Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 2hI am going to eat my words as I was wrong, it seems that the Russian government within 24 hours has indeed partially lifted the ban on the export of diesel for 500 000 tons effective from October 10th 2026. 56410
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak who curates the country's energy sector said that Russia will now move to immediately lift the restrictions on diesel exports. 3381
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026According to Verstka Rosneft has started looking for crews for air defense systems at its refineries. Their Kuibyshev Refinery has posted job ads for the crews of Shilkas and BMP-2s to be used as air defense at the site with the option to get over 250 000 rubles a month. 6546
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Secondly there's now a register of datacenters in Russia kept by the Ministry of digital development with strict requirements and only these can be used as the backbone of cloud architecture used by Russian companies for their core work essentially. 1403
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Some things about Russia's datacenters and the ability of Russian companies to just rent cloud services abroad. Technology wise and physically quite possible however under Russian law there are significant hurdles, primary processing has to be INSIDE RUSSIA. 25813
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Yandex can't confirm if it can repair the equipment destroyed by Ukraine in the strike on its datacenter in Sasovo. 28412
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026In Russia the price of wheat used for feed production dropped to 5-6 000 rubles per ton without VAT which is the level it was at in 2018. The share of such grain in the total produced is 45-55% and over the last 2 years sowing areas have decreased by 1,8 million hectares. 2648
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Russia's large real estate developers lack the funds to finish 59% of their projects. 55% of the buildings they are constructing don't have enough money to even cover the construction of the building's foundations. 1012617
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 07/10/2026The total loss of the Russian grain industry is being estimated at almost 1 trillion rubles so far. The southern regions are at a loss of 7 - 8 000 rubles per ton for a total of 630-740 billion rubles. The Volga at 3-4 000 rubles per ton for a total of 180-240 billion rubles. 610916
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Some crazy news about the Russian military and Russian courts. A court in Abakan upheld a contract to sign up for the Russian military even though it found that the signature was forged basing its decision that the person in question didn't appeal in time. Still crazy. 29416
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026In Russia winter sowing by farmers has decreased by 1 million hectares already due to the unprofitably of the 2026 harvest. This means a 10-12% decrease in the harvest in 2027. 47911
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Russian export of sunflower seeds oil practically stopped in September 2026 with the country exporting just 5 000 tons vs 200 000 tons in September 2025. This is due to Ukrainian attacks on shipping in the Black Sea. Russian primarily exports this type of oil. 17611
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 04/10/2026For those who don't think Russia's turning into a death cult devoted to the war. The additional federal aid to fight cancer will be cut from 1,73 billion USD in 2026 to 45 million USD in 2027. Moreover they only spent 0,5 out the 1,74 billion USD earmarked for 2026... 59918
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 04/10/2026After the 2000s Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine adopted different systems for grading wheat so it's a bit divergent now: 150
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The first 2 paragraphs primarily talk about 3rd grade wheat, only the last one talks about 4th grade. Here's the price in in rubles of 3rd grade wheat over the last 6 months. There is no shortage whatsoever of it in Russia. Production costs in Southern Russia are 10-12 000 rubles. 2121
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 02/10/2026New lowest figure I have seen for the purchase of wheat directly from Russian farmers. In the northern parts of Rostov they are selling at 3 000 rubles per ton. That's between 25-30% of the production cost for the 2026 harvest. 18310
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The Russian Grain Union released its preliminary data for September 2026 saying Russian grain exports decreased by 74% to almost 1,7 million tons. Wheat dropped from 5,4 million tons to 1,36 million tons. Barley from 769 000 tons to 215 500 tons. 38714
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026The gas station's paperwork claims that the fuel was Euro-5 standard but it did a nasty trick on both foreign modern cars and on modern Ladas which are designed to run with Euro-5 fuel as that's what their engine is rated for. Repairs cost 100-200 000 rubles per car. 2403
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026In Chelyabinsk the independent gas station chain Tatoil is having to pay compensation for selling low quality fuel with additives that led to the valves of the engines getting stuck and hitting the pistons. About 1 500 cars were refueled with the poor quality fuel. 37113
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Updated data from @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social on the decrease in the shipping of crude oil by Russian railways. This looks to be close to the worst year in recent memory. 37017
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Mongolian authorities seem realistic in their estimates how long fuel deliveries from Russia will be disrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes by saying it could be 2-3 years. 28318
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Mongolians are protesting against the shortage of fuel in the country. 95% of the country's fuel used to come from Russian at below market prices. Essentially Russia was subsidizing the Central Asian countries. 2528
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Russian businesses' voluntary contributions to the Russian budget for 2026 will be 471 billion rubles. 2293
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Russian domestic prices for wheat in the area called the Black Earth and in the Volga have reached the bottom and in the South the continue to fall. The prices have fallen to 2018 levels but should drop further to 2013 levels. 45912
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The only debt auction for today that the Russian MinFin held was cancelled because of a lack of acceptable bids. Last yields got to 16,44%. I dare not imagine what was considered unacceptable. 46912
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Russia has extended its diesel fuel export ban till the end of October 2026. 1555
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Russia's largest real estate developer by square meters of housing being built SAMOLET has defaulted on its bonds today. It paid only 269,1 rubles out of the 1000 ruble coupon for its bonds. The company claims on the following day it paid in full. 510421
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Russian predictions are that by November the price of 3rd class wheat in Russia will drop to under 7500 rubles and there will be mass bankruptcies. The given government intervention seems to slightly larger than the increased carryover grain this year vs last year. 67513
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Putin signed a decree transferring the Russian assets of Metro to external management by the company UK Torg RUS, a company registered 20 days ago. This means there is no longer a Russian division of Metro it was seized. 15313
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Rostov's sunflower oil producing enterprises might close down because ships are not allowed to pass through the Kerch strait. This is because it's uneconomical to move the byproduct sunflower meal via railway. Without anywhere to put the excess meal they will have to shut down. 1493
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Russia's Krasnodar krai is introducing additional support measures offering 5 billion rubles on top of the 6 billion rubles already spent on direct aid to farmers. They will also have SME loans for up to 5 million rubles at 0,1% interest. This is all because the ports are closed. 1486
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 25/09/2026So the Russian Ministry of Agriculture sent a letter to the Ministry of Economic Development asking for a 12 month moratorium on bankruptcy for farmers and the Ministry of Economic Development seems to have said no, this doesn't sound serious enough. What a shitshow. 26011
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Russia's Krasnodar krai has declared an emergency due to the region's inability to export the harvest due the suspension of the work of the ports in the Azov and Black Sea basin and damage to logistics from the Ukrainian drones. Rostov oblast did this earlier. 18316
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Russia's second largest bank VTB says that the partnership deal with Wildberries was delayed due to the Ukrainian drone attacks and now is supposed to happen in the next month. It was already once postponed from August 2026 to September 2026. 1426
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026The Russian Central Bank is reporting that there are difficulties for online marketplace sellers when attempting to restructure their bank loans after they lost goods in drone attacks. The way they are describing online marketplaces are not providing them with documents. 2414
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026We again did a breakdown on the data for Russian road traffic accidents for August 2026 and compared it to August 2025. The results continue to confirm that Russian long distance travel by car suffered significantly. 47210
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Russian authorities in Zabaikalsky krai brought back the 15 liter refueling limits per car because the shortage after the Duma elections again intensified. 2577
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I did an analysis of Russian and Ukrainian grain export data for the 2026-2027 season. When comparing to the prior 2025-2026 grain export season Ukraine's grain exports decreased noticeably but Russian grain exports outright collapsed. 28622
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026n Kaluga region they are reintroducing limits on refueling for odd and even days based on the license number of the vehicle. 1503
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The Russian Central Bank has held today the largest repo auction for banks in its history. 7 trillion rubles. When the weekly repos started they were supposed to be temporary things, now it's something the banking sector can't do without. Liquidity is definitely a problem. 38312
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Comparison of grain exports in September by Ukraine and Russia rounded to the nearest 1000 tons. Russian data is for September 1st to 20th, Ukrainian is for September 1st to the 18th. 3726
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Russian wheat exports for the period 11-20th of September 2026 decreased by 73% year over to 347 000 tons. Barley exports decreased by 90% to 21 900 tons and cord by 70% to 11 800 tons. Wheat exports for September are now expected to be around 1 million tons. 67913
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 21/09/2026An expected decision from Russia's Ministry of Agriculture. The export duties on grain have been lowered to 0 till the rest of 2026. The export duties on sunflower oil and sunflower meal will be 7 748 and 312 rubles per ton respectively. 2472
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Earlier today Lukashenko said that all of Belarus' surplus of potash for export has already been contracted for export. There's no available volumes to export for Western countries. I think it's important to post this today. 1329787
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 21/09/2026The governor of Stavropol said that gasoline supplies will normalize in October. I wouldn't make statements like this when Ukrainian major attacks on Russian refineries continue. 2497
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Here's a graph how much the Russian 9,7 billion railway subsidy will cover if Russian surplus grain from the south is redirected entirely to one possible export direction. However you slice it is nowhere near enough to support Russia's 3 main grain regions. 1647
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Here's a translated infographic on just the base transportation costs for Russian wheat from the main southern wheat producing regions. Only the Caspian seems like a viable profitable option as these are prices without VAT and without all railway shipping costs. 26012
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 20/09/2026The Russian EXW grain index for class 3 wheat. The graph shows it dropping below the cost of produce at 9 000 rubles or around 107 USD per ton. 110014
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Over last night 450 flights were canceled or delayed at Moscow airports due to the Ukrainian drone attacks. 1698
Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Russians have started doing pet vaccine tourism to Belarus to get western vaccines and medication that are no longer imported in Russia. The wait time is now 3 months. One additional factor is that a Russian produced vaccine recently killed over 300 dogs due to a virus in it. 47118
