iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Once we get some substantial VBM returns I'll include those as well As usual, it's one day, don't read too much into it Ohio is also a majority eday state so the amount of missing information here will be higher than in a state like Georgia

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OH IPEV turnout as a % of Day 1 2024 Harris Counties: 80.1% Trump Counties: 67.6% *I used each county's provided data for the Harris-won counties, but can't go through every single one for the rest of Ohio, so the Trump counties might be a bit understated here

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I am not convinced this is actually true yet, though I wish it were because it’s better to vote in person Comparing to 2022 will largely see big drops in VBM usage because 2022 was still pandemic-era voting behavior But is VBM behavior meaningfully changing vs 2024? Not at all clear to me

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Albemarle always being behind a day makes it hard to tell but locality data looks like this

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Most won’t open until the last two weeks of EV or later

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IPEV turnout has been very high for the past week in VA relative to 2025 The past week’s had Harris +>15 localities ~130% of same-days 2025 Trump +>15 around 115% Cumulative hasn’t caught up yet but I’m skeptical it’ll hold up long-term

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(Apparently Franklin was 74%)

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bc yall are impatient rats, here are the four Harris counties I could find data for and the four largest Trump +>20 counties I could find data for It's just day 1, don't read too much into it

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Michigan randomly being exceptional for Rs lmao

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YouGov released a ton of polls just now, here are the topline Margins for Sen & Gov from all of them Asterisk on NE Gov bc it has way more undecideds than most of the others (result was 44-43), and they're like 75%+ Trump 2024 voters

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yep, either no breakdown at all or doesn't differentiate between ipev and vbm

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Alright friends, OH IPEV starts today, so here are the numbers from the 7 counties Harris won in 2024's first two weeks. IPEV was very blue in 2024 (in the counties that break down results) I'd proceed with caution with these numbers bc OH is still overwhelmingly an eday state

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There will be more revelatory info later in the EV window, when the vote becomes increasingly reliant on less engaged voters

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Yes, Harris+15 or better counties did 126% of same-day 2025 (likely a slight undercount) Trump+15 or better did 114% But what we need to understand about VA is that looking for "surges" within the EV window is like looking for sprints in a snail race We are getting less than 1% of votes daily

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You can also sometimes see vote history in voter files So you can say “oh, a higher share of voters in Dem areas have never voted or only voted once, meanwhile in Republican areas it’s all voters who vote every election” or vice versa

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Relative to the first few days, yes but the past several have been pretty consistent The cumulative numbers are still trying to catch up

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VA IPEV: We didn't get updates from a handful of big Harris +30-50 localities, so ignore the shift in shares But of what did report, turnout is still making big gains on 2025 across the board

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ik yall have been on the edge of your seats, waiting for this one with bated breath Alaska released its September RV report today

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VA has no weekend voting right now so we’re only missing the one Friday of data! I’ll probably update again tomorrow

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Texas unironically has the single most fickle electorate in the country My understanding is that Rs really fear catastrophic turnout here - so the a lot of the next month will be about mobilization. In that sense, a month is a lot of time to get at least a little bit done

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The bottom row is active RVs and the top row in total RVs the trends look identical either way and im too lazy to go back and redo one row

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I'm sure yall have seen a lot of these, but just synthesizing the voter reg changes from September

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It’s just dead here I live in Montgomery county and it’s just freakishly quiet

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Republican state rep in Texas:

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People broadly underestimate how insane Texan turnout dynamics are %RV turnout in 2018 in Trump+70 Wise: 57% Trump+62 Liberty: 44% Harris+39 Travis: 63% in 2024 Wise: 69% Liberty: 58% Travis: 63% 😐😐😐

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unironic question bc I'm not in the know, was age a problem for Lula? Did he pull a Biden here almost feels like Brazil has been a replay of what's happened in the US with a two-year delay for the past decade with how much mirroring there's been

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Let me put some bad vibes out in the universe and say imagine if the final round of NYT’s polling just looks like their June polls again 😶

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So Lakshya pointed this out wrt to his polling, but Rs could have a serious youth turnout problem this year These huge 18-44 numbers for Talarico and Peltola are prob partially explained by that - two very young states with extremely fickle electorates

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Here are the demo changes in the NYT Siena polls from AK and TX from June to September In Alaska: Trump and Sullivan approval/fav dropped a ton and the age breakdown looks more normal In Texas: Talarico has firmer Black support and seemingly a kinder likely electorate

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They normally post gov elections the following day, and inside all the polls the gov questions are withheld lmao

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Also NYT is my preferred polling aggregator right now so I went to their website and the gov races are all there But looking through the polls themselves it seems like they might have meant to have been withheld until tomorrow 😭

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fwiw I have no November tea leaves for you here I think this suggests a more durable turnout advantage than 2024, but 2026 having a better turnout dynamic for Ds than 2024 isn’t exactly revolutionary More we don’t know than we do

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Here's the same data in table form As yall can see, the shift in relative turnouts is even more pronounced The 26.1% turnout of Dem 18-24 yos is not too far off from the 32.5% turnout for them in the 2022 general

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