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Deniz Selman

@denizselman33.bsky.social
2.8K followers 52 following 1.5K posts
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 7h
It's only been 4 games so there will surely be reversion, but here's a look at the 192 offenses since 2021 in success rate on dropbacks with and without play action. Even if we just look at the first 4 weeks of each season, 2026 #Eagles rank 190th of 192 teams with play action.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 7h
#Eagles Offense is now 31st in success rate when blitzed. Other than the last two desperation plays (3rd & 17, 4th & 25), the Rams blitzed the Eagles on every single late down dropback: the Eagles converted 1/11 of these plays.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 8h
The #Eagles have the worst under center offense in the NFL.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 8h
Third quarter offense has been...an issue. #Eagles
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 8h
Yes, the #Eagles are laughably bad at play action.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 9h
#Eagles Offense Success Rates 52% (11/21) on early down passes ⬅️⬅️⬅️ 35% (8/23) on early down runs —— 8% (1/13) on late down passes 0% (0/4) on late down runs
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 9h
#Eagles offense had: 3rd & 6 3rd & 1 3rd & 2 3rd & 14 3rd & 9 3rd & 5 3rd & 10 3rd & 5 3rd & 4 3rd & 2 3rd & 4 3rd & 17 Went 0/12, and just 1/4 on 4th down. They did convert 11 first downs on early downs, including 7 times passing. “Staying on schedule” is for losers.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 10h
#Eagles game by game advanced stats thru Week 4.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
With the #Eagles' injuries to key skill guys and the Rams possibly having to test their depth at edge, it may not be a bad day to have Jalen be a consistent threat in the run game. So far this year, there have only been a handful of true read runs, and only 1 keeper.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Jalen Hurts non-sneak designed runs Runs/Game, EPA/rush, Success Rate 2021 : 4.3, +.32, 64% 2022 : 4.6, +.27, 57% 2023 : 3.4, -.09, 46% 2024 : 3.5, +.01, 53% 2025 : 1.6, +.18, 54% 2026 : 0.3, -.66, 0% <- 1 run so far this season #Eagles
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Swooper! @ej-smith.bsky.social gets aggressive trying to get on the board against @bowulf.bsky.social & @fduffy.bsky.social by spending 44 turkeys, including possibly the greatest 9 turkeys spent in Swooper history with his purchase of the sacred Duffy Driver's Seat.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
#Eagles will dress just 3 ILBs and 3 safeties (including Kenny Moore who has never played safety) against the Rams tomorrow...but no cause for concern, there are 4 quarterbacks all healthy and ready to go!
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Game day depth charts and advanced team stats going into #Rams - #Eagles.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Whether halftime adjustments are a real thing or not in the NFL, the #Eagles aren't making them on offense. Through 3 weeks, the Eagles' 3rd quarter offense is the worst in the league. They have won the toss & deferred in all 3 games, then started each 2nd half with a 3 & out.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#Eagles passing game had a different look against Chicago--the most aggressive defense they've faced this season--with far fewer hitches and far more crossers than we've seen in the recent past. The 11.5% hitch rate was Eagles' lowest in any game since 2021 Week 10 @ DEN.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
#Eagles player and personnel grouping snap counts through Week 3.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
On 1,569 pass defense snaps as #Eagles DC, Vic Fangio has sent an outside CB to pass rush exactly 2 times. Both were last night. Case Keenum completed passes of 13 & 22 yards. See thread for video 2 Vic seems desperate to generate pressure this year--the guys getting paid to do it haven't done so.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"The food at this place is really terrible...and such small portions!" #Eagles have run the fewest under center play action plays in the NFL through 3 weeks, and have been terrible at it when they have, with a league-low 25% success rate.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
#Eagles have been awful both using and defending play action... Success Rate on Play Action Plays Offense : 25.0% (32nd) Defense : 65.4% allowed (29th)
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Worst Offensive EPA/Drive under Nick Sirianni (over 98 games, regular season & playoffs) -2.14, 2023 Wk 14 @ DAL (L 13-33) -1.70, 2022 Wk 17 vs NO (L 10-20) -1.68, 2026 Wk 3 @ CHI (L 7-27) ⬅️
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
#Eagles game by game advanced stats through Week 3.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Game day depth charts. #Eagles
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Swooper! A historically low-scoring start to the season has @ej-smith.bsky.social looking for the win Monday night to try and tie @bowulf.bsky.social and @fduffy.bsky.social.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
If all games were coin flips, #Phillies chances of making the playoffs were/are... 99.7% after Tuesday 98.0% after Wednesday 89.1% after Thursday 68.8% after Friday
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#Eagles Offense Success Rates Under Center Designed Runs (27) : 30.0% (28th) Dropbacks (12) : 25.0% (31st) Overall : 27.9% (32nd) Shotgun/Pistol Designed Runs (21) : 36.4% (16th) Dropbacks (63) : 44.4% (13th) Overall : 41.9% (15th)
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
After two weeks, the #Eagles are exactly league average on both sides of the ball by EPA/Drive, each side having played two nearly identically average games. As we know, stacking wins while improving is what it's all about in September. Eagles have been elite at this for years.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#Eagles haven't used much play action on first downs--and when they have, they have the lowest success rate in NFL. Looking at all downs, passing game has been average in success rate without play action, but dead last with it. (I expect the PA game to improve with some time!)
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The #Eagles passing game showed a lot of promising signs on Sunday, but one area that still needs improvement is generating yards after catch. Eagles are 31st in YAC/completion, which is exactly where they were over the entire 2025 season. (See 2025 chart in thread.)
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Eagles have been in 2nd & 8+ to go 24 times in the first two games, and are 27th in success rate on such plays: 2/17 (12%) success rate on 2nd & 8+ pass plays 2/7 (29%) success rate on 2nd & 8+ run plays The result is that they've already faced an NFL-high 22 snaps of 3rd & 6+.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Eagles offense is remarkably 14th in series conversion rate (how often a team moves the sticks or scores on a set of downs), despite needing late downs more than any other team. This chart shows the breakdown of conversions by down.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Eagles ran under center play action on 7 plays in Tennessee, the highest number in Jalen Hurts' career. Hurts was 3/7 for 27 yards, with a 2/7 (29%) success rate on these plays. Eagles have 4th fewest UC PA plays/game--and the 3rd lowest success rate on them--in the league.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Since many of you asked: #Eagles ran another 39 hitches (20% of all routes) on 42 dropbacks in Tennessee and are now tied for the highest hitch rate (and third lowest rate of crossers) in the NFL. But remember: not all hitches are bad! There was a lot to like in the passing game.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Eagles offense has been awful on 1st down (both run and pass), and has failed to move the sticks before 3rd down at a higher rate than any other offense. Late down heroics have them at 2-0, but this pattern does not seem sustainable.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Second week in a row that the #Eagles offense does just enough to win--with the passing game overcoming an underperforming run game (and the insistence on running way too much on early downs).
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
#Eagles player and personnel grouping snap counts through Week 2.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Depth charts for #Eagles @ Titans.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Swooper! @fduffy.bsky.social with the early season lead, which he will try to extend over @bowulf.bsky.social and @ej-smith.bsky.social in an oddly frugal Week 2.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I love Vic Fangio, but if I had to choose something I haven't gotten about him, it's his approach to short yardage. This is 4th & 1. Look at the DL alignment! No 1-T on either side (and JD goes backdoor wide of the tackle). LG free to the LB, easy 4 yards on 4th & 1. #Eagles
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Jalen Hurts had an NFL-high 33% non-target rate in Week 1: 11 non-targets (5 scrambles, 3 throwaways, 3 sacks) on 33 dropbacks. Watching the film, he carried the offense (4 scrambles were nice gains, sacks not his fault) despite major protection issues which nullified the script.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
For those wondering, the #Eagles were among the teams that let the play clock run low the most often in Week 1, almost exactly matching their average rates from last season, when they did this far more than any other team. Something to keep track of as the sample size grows.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Daronte Jones threw sim pressures at #Eagles in addition to blitzes, but FWIW Eagles only ran 120 total routes on 31 dropbacks (<4 per play), keeping RB and at times TE in to protect far more than in the past. We will see in future weeks if this continues to mask a beat-up OL.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It's only one game (and against an unconventional defense), but the #Eagles ran the second highest frequency of hitch routes of the 30 teams who have played so far, finding themselves in a familiar part of this graph.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Looking through the offensive efficiency metrics...it's crazy the #Eagles won converting just 10 first downs all game.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It's very funny that after all the offseason talk of under center play action, the #Eagles ran the fewest under center play action plays (2) of any of the 30 teams to play so far. The two plays were the first play of the game (incomplete to Saquon) and the 64 yarder to Tay Wicks.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
After Week 1 Sunday, #Eagles are tied for the NFL lead in 3 & out rate (which they also led last year)--but tied with the team they just beat, at least.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
#Eagles snap counts and personnel groupings from Week 1.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
#Eagles got it done with a handful of big plays on offense, but the success rate and series conversion rate numbers looked awful ugly in Week 1.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
A real game! #Eagles
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Swooper! @fduffy.bsky.social and @ej-smith.bsky.social are in search of their first titles, while @bowulf.bsky.social begins his threepeat campaign quietly, saving his turkeys for a marathon season.
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Deniz Selman @denizselman33.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Yes! Very happy to be back on the PHLY Eagles show on Fridays this season, along with the great @brandonleegowton.bsky.social! (Will also be on for a special Wednesday appearance tomorrow along with the great @fduffy.bsky.social!)
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