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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

If the Strait remains closed, oil prices rise. Jared would do well as he’s invested in oil. Kind of makes you wonder if they are doing this purposefully. #FinSKy #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/dhtaylor...

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Personal incomes fell to 0% year-over-year growth—expenditures will be follow. How do corporate revenues continue if the consumer is stagnant while price pressures keep going higher? #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Comparing gold & M2 money supply, inflation adjusted, you see parallels. Gold has cleared the money display growth. Could a new Fed chairman may contain price action? #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

For now, oil prices move lower. Shortages will remain, and we may see price bidding—it will take months, if not a couple of years to get back #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

It’s getting so bad… I created my UofM Confidence chart with a bottom at 45 for aesthetics—we broke below that. The correlation between confidence and consumption will drive the economy and market. I will be focusing more on this in my next free newsletter post. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Calls in the S&P 500 have soared. The put:call ratio is at a very low point showing the level of bullishness

Put call ratio is pushing to very low levels

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Wondering what the put : call ratio tells us:

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

Silver has struck gold and shot through to a new all-time high. Is this a good investment? Silver is a byproduct of mining for copper, zinc, & lead. Mining companies in general, such as #XLB ETF are seeing price surges. Follow all metals. #EconSky #FinSky #StockMarket #Economy

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

Big week for economic data with jobs on Friday. Money growth has slowed, usually pulling employment growth down. But bad news is likely to be good news for the stock market—the Fed will cut rates in 2026! #EconSky #FinSky #StockMarket #Economy

Money supply growth rate is slowing, which typically brings employment growth rates down. This week, we get jobs data, and the money supply growth rate indicates we are likely to see slower jobs. Bad news may work out well for the stock market because this would indicate that the Fed is likely to cut rates further, which would push the stock market higher.

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

Is affordability a left-wing conspiracy? Actually, you can see how prices are outpacing incomes in this chart showing PCE Index (Red) versus inflation-adjusted personal incomes. Consumers cannot keep up. #FinSKy #EconSky #Economics

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Consumer sentiment has hit rock bottom, and may start to turn higher. Look beyond that. Very likely to see the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court soon. Expenditures will increase from buying power without the tariffs. Consumer stocks will rise fast. #FinSky #EconSky #Economy #StockMarket

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

PCE Price index will be released Friday for September. Looking beyond, the tariffs will be struck down by the Supreme Court. That will reinvigorate consumer economic activity, while also dropping price pressures. #EconFin #Economy #Stockmarket

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

AI stock valuations are high, but not in 'bubble-concerning' territory. Historically, forward P/E ratios have been higher. Still, AI stocks that offer data services are rich and profits need to materialize. #StockMarket #Economy #Investing

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Nvidia stock sold last week despite solid earnings, but that does not indicate a bubble. NVDA is trading at 29.9x forward, whereas the S&P500 is at 22.36x Other stocks within the AI trade may be overvalued, and #NVDA stock may not move because of other stocks #StockMarket #Trading #Economy

NVDA stock sold after last week's earnings.
Is the AI trade a bubble? Is NVDA stock overvalued?
These questions are causing the market to be cautious. Because of that, NVDA stock last week, despite a solid earnings release, sold off.
First, the real culprit for selling may have been Federal Reserve members making comments that a rate cut may not be in the cards next month, and from that the broad market sold off. Since then, there’s been another Fed member stating they believe a rate cut is possible in the next meeting… and the market whipsaws back upward.
As for NVDA stock, the forward P/E ratio is a mere 29.9x with expected EPS of $6.02 over the following four quarters. This is slightly above the S&P 500 average of about 22.65. Keep in mind, Nvidia continually increases their revenue expectations as business continues to grow by leaps and bounds.
NVDA stock is likely not a bubble at this price, but that does not mean investors are going to continually push the price higher and higher. Other stocks in the AI trade, may, however, be a bit overvalued relative to future earnings and growth potential, and this may keep a lid on NVDA price increases.

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Non-Farm Payrolls added more jobs than expected in September, but saw negative revisions in previous months. The Federal Reserve will have to contend with data skew in its upcoming decision. I expect no move in the upcoming meeting #Economy #StockMarket #Investing

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

NVDA stock has shot up from its earnings release with better-than-expected revenue, earnings, and forecast. However, #NVDA stock is having trouble maintaining upward momentum. Look for future bottom up revenue declines from other AI companies first #StockMarket #Investing #Economy

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Walmart stock is shooting up on better-than-expected revenue and earnings, and they have increased their forecast. Online and delivery are leading the charge; this, despite the tariffs and price pressures. #Stockmarket #Investing #Economy

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

The Home Depot #HD stock, took a hit after missing earnings. This is a sign of the tariffs effects on the consumer and overall economy But the tariffs will eventually be struck down by the Supreme Court, giving the consumer their money back. #StockMarket #Investing #Economy

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Michael Burry is short #NVDA and is already slightly profitable. The $110 puts for 17DEC2027 have plenty of time, and likely lot of rationale for continued downside moves. AI trade is likely to succumb to bottom-up selling as companies fall short of profits #Trading #StockMarket

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

How well is the consumer doing? Confidence & consumption are closely correlated. Confidence is in the gutter. But the concerns are the tariffs and shutdown; Both will shift. Given that, consumer staples stocks may see potential upside #EconFin #StockFin

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Look for choppy stock market action in the coming days until the data flow resumes. Given that, the consumer looks taxed and weary of the future as we saw in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index last week.

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

The CME Fed Cut prediction is showing balanced for December. The Fed is flying blind—the resumption of data from the shutdown will take time. Without reasonable data, the Fed makes no moves in December, and for that, the stock market sold off. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is at its 2nd-worst reading in history. This week, I am looking to the Consumer Staple sector of the S&P 500, the only sector in the red this year. This will show the difference in the AI economy v. consumers. #EconSky #FinSKly

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

The employment situation remains sideways with no real impact yet from tariff taxation. Initial claims and continuing claims have not moved much. Unemployment will move as Federal workers who've taken voluntary furloughs start to show up in data, just not jobless claims #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

The M2 Money Supply growth declined for the month of August, and this portends economic contraction in the economy. Money supply is driven by business growth and consumer expenditures via fractional banking. If supply declines, growth follows. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

The next major economic release will be is Tuesday with M2 Money Supply. If the pace of money growth slows, this shows continued decrease in economic activity from the tariffs. This is more of a leading indicator, and one of the key economic data points. #FinSKy #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

The US 10-year Treasury yield is moving lower to start the week on increased likelihood of rate cuts amidst slowing private-sector employment. But if the economy slows, there will be less tax take by the government which will drive interest rates up #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Trump is imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as a punishment for the trial of Bolsonaro. Coffee futures had been much higher earlier on fears of a poor harvest. So, while the price of coffee did move higher on the latest news, it is inconsequential in the overall picture. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Euro currency has soared since January as the US dollar has sold off. Versus the Chinese yuan, this will improve terms of trade for European consumers and businesses buy raw materials. But, eventually, the ECBN may take note and make changes. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Copper soared to a new all-time high. Tariff threats have driven the price of the industrial metal higher on price hikes. Copper typically follows economic expansion. However, tariffs are an anomaly, and the price of copper is artificially inflated as a result. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

The stock market rallied Thursday after non-farm payrolls showed continued strong numbers. In the meantime, tariffs are back in consideration with a slew of activity likely to occur this week as the deadline looms. The Big Beautiful Bill passed: bond market has taken notice. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

The US Dollar Index continues to slide lower as investors leave for other opportunities. Whereas during the COVID-led inflation, investors flocked to the US, now those funds are finding other opportunities. The US economy will react in kind. #FinSKy #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

The stock market has rallied to new all-time highs after April's selloff. The leading sector? Industrials. AXON is up 1,000% in five years with many others seeing big triple-digit returns over the same time period. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 28/06/2025

Inflation edged higher. Tariffs, however, will worsen this trend. That, in turn, will push unemploynet upward. While the Federal Reserve will act to maintain employment growth, the balance will shift in favor of slower economic growth. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 28/06/2025

Personal incomes & expendtures declined month-over-month, but are still positive year-over-year. However, that pace is declining. This is the future of the US economic growth rate. Factor in tariffs, the economy grows less rapidly #FinSKy #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

The stock market is up 5.25% year-to-date. Some sectors are outperforming the broader market. Then, if you break down the individual sectors, you see some stocks outperform within. This potentially leads a tale of two economies with cracks under the surface #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

The stock market, via SPY ETF, cleared its February all-time highs—QQQ ETF, a.k.a., the Nasdaq, did so yesterday. There are still headwinds for the economy and stock market with the full impact of tariffs hitting. For now, stocks are soaring. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

The US Dollar index continues to slide. The latest is fear that Trump will install a "Tes-Man" that will push the economy outside of prudent policies. Along with unfavorable fiscal policies, the combination threatens to derail the US economy #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

The yield curve has moved since the last month on comments the Fed will likely move interest rates soon. The chart shows the change in the yield curve from the previous month. The budget bill, however, will pressure the long end of the curve in the future #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Despite a lot of geopolitical risks, the US 10-Year Treasury yield remains contained. Now, the yield will be driven more so by US fiscal & monetary policies. Look for the next budget to add considerable debt which will drive yields higher. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Oil prices continue lower today as the fear of supply disruptions abates. How much lower can oil prices go? Considering economic trends due to tariffs, prices may continue to move lower over time, but the big move is over. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

Oil prices initially shot up on the US attacks on Iran. The market doesn't believe anything further will come of this, and already the price of oil is lower than Friday's close—No expectations of the Strait closure exist, either. #FinSKy #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

The year-over-year change in retail sales growth is declining. Tariffs will force consumers to restrict expenditures. But, the pace of growth had already been slackening. If consumers place expenditures on a lower gear, the economy will follow. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

Very quietly on Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was released—during fears of the Iran/Israel escalation. The UofM number improved significantly from its near all-time low. Now, we await retail sales to see what tariff impacts there are on consumers #FinSKy #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 12/06/2025

No big surprise that the trade balance reversed for the month of May from all-time lows. Inflation has yet to materialize in data from tariffs. With all of the manufacturers and suppliers pre-ordering ahead of the tariffs, there is room before prices need to increase. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Interest rates are little changed post-CPI data release. However, the longer trend continues, and the concerns of higher deficits in the United States as well as the rest of the world are pressuring interest rates higher. #EconSky #FinSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Core inflation moved sideways for May. Tariffs will push price pressures up, but gradually—most consumers & companies are either deferring expenditures or pre-ordered. Then the tariffs go away via court-order ruling. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

The yield curve is inverted. This tells us the bond market's expectations for future inflation. The dip in the middle tells the market believes the Fed will lower interest rates. In the meantime, they remain on hold. #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Watch the consumer rate. Notwithstanding economic hardship from tariffs, for now incomes are growing and jobs are strong. Consumers may save money or pay debts. After the tariffs are removed, there will be pent-up consumer demand and the economy would see a jolt of activity #FinSky #EconSky

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D. H. Taylor Analysis @dhtayloranalysis.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Ahead of non-farm payrolls, the number of individuals losing their jobs increased modestly despite massive policy shifts and ongoing friction. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll will likely be subdued. #EconSKy #FinSky

Initial Jobless Claims show slight increase in unemployed

Continuing jobless claims show increasing unemployment rate

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