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David Keller, CMT

@dkellercmt.bsky.social
435 followers 26 following 813 posts

Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only marketmisbehavior.com/bluesky

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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Could a powerful bullish breadth signal trigger next week? Today’s Mailbag covers the Zweig Breadth Thrust, market seasonality, trend lines, RSI divergences, momentum vs. trend following, and why investors need to stop overreacting to every daily move. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/cyGmirr-MGA
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Is a Powerful Breadth Thrust Signal About to Trigger? | CHART THIS
It’s Friday Mailbag time! Dave Keller tackles six viewer questions covering market seasonality, the proper way to draw trend lines, the Zweig Breadth Thrust, RSI divergences, momentum vs. trend…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
In the words of legendary technical analyst Alan Shaw, "When the going gets tough, the tough get eating, smoking, and drinking." $PM made a new closing high this week.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Anyone else picking up major "risk off" vibes from $NVDA going into the weekend? Still in a primary uptrend, still making higher highs and higher lows... but a lack of willing buyers Thu/Fri suggests low conviction.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#Bitcoin appearing to hold support at the 50-day moving average going into the weekend. Higher highs and higher lows are bullish, and the strong momentum profile suggests plenty of strength underlying this trend. Innocent until proven guilty!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Tech got hammered today, but here's the twist: most S&P 500 stocks actually went UP. Is leadership finally rotating away from mega-cap growth? Today: semis, defensive sectors, Bitcoin support, Apple, crude oil and more. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/ol7zbLGn7EQ
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The Market Is Rotating Away From Tech. Here’s Where Money Is Going | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 pulled back from its recent all-time high, but underneath the surface the market told a much more interesting story. Dave breaks down the sharp weakness in mega-cap growth and…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Kudos to Bloomberg for a simple but powerful visualization of the changing impact of headlines on the price of crude oil. Perhaps we're making decisions less on emotions and more on evidence? Seems like a fine idea to me! www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The performance gap between the Mag7 $MAGS and the $SPX without the Mag7 $XMAG is striking over the last three months. And if there is some sort of rotation from mega cap growth to "everything else", where does that leave our growth-dominated benchmarks? Most likely not in a position of strength.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Beaten down breadth measures hooked higher on Mon/Tue, but I'd want to see a much more dramatic improvement in moving average breadth readings to become more confident in meaningful upside for the S&P 500.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Anyone else feel like a future book on the "Great AI Bubble" will include an entire chapter to feature headlines like this one? $SPCX $NVDA
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The S&P 500 just closed above 7,800 for the first time. Price? Bullish. Momentum? Bullish. Breadth? Getting better, but still the big question. Plus, why and how some Tech charts are breaking out while others are breaking down. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/eHIgSGUq1jc
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The S&P 500 Breaks 7,800, But One Thing Is Still Missing | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 pushed above 7,800 to a new all-time closing high, with improving momentum providing further confirmation of the recent bull flag breakout. But underneath the surface, the evidence…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The S&P 500 finally gave the bulls something they’ve been missing: FOLLOW-THROUGH. ✅ Bull flag breakout holds ✅ Materials lead the market ✅ Leadership expands beyond tech ⚠️ Breadth still needs work Plus: $NVDA $MSFT $MU $AVGO $HPE $FICO & more New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/A505ZBUoHW8
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The S&P 500 Bull Flag Is Finally Breaking Out | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 finally delivered the upside follow-through bulls have been waiting for, pushing higher after Friday's breakout from a bull flag pattern. Even more encouraging, leadership expanded beyond…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Can stocks AND interest rates keep rising at the same time? Absolutely. The historical relationship may surprise you! Today’s Mailbag tackles that, plus Bitcoin, choosing ETFs, defensive sectors, and nearly 24-hour trading. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/94Iju7wEx8w
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Can Stocks Keep Rising With Interest Rates? | CHART THIS
It’s Friday Mailbag time! Dave Keller answers six viewer questions covering everything from Bitcoin chart patterns and ETF selection to defensive sectors, interest rates, and the future of technical…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day today, but the internals remain concerning. The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has fallen from above 70% to just 31% in about six weeks. More than 200 stocks have flipped to bearish signals. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/Xmw4GRe9cds
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The S&P Holds Support, But Breadth Is Flashing a Warning | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 opened below its 50-day moving average before buyers stepped in, producing a doji candle right at this critical support level. But beneath the surface, market breadth remains a major…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
4 out of 5 S&P 500 stocks are now below their 50-day moving average. Technology was the ONLY sector higher today. The indexes may look stable, but underneath the surface the story is very different. New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/kt8_wzPnMJA
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4 Out of 5 S&P 500 Stocks Are Below Their 50-Day | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 suffered another weak close, finishing almost exactly at its 50-day moving average as the market continues to show a noticeable lack of upside conviction. Dave Keller breaks down the…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I'm more of a trend follower (buy strength) than a mean reversion trader (buy weakness), but the setup on $RCL seems to check all the boxes. Nice bounce off established support, RSI pushing out of oversold region, PPO confirming a bullish upside reversal. Maybe it's just a straightforward chart!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
How bullish do I want to be when less than 50% of $SPX members are above their 200-day MA... and less than 30% are above their 50-day?
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Is this a stealth bear market? The S&P 500 is holding near recent highs, but underneath the surface: 📉 Only ~45% of stocks are above their 200-day 📉 Only ~25% are above their 50-day 📉 Breadth keeps deteriorating New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/f9qOa5TTwAs
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Is This a Stealth Bear Market? | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 continues to hold near recent highs, but the picture underneath the surface is becoming much more concerning. Dave breaks down the failed attempts to escape a bull flag pattern, neutral…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The $SPX has gone NOWHERE for two months. But underneath the surface? 3 out of 4 S&P 500 stocks are below their 50-day moving average. Is this becoming a stealth bear market? New CHART THIS 👇 youtu.be/SaQzuutrB_M
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The Market Is Much Weaker Than the S&P 500 Suggests | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 may appear to be moving sideways, but the average stock is telling a much more bearish story. Dave Keller breaks down the growing divergence between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Friday Mailbag! 📬 Why RSI 60 instead of 50? Can weak breadth actually be bullish? Has the Hindenburg Omen changed? How do you find opportunities beyond AI? Great questions this week! New CHART THIS: youtu.be/VSO7ifWZQZE
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Is Weak Market Breadth Actually a Bullish Signal? | CHART THIS
🎯 BEST VALUE: Alpha Picks + Premium Bundle: SAVE $159 Get Alpha Picks stock recommendations + Seeking Alpha Premium in one bundle. https://marketmisbehavior.com/sabundle It's Friday mailbag time!…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I'm finding some surprisingly strong charts in Health Care. Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO is a great example: Breakout above resistance ✔️ Strong follow-through ✔️ Improving relative strength ✔️ Even in a weak market, there are pockets of leadership!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Never confuse the top of the page with resistance." The 10-Year yield is approaching 5.2%, well above its 2023 high. 5% may FEEL like a ceiling. But the chart doesn't care how high rates feel. For now, the trend remains higher.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The S&P 500 went nowhere today. But underneath the surface, roughly twice as many NYSE stocks were DOWN as UP. The indexes can hold up while fewer stocks participate. Until breadth improves, meaningful upside could be tough.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The S&P 500 was flat today, but plenty happened underneath. Breadth keeps deteriorating, the 10-Year yield is nearing 5.2%, transports remain weak, and healthcare is producing some interesting breakouts. New CHART THIS: youtu.be/lBo-Drtk5Y4
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The Market Looks Quiet, But Something Is Breaking Underneath | CHART THIS
🎯 Seeking Alpha Premium: SAVE $30 Access Quant Ratings, stock analysis, earnings insights & more. https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished Thursday essentially…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Maybe the most important chart I'm watching right now. Fewer than 50% of $SPX stocks are now above their 200-day moving average. Back in August, about 70% were above their 50-day. Now that's below 30%. The indexes can hide a lot. Breadth tells what's actually happening underneath the surface.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Monday: big rally. Tuesday: indecision. Wednesday: big move lower. That gives us an evening star pattern on the $SPX, a classic three-candle bearish reversal setup. Add in RSI failing to break above 60, and the attempted breakout suddenly looks a lot less convincing. Next 1-3 sessions are key.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The S&P 500 and Bitcoin just flashed the SAME bearish reversal pattern. Meanwhile, the 10-Year yield is above 5% and fewer than half of S&P stocks are above their 200-day. Some important warning signs are piling up. New CHART THIS: youtu.be/2UfVEN9Iqjc
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The S&P 500 Just Flashed a Bearish Reversal Pattern | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 reversed lower on Wednesday, completing an evening star candlestick pattern that could signal further short-term weakness. In this episode of CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down the…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I MEANT 2007! Typos are brutal.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Ten Year Treasury Yield pushes above 5%, its highest level since 2027. Probably nothing. 👀
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The $VIX can't get below 14, can it? Actually, the VIX has pushed below 14 many times. Volatility is less about static levels (although I watch a couple pretty closely!) and more above "volatility regimes" and what is high/low for this particular period. Right now, $VIX < 14 is super low!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
We are dangerously close to less than 30% of $SPX members remaining above their 200-day moving averages. Is this the end of the world for risk assets? Not necessarily. But is this a common pattern during distribution phases? Yeppers.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
100% on this. D
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The S&P 500 just flipped from a potential breakdown to a potential breakout. But breadth still isn't confirming the move. Plus: Meta +11%, semis surge and Bitcoin >$86K. New CHART THIS: youtu.be/izJYd5DVyik
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The S&P 500 Breaks Out, But There’s One Big Problem | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 surged 1.5% on Monday and appears to have resolved its potential bull flag pattern to the upside, putting new all-time highs back within reach. But can we trust the breakout? In this…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
#NAAIM Exposure Index down to 72% this week, down from over 100% just three weeks ago. Conclusion? Money managers in this survey have taken their foot off the accelerator, and are now stepping on the brakes.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Pretty major shift this week in the #AAII survey, with only 29% bulls compared to 53% bears. Highest bearish reading since the March 2026 market low, and the widest spread of Bears-Bulls since April 2025!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Now less than 30% of $SPX members remaining above their 50-day moving averages. Last time that happened? Mid-March 2026, a couple weeks before the low. 🤔
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Yesterday: S&P 500 breaks 7600. Today: S&P reclaims 7600, tech surges, VIX drops below 16. The lesson? One-day breakdowns need confirmation. New CHART THIS is up now: youtu.be/gDhKId0lvD0
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The Bulls Just Took Back Control of 7600 | CHART THIS
One day after the S&P 500 broke below the key 7600 level, buyers came roaring back and completely changed the technical picture. Dave Keller explains why the lack of downside follow-through puts the…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Not everything is breaking down! Energy stocks continue to make new highs, and cybersecurity is showing some impressive relative strength. In the new CHART THIS, I break down the $SPX warning signs AND the charts that are still working. Watch here: youtu.be/S-yJF69TGJg
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The S&P 500 Is One Down Day Away From Trouble | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 closed back below the key 7600 level, leaving the potential bull flag pattern just one down day away from a bearish resolution. In this episode of CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down the…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
How bullish do I want to be on $NVDA is the stock is unable to hold support at the 50-day MA? If $NVDA pushed down once again to its 200-day, would I anticipate another bounce higher?
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
You could consider the chart of #gold as a potential head and shoulders top, or perhaps just featuring a key support range around 4300. If you assume the latter, then this week's action could be breaking below our "line in the sand". $GLD
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I learned a long time ago that while equity investors tend to be focused on potential gains, bond investors are often way better at detecting potential risks. So when the $MOVE index starts to spike higher before the $VIX does, that means someone somewhere is seeing something...
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
$SPX once again testing the lower end of a potential bull flag pattern. How bullish do I want to be if the chart breaks below clear support?...
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The S&P 500 is sitting at a pretty fascinating decision point. 7600 remains my line in the sand, while a break above ~7720 would confirm the potential bull flag. The problem? Semiconductors $SMH are moving in the wrong direction! New CHART THIS is up now: youtu.be/RJbMOsE1kLU
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The S&P 500 Is at a Crucial Decision Point | CHART THIS
The S&P 500 is holding the key 7600 level, but weakness in technology and semiconductors is putting the potential bull flag pattern under serious pressure. In this episode of CHART THIS, Dave Keller…
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Our Market Trend Model, based on weekly $SPX data, turned negative on the short-term time frame for the 4th time since the March 2026 market low. Previous three occurrences resulted in a very buyable dip for $SPY. This time is different?.....
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
$SPX once again testing our "line in the sand" support at 7600. So far, going with the classic "bend don't break" philosophy, but AI weakness could absolutely push this chart lower. Would a breakdown here set us up for a classic Q4 rally?
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Ten Year Treasury Yield $TNX at its highest level since 2007? Probably nothing... 👀
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
We'll see where the close ends up... but crude oil is most likely flashing a dark cloud cover candle pattern, implying short-term weakness going into next week. This bearish reversal pattern is popping up as crude is in the overbought condition after this week's strong rally.
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Looks like we'll finish the week with around 40% of $SPX members above their 50-day moving average. Friday's been the only decent breadth day this week, but the trend in these indicators is the biggest concern here, speaking to internal weakness going into next week!
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Zscaler $ZS had a pretty compelling setup going into earnings last week... higher low and a retest of major resistance around $190, where I set a price alert. Unfortunately that price alert was never triggered, and now $ZS has dropped back below the crucial 200-day MA. 📉
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
$SPCX is finally pushing above its opening day open at $150. A confirmed move above this initial trade could imply an accumulation phase for this long awaited IPO, and would also mean that investors that bought on the first day of trading may actually be sitting on a paper profit! 📈👀
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David Keller, CMT @dkellercmt.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
No half votes! TAKE A STAND! :)
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