dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 22/02/2025🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW26. Alisson ➡️ Raya Rogers ➡️ Dango JP ➡️ Welbeck (3/4) Got off to a good start. 🌍 550K 1100
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 06/02/2025Yeah, I’m with you. I’ll be happy with the decision either way. 010
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 05/02/2025Yep, will largely depend on what happens over the next two days (Spurs miracle at Anfield being the best outcome), but if things go by the odds script then it’s likely a late AM path for me. 100
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 05/02/2025I’m with Thomas on this one. I think Moyes AM was more than fine in your spot, WR. If I could have walked into it I might not have given other options much thought, but ultimately I’m glad I was forced to consider other paths. EVE win next week and maybe I’ll change my mind 😄 120
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 02/02/2025Thanks mate! Happy with the outcome so far too. Provided a little reasoning to Simon just now: bsky.app/profile/dilk... 100
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 02/02/2025But seriously, I think especially in my spot (3 LIV, only 3 FTs after an early transfer, nothing ITB) it made sense and solved pretty well. And then regardless, there’s enough scenarios where it works out better than the AM path. JC also sold me on maintaining some flexibility. And, as ever, fun! 230
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 01/02/2025I don't actually think it's going to happen and looked OK if it doesn't, but if it does...oh baby! 110
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 01/02/2025🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW24. Triple Captain. DCL ➡️ Ndiaye (1/4). See you on the other side 🫡 🌍 754K 3220
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 18/01/2025🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW22. Rolling (0/3) Haven't gone anywhere since GW13. Stuck in this small, provincial town we call the 600Ks. Sick of the sight of this team. Got transfers, but can't do anything about it. Here we go again I guess. 🌍 650K (maybe I've always been here) 0100
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 15/01/2025I guess you, probably not unfairly, believe that 'analytics' broadly isn't doing much adjusting? But then, as far as I'm concerned, we're still in our infancy and getting to grips with the tools and processes available. We should just absolutely be vigilant against complacency and our own biases. 040
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 15/01/2025without entirely abandoning thinking about the things we've been freed from. My position is basically that we should begin from and maintain a mathematical framework. Like with poker, you start from solver generated ranges and *then* learn how to adjust. 140
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 15/01/2025I'm completely with you that data shouldn't be all that we're shaped by and we can improve our frameworks, but I'm with Simon that the pen % issue feels more like an inability to think probabilistically. I still believe that we should think of data as 'freeing' us to think about other things, but 130
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 14/01/20253) I don't accept that people have their own strategies and decisions in the way we often imagine. We're always already within a framework. Ultimately, only by accepting how malleable you are can you begin to understand what you should be shaped by. There are worse things to be shaped by than data. 120
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 14/01/2025Few things: 1) Short form is inadequate for this conversation so you should complete that article and then we should do a pod discussing it 😉 2) I want to emphasise that this shift in thinking is possible/necessary whether a person uses a model or is 'maximising xP' in their head or whatever. 120
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 13/01/2025I suppose so. We're always balancing these two, not distinct, 'modes of operation' lets call them, among all the other stuff, but I guess I do believe there should be a shift in which mode we prioritize at this point in the season because there's an even more extreme relationship with uncertainty. 120
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 13/01/2025Think I sit on the side of this perhaps being the kind of xP you still want to maximise (depending on how many Liverpool you have/your 24/25 strategy). 100
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 13/01/2025'Rather than trying to maximise points, you're trying to maximise the amount of flexibility that you have at times when information becomes available' - @trout-post.com 4300
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 04/01/2025🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ Rollin' New Year, New me trying to actually bank some transfers. 🌍 545K 050
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 30/12/2024OK. I do have to hold my hands up and say I wish I’d been less fixated on WC6. 130
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 26/12/2024🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW18. Saka ➡️ Øde Solanke ➡️ Isak Games a bit dull at the moment as multiple factors force a convergence of teams, but who cares? It's Christmas and I wish you all the merriest of seasons! 🌍 520K 060
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 23/12/2024I have to remember to get the bloody screenshots before deadline 😄 010
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 15/12/2024Doesn’t hit the same when you wait until I’m toppled by negative variance. 110
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 14/12/2024🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW16. Gvardiol ➡️ TAA Porro ➡️ Colwill Highly correlated with lots of good managers. Comforting. 🌍 408K 170
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 10/12/2024Adult Content label because that amount of xP over Prime at this stage is obscene. 000
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 07/12/2024🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW15. Rolling. I'm pleased the necessary precautions were taken to ensure people's safety even though it's not to the benefit of my FPL team. 🌍 670K 0130
Reposted by dilksyWee Rogue @wee-rogue.bsky.social · 03/12/2024Visualising the strength of the Premier League "Big Six" with a long-term moving average of their xG dominance: a (logged) ratio of their xG relative to their xGA. For the first time in the last 6 years Man City are not 1st by this measure, but in fact 3rd behind Arsenal (1st) & Liverpool (2nd). 1217634
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 04/12/2024I should have named it uppity bitches having opinions above their station. 010
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 04/12/2024The joy of this app v Elon’s dungeon for sad and gullible Nazis is that I can see who’s liked your ‘Team bad’ and I want those people to know they’re going on a list. 110
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 03/12/2024It’s having to immediately renege on the terrible Digne pick for me. 020
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 03/12/2024🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW14. Bruno ➡️ Bukayo Chasing last weeks points. 🌍 570K 2150
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 01/12/2024The cartel should simply learn how to tap into variance. 130
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 30/11/2024🏎️ 2 Faes 2 Furious 🏎️ GW12. DCL ➡️ JP I'm still playing this fantasy football game. 🌍 800K 020
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 21/11/2024Thought people like you weren’t going to be allowed on this app. 060
dilksy @dilksybab.bsky.social · 21/11/2024confused_carlo_dilksy is basically a sacred object at this point. Would have been a hate crime. 000
