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David Molitor

@davidmolitor.bsky.social
32 followers 0 following 11 posts

Economist and Associate Professor at Illinois Gies College of Business. davidmolitor.com

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Reposted by David Molitor
Standard Error Research Editors @standarderror.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
We were delighted to select and present the Best Paper Prize for the 2nd time at the @cinchessen.bsky.social Economics of Mental Health Workshop, this year at @univdauphine.bsky.social to prizewinner Alden Chang for research with Martin Hackmann 1/9 stderr-editors.com/blog/cheng-a...
stderr-editors.com
Cheng and Hackmann receive mental health economics workshop Best Paper Prize for research on mortality effects of nursing home room assignments
The prize recognizes the authors’ outstanding empirical work and the direct applicability of their findings for improving patients’ health outcomes.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
10/ Bottom line: Federal drinking water investments pass a cost-benefit test by a wide margin. This is useful to know as policymakers debate infrastructure spending. Paper: davidmolitor.com/s/DrinkingWa... Paper also has much more on pollution trends, causes: bsky.app/profile/did:...
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
9/ Caveats: We measure mortality for ages 65+; effects on younger ages are imprecise in county data that is not linked to specific systems. We don't observe cause of death in Medicare. Benefits likely extend beyond mortality. Our estimates are probably a lower bound.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
8/ We find these loans have large benefits to costs: The mean loan: • $7.4 million total cost (capital + O&M over 25 years) • ~57 premature deaths prevented • Benefit/cost ratio: 22.7 Cost per premature death avoided: $130,000—well below standard VSL estimates.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
7/ The gradual timing is consistent with the chronic diseases (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular, kidney) mostly commonly linked to drinking water pollution. These diseases develop over years. We see larger effects 5–10 years post-loan than 1–2 years post-loan.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
6/ What we find: Pre-loan: Parallel trends in mortality between recipient and non-recipient systems Post-loan: Mortality gradually declines in recipient communities Effect size: ~0.5% reduction in mortality relative to baseline
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
5/ Research design: Stacked cohort approach. We track individuals based on where they lived 5 years before their water system received a loan. This addresses concerns about demographic changes driving both loans and health trends.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
4/ We use Medicare administrative records with 9-digit ZIP codes—roughly Census block level and about 200 times more precise than 5-digit ZIPs. This lets us match each beneficiary to their drinking water system with precision.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
3/ Challenge: Geography. The average U.S. county has 50+ separate water systems. County-level analysis is too coarse. We obtained service territory maps letting us link each water system to specific areas it serves.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
2/ We study 9,200 federal loans to drinking water systems through the Safe Drinking Water Act, worth $36 billion. These loans fund treatment plants, pipes, storage—capital investments to reduce pollution. Key question: Do they actually improve health?
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
1/ Drinking water pollution has been linked to cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, stroke, and more. But causal evidence on policy → health is scarce. Most studies focus on infants, disasters like Flint, or lack the precision to match exposure to outcomes.
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David Molitor @davidmolitor.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Does cleaning up drinking water save lives? New paper: We link US federal drinking water investments to Medicare records and find they reduce mortality among older Americans, with benefit/cost ratio>20. Thread on what we did... w/ Keiser, @bhashmazumder.bsky.social , @joseph-s-shapiro.bsky.social
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Reposted by David Molitor
Joseph Shapiro @joseph-s-shapiro.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
💧New Paper Water Works: Causes and Consequences of Safe Drinking Water in America 📉US drinking water pollution fell by HALF in 2003-2019 💰Safe Drinking Water Act $ helped ❤️Investments reduce mortality, benefit/cost ratio >20 www.nber.org/papers/w35288 👇
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