Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #6: "Iran may no longer be able to threaten the Strait of Hormuz “in a week or two.”" Verification: by March 26, 2026, is Iran no longer meaningfully able to disrupt or threaten maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz? 000
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #5: A popular uprising is all but inevitable Verification: - widespread sustained protests across multiple cities - explicit anti-regime character - persistance over time 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #4: The regime is likely to become a “zombie state.” Verification: - loss of effective control over parts of the country - major additional fiscal collapse or breakdown in basic state functions - inability to suppress dissent consistently 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #3: “Before this war is over, we will find a way to remove Iran’s remaining stores of highly enriched uranium.” Verification: - has Iran’s remaining HEU stockpile been secured, removed, surrendered, or verifiably destroyed before the war is over? 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #2: “Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors diminishes by the day.” Verification: - is Iran still launching drones/missiles around 4/1/26 - are proxy attacks happening? - is shipping traffic freely moving through the Straight of Hormuz as of 4/1/26? 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Claim #1: "We are less than two weeks into a war that will almost surely be over by the end of the month" Verification: is the war over by March 31, 2026? Validation metrics: - cessation of U.S./Israeli airstrikes on Iran for one week following 3/31 - ceasefire or settlement - end of hostilities 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Bret Stephens seems particularly energized and out there in this #NYTimes op-ed discussion about the Iran war: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/o... The great news for Stephens haters is he makes a lot of verifiable claims, so why don't we keep track of how they go! :-)nytimes.comOpinion | ‘He Seems Really Bad at Getting Advice’: 3 Opinion Writers on Trump and Iran 110
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 29/12/2025Clouds are fantastic right now. These ones are being illuminated from below by reflection off the Potomac @capitalweather.bsky.social 0353
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 10/12/2025These ads are crazy. I get the one with the red sweater of a bearded bespeckled yelling man on the front. No thanks! Not in the market for insane knittables! 000
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 05/11/2025The totally apparent direction of flow on the cliff face is awesome 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 09/07/2025A warning system for this part of the Guadalupe River would have cost about a million dollars. Those 100+ lives were not worth $1M dollars to these politicians. abcnews.go.com/US/flood-pro...abcnews.go.com'We are very flood prone': Local Texas officials spent years discussing potential warning systemFlooding has been at the top of Texans’ minds this week, but this is not the first time that the need for flood-related measures has come up among local officials. 010
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 08/07/2025"Crying wolf" - what an incredibly sad mentality. 100 lives apparently not worth some inconvenience to some people. 000
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 03/07/2025These facilities are terrible, and they're also not at all appropriate for "housing" the homeless population. 010
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 30/06/2025Literally the worst time possible for this to happen as the Senate considers killing the industry www.yahoo.com/news/1-hurt-...yahoo.com1 hurt in windmill blade incident on Maryland highwayA windmill turbine blade became loose Monday morning, crossing the median on Interstate 70 in Maryland and causing traffic to be backed up for several miles. 020
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 24/06/2025It's not clear to me at the moment how this conflict gets to the point of needing to draft soldiers. How does that work as best you can imagine it? 110
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Please please please Books That Kill this book. I have thoroughly hated every interview I've heard with them. 010
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 03/06/2025Cool to see the surface layer highlighted so clearly, although the last thing we need are more surface-level smoke particles. View from Silver Spring MD looking south toward D.C. panning from west to east. 010
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 28/04/2025This is so excellent "He does not look strong and soft to me here, he looks like he may struggle with a supply chain collapse, and we probably won’t cuddle all that much." 020
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 20/04/2025He's a thick Boi and it's hard to redirect all that mass in a circle after rounding second 050
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 06/04/2025Are there any laws even covering passenger vehicle modifications these days? I just see insane unsafe mods everywhere all the time. 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 31/03/2025I thought Florida and Texas were supposed to be God's gift to capitalism and markets? They're barely different from NY, which is supposedly falling apart. 010
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 21/03/2025That song rocks so hard that my Millenial Weezer cover band has done in in the encore 060
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Seems like it generally goes to 0 exports in the first quarter of the year? 020
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 13/03/2025Yeah, is there anything whatsoever that distinguishes them from other airlines at this point? 100
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 07/03/2025Ordering a wellness check for the guy in the NY Times ad who said "Wordle makes me feel things that I don't feel from anyone else" 000
Reposted by Dan BarrieAndrew D Thaler @drandrewthaler.bsky.social · 01/03/2025I worry that the focus on NOAA's weather predicting value is ignoring the millions of other ways NOAA researchers enrich communities and local economies. There are no oysters without NOAA. There are no blue crabs without NOAA. NOAA trains teachers. NOAA is the lifeblood of coastal communities. 3556021896
Dan Barrie @dbb.bsky.social · 28/02/2025You are a wonderful person, scientist, and communicator, and I am beyond sad to lose you as a colleague for now. Sending lots of love and compassion. I appreciate you. 230