abstract deadline: 14 April. We're looking forward to an interesting session! 💡

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

4/4 🤝 Feel free to get in touch if you want to exchange on these topics!

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

3/4 ‼️ I will still be partly employed in my previous position at ETH for some time to continue my work on subseasonal predictability of heat and drought in Switzerland.

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

2/4 💡In particular, we envision easier access to seamless weather and climate information for applications in the energy sector ranging from long-term planning of energy infrastructure to forecasting of energy production.

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

1/4 💼 I'm very excited to share my new position as a climate scientist at MeteoSwiss! 👨‍💻⛈️ My role will be to further develop and coordinate (ultra-)high-resolution climate products and services for the energy and health sectors of Switzerland.

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Interesting - also because it is consistent with the (predicted) strong stratospheric polar vortex, which fosters serial cyclone clustering (agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...) and generally more intense storms for N-Europe (doi.org/10.5194/wcd-...)

agu.confex.com

Exceptionally strong polar vortex significantly increased risk of intense UK and northern European storminess in February 2022

February 2022 was an unusually stormy month over northern Europe, including thr...

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

We're happy you like it. Unfortunately, though, it's not (yet) available online. But I really hope this will happen soon...

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Good point. In fact, here we did show significantly enhanced skill for month-ahead precipitation in certain Southern and Northern European countries following a strong (as well as weak) stratospheric polar vortex, but there are quite some regional differences: doi.org/10.1002/qj.3...

doi.org

Stratospheric influence on ECMWF sub‐seasonal forecast skill for energy‐industry‐relevant surface weather in European countries

Sub-seasonal forecast skill for 2 m temperature in European countries is more robustly enhanced following strong rather than weak states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV; reddish c...

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Indeed! I remember other winters when the Zonal regime forecast was surprisingly good multiple weeks ahead in combination with a strong polar vortex (it was either Feb 2020 or 2022; not sure anymore). Regarding the charts: Unfortunately, it's still not public, but I will talk to the "creator"... 😉

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Further info: doi.org/10.1038/ncli... and doi.org/10.1002/qj.4...

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Interesting! Also for the 7 Atlantic-European regime forecast I have rarely seen such a suppression of Greenland blocking (blue) throughout the forecast. I definitely also think that a strong stratospheric polar vortex coupling to the troposphere is an underestimated window of forecast opportunity.

ECMWF subseasonal forecast for 7 Atlantic-European weather regimes

ECMWF subseasonal forecast for the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

4/4: Our study demonstrates that subseasonal forecasts might be a great - but yet untapped - tool for issuing early warnings for heat-related mortality in Central Europe. We are thus keen to receive further feedback from health authorities to help making such warning systems operational!

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

3/4: For the two investigated showcase summers, we found that individual peaks of heat-related mortality can be predicted up to 2 weeks ahead, while longer periods of heat-related excess mortality can be anticipated 3-4 weeks ahead.

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

2/4: We applied methods from climate epidemiology to estimate the heat-mortality relationship for two densely populated Swiss cantons (ZH, GE). We then used bias-corrected and downscaled subseasonal temperature forecasts from the hot summers 2018 and 2022 to predict mortality attributable to heat.

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Dominik Büeler @dombueeler.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

1/4: In our new paper led by M. Pyrina, together with @anavicedo9.bsky.social, S. Sivaraj, C. Spirig, and D. Domeisen, we show promising potential for early warning of heat-related mortality in Switzerland 2-4 weeks ahead using @ecmwf.bsky.social subseasonal forecasts: doi.org/10.1029/2024... 🌡️🌆

doi.org

Subseasonal Prediction of Heat‐Related Mortality in Switzerland

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