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Davide Usula

@davideusula.bsky.social

114 followers 346 following 14 posts

Sardinian. Interested in (macro) labor, income distribution, industry dynamics and sometimes soccer and books. Ph.D. economics student @SantAnnaPisa

Posts Replies Media

Davide Usula @davideusula.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Robustness ⚠️ 1️⃣Alternative measures (CPI, PCE) & detrending (CF filter) 2️⃣Discrete Wavelet Regression showing a coefficient reversal at cyclical frequencies: from wage-led (1970s) to profit-led (post-2008) ✅A shift in the distributive transmission mechanism (11/14)

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Davide Usula @davideusula.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

The Mechanics ⚙️ Beyond "Greedflation" narrative (Weber & Wasner 2023), it is power asymmetry: 🥊 Wage-led: Workers fight to protect shares 🏄‍♂️ Profit-led: Firms win as prices hold while wages lag Price spirals effectively shift income shares (labor vs profit). 🌀 (10/14)

The diagram illustrates the mechanics of endogenous inflationary spirals driven by distributive conflict.

In a wage-led regime (S1), inflation is fueled by labor's attempt to recover income shares through bargaining power: rising nominal wages push prices in a catch-up cycle.

Conversely, in the profit-led regime (S2), the mechanism centers on firms' power asymmetry. Rising markups are not strictly necessary to trigger inflation: it is sufficient for firms to maintain stable margins in the face of shocks (or productivity growth) while wages stagnate (wage lag).

In this configuration, inflation acts as a shield for profits: by translating costs into prices while slowing down wage adjustments, the system operates a forced redistribution that compresses the labor share in favor of profit share. The spiral thus becomes the release valve for incompatible income claims.

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Davide Usula @davideusula.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Theory 💡: we build a 3-dimensional predator-prey model to formalize this tug-of-war between wages & profits. Inflation is an emergent property of these nonlinear feedback loops. Bargaining power determines if the system flips into wage–price or profit–price spirals. 🌀 (6/14)

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Davide Usula @davideusula.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Empirical findings 📊 1️⃣ 70s (Wage-led): Strong labor. Wages lead prices. Spirals🥊 2️⃣ Great Moderation: Decoupling. Structural shifts break the link 📉 3️⃣ Today (Profit-led): Profits lead, real wages lag. Squeeze🔄 Same inflation, different distributive engine. (4/14)

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Davide Usula @davideusula.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

NEW WP 🚨 "Regimes of distributive conflict and inflation spirals" w/ G. Dosi & M.E. Virgillito How do distribution & prices co-evolve? 📉 Map wage/profit regimes in US Model bargaining & shifts ⚙️ Inflation emerges from income share conflict 🧵 davideusula.github.io/assets/pdf/d... (1/14)

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