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Devin Lavelle

@devinlavelle.bsky.social
341 followers 320 following 151 posts

Husband, father, CRB Assistant Director (#CALeg CAGov research), cheerleader for Pocket-Greenhaven, @SacState & evidence-based governance, former @SacStateAlumni prez

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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
See the whole thing on my Substack: Subscribe to Studies in the News: ERS data: www.ers.usda.gov/data-product... BEA data: www.bea.gov/data/prices-...
ers.usda.gov
Food Expenditure Series | Economic Research Service
The Food Expenditure Series measures the value of food acquired in the United States by type of product, outlet, and purchaser. National estimates are available monthly and annually, while State-level...
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Of course, that’s just food sales — not the amount of food. In comparison to cost of living, the latest (Feb 2026) data from the @BEA_News (under the U.S. Department of Commerce) puts California’s cost of living at 10.7% higher than the national average ...
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We also know where we are spending it. We spend modestly more (6.4%) on food at home ($3,403 vs $3,197, 10th nationally) but significantly more (22.6%) on food away from home ($4,826 vs $3,936, fourth nationally).
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#GoldenStat(e): We eat how much? We may not know how much of it we actually eat, but CA spent $8,229 per capita on food in 2025 according to the @USDA_ERS Food Expenditure Series. That’s 15.4% more than the national average ($7,132 per capita) and 6th highest nationally.
Screenshot of USDA ERS interactive
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
If you have suggestions for crucial stats that will send us back to school, please send them our way. DOF data here: dof.ca.gov/forecasting/... Sign up for SITN here: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
dof.ca.gov
Projections | California Department of Finance
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
After a post-COVID-19 rebound, we see historical and forecast data showing an approximate net-100,000 age 18 residents entering the state consistently into the future, offsetting declines somewhat.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Not only an issue for K-12 enrollment – HS grads peaked in 23-24, presented below with DOF forecasts by age. Seniors and Grads declines by over 100k over the forecast, suggesting lower future college enrollment and/or workforce entrants.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Data is broken out by year and by county w hist data through the 24-25 school year and forecasts through 46-47. CA is projected to lose almost 1.5M in enrollment over these 40 years, over half of the declines in LA w/ Orange, San Diego, and San Bernardino seeing most of the rest
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#GoldenStat(e): Growing up to shrinking enrollment CA K12 system today may be the largest we will see again, despite 8% decline over last 2 decades. CA DOF projects the decline will increase another 10% over the next decade, primarily driven by an ongoing decline in births #CALeg
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Read the whole thing: devinlavelle.substack.com/p/the-golden... Then subscribe to Studies in the News: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
devinlavelle.substack.com
The Golden Stat(e): Working on workforce data
With Labor Day coming up, who would want to spend their long weekend doing anything but looking at stats on organized labor?
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This week's #TheGoldenStat(e) provides a review of union membership data in California. Public membership rose from 1983, peaking in 2012 while private membership has declined throughout the period covered by the data.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
*Correction* The data provided was correct, but it Gemini omitted a number of districts (~10%) that should have been included in the top 200. One of those districts maintains a September start date. Here's an updated chart with data added for 2006-07, which covers the major jump in start dates.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Find @NOAA LCD data here: www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan... Read the full post here: devinlavelle.substack.com/p/the-data-d... Subscribe to SITN here: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Here is how the typical temperature has varied across the year, peaking at the end of July and early August. Notably, the decline is steeper in the cooling months and more gradual in the warming months.
Line chart showing the average temperature in Sacramento on each day of the year.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
#GoldenStat(e): The data doesn’t lie, it’s hot! Downside of writing in advance, forecasts change. Instead of publishing this after a forecasted heat wave, in Sacramento we're on track for a relatively cool summer with, so far 9 days of 100+, compared to an average of 15.
Area chart showing the distribution of daily high temperatures from 1986 to 2025
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Check out the distribution
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Schedule data generated using AI.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The shift makes a big difference for high school kids, wrapping up the first semester before winter break, maximizing instruction before testing, and getting schedules more in line with summer jobs & programs and colleges.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
My kids went back to school today. When I was a kid we started after Labor Day. The shift in CA is real. 10 years ago, the median district started on August 17, now August 12. 10 districts started 8/29 or later in 16-17, this year 8/26 is the latest start.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Also interesting in today's SITN, a study from @UNC showing that expanding availability of big data is creating numerous studies with statistically significance that have little explanatory power, 50x less than in the 90s. @chicagoboothreview.bsky.social: www.chicagobooth.edu/review/how-b...
chicagobooth.edu
How Bigger Data Diminish the Value of Research to Business
The explanatory power of accounting research findings has declined enormously over the past 30 years.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
If you have suggestions for crucial stats that just need to be shared, please send them our way. Data: evictionlab.org/eviction-tra... Subscribe to SITN: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
evictionlab.org
Eviction Tracking System | Eviction Lab
Get up-to-date maps, charts and data on eviction filings in select cities and states.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
In addition to counts and trends, the Eviction Lab provides demographic estimates, finding that Black renters are significantly more likely to face eviction:
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
It notes: “The US govt does not collect eviction data & many state governments don’t either ... eviction records are housed w/i county court systems & can be very difficult to access ... states represented in the ETS ... have ... infrastructure that allow us to track evictions.”
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
#GoldenStat(e): @Princeton @evictionlab developed an Eviction Tracking System that provides monthly eviction data across 10 states and 37 cities. The tool does not include data from California. #CALeg @CAStateLibrary
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
If you have suggestions for crucial stats that should be invited to move in, please send them our way. Read on substack: devinlavelle.substack.com/p/the-golden... Subscribe to SITN: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/ Data: www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...
devinlavelle.substack.com
The Golden Stat(e): Your favorite homeownership rate is wrong
If you google “homeownership rate,” you will quickly find that 65.3% of Americans and 55.9% of Californians own their home.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Among Washington, D.C. and the 50 states, California ranks third from last in owner-occupancy rate at 55.9% (above New York and D.C.) and drops down a spot for HPOP at 41.2% (above D.C.). California’s difference between owner-occupancy rate and HPOP is the fifth largest.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The @MinneapolisFed released new data for this. HPOP focuses on 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 instead of homes, counting the homeowners in the numerator, only counting additional adults in the denominator. Under HPOP, the U.S. homeownership rate is 53.1%, a dif of 12.2% mostly due to adult children
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
In many cases, though, more adults besides the homeowners live in the home. This could be elderly parents, adult children, or adult roommates. Under existing data, all of those people would be effectively counted as homeowners.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The problem is that number is actually wrong. Not wrong exactly mislabeled. Most would understand the home ownership rate to represent the share of adults that own their 🏠 In reality, owner-occupied homes, represents the share of homes that are owned by one or more residents.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
If you @google “homeownership rate,” you will find 65.3% of US & 55.9% of CA own their home from countless credible sources such as the @uscensusbureau National Equity Atlas (@PolicyLink) @Wikipedia & (everyone’s favorite) FRED
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The #GoldenStat(e): Your favorite homeownership rate is wrong
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
bsky.app/profile/devi...
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Part of a special issue of Studies in the News by Alexa Duran, Cal-in-Sacramento Fellow (UC Berkeley), and Mike Stajura, Ph.D., researcher at the California Research Bureau. Read post here: open.substack.com/pub/devinlav... Subscribe to SITN here: www.library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
open.substack.com
The Golden Stat(e): Sunny CA officially leans on the sun more than gas
Part of a special issue by Alexa Duran, Cal-in-Sacramento Fellow (UC Berkeley), and Mike Stajura, Ph.D., researcher at the California Research Bureau.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The Golden Stat(e): Sunny CA officially leans on the sun more than gas Great news! Decades of work have culminated in an enviro milestone that the CA grid has recently met. According to the @EIAgov, util solar gen surpassed nat gas gen in CAISO over the first 5 mos of 2026.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Teen pregnancy: congress.gov/crs-product/... Overall Crime rates: disastercenter.com/crime/uscrim... Youth Crime indicators: aecf.org/blog/what-ju... Drug use: monitoringthefuture.org/data/bx-by/d... Drug arrests: ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the...
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
A lot of folks seem to be feeling nostalgic about raising kids in the 80s. Checking the data, we see this era of kids experienced things like increasing teen pregnancy, crime rates, and drug use. #TheMoreYouKnow #ItWasThe80sMan
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Read the whole post here: substack.com/home/post/p-... And click here to subscribe to Studies in the News from the California Research Bureau (@castatelibrary.bsky.social ): library.ca.gov/mailing-lists/
substack.com
Golden Stat(e): How do you quantify a trip to the park?
Summertime has come to California, and what better to do with our long days and beautiful evenings than head to a local park?
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Check out the latest Golden Stat(e) on a topic near and dear to my hear, California's parks! Featuring data from @tpl_org @City_of_Irvine scores the highest, while @lacity.bsky.social brings up the rear.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
CRB Minimum Wage Interactive: public.tableau.com/app/profile/... CRB Quick Hit on previous update: www.library.ca.gov/crb/quick-hi... CA CPI from @CA_DIR: www.dir.ca.gov/oprl/caprice...
public.tableau.com
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Based on CA-CPI, California’s minimum wage workers have modestly less purchasing power today than at their peak in 1968. Read more background (from the January update) at CRB Quick Hits.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The California Research Bureau has updated its Minimum Wage Interactive detailing the evolution of California’s state and local minimum wages over time, including customizable adjustments for inflation.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Emeryville increased to $20.34, making it the highest general minimum wage locality in the state. San Francisco and Berkeley also moved into a tie for 4th highest at $19.61.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
While the CA min wage and most local min wages update automatically on 1/1, 11 localities, including some of the largest (totaling 6M+), instead update on 7/1. Los Angeles City ($18.42) and unincorporated Los Angeles County ($18.47) saw increases.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The #GoldenStat(e): It’s July 1! (posted late) Did you get a raise? Maybe not. Sorry, we should not get you too excited. Many Californians did get a raise today, though. 🧵
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Article by Sumeet Bedi Links: @OEHHA Extreme Heat Summary: oehha.ca.gov/climate-chan... Interactive tool: experience.arcgis.com/experience/7... CalHeatScore details: calheatscore.calepa.ca.gov
oehha.ca.gov
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
As summer blazes on, an important reminder to keep informed about the weather and stay hydrated! If you have suggestions for hot stats that can keep us all cool, please send them our way.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The CalHeatScore tool, which is updated daily, gives you a snapshot of heat risk for each zip code in the coming week, as well as details on the demographics and vulnerabilities for each area’s population. The interactive also highlights the location of cooling centers across CA
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
CalHeatScore has five defined impact levels, ranging from “CHS 0” (a low level of heat-related health impact) to “CHS 4” (an extreme heat day with severe impact).
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
To that end, @OEHHA, @CaliforniaEPA, developed the California Communities Extreme Heat Scoring System, also known as CalHeatScore in 2024. CalHeatScore uses historical data and weather modeling to rank the level of human health risk from extreme heat in the state.
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Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
#GoldenStat(e): Tracking the dog days of summer Sun marked the start of summer. At top of mind is...extreme heat. Data shows the # of extreme heat events in CA has steadily grown, both day and night. SF saw 98 nights w extreme heat in 14 – prior to 00, the high was 48 in 58
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