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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial]

@davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy

127 followers 0 following 330 posts

A newsletter that mixes insights from the history of the digital future (#WIREDarchive) with observations and rants about the state of politics today […] 🌉 bridged from 🌐 davekarpf.substack.com: fed.brid.gy/web/davekarpf.substack.…

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 03/03/2026

davekarpf.substack.com

The Future Now and Then, now on Beehiiv

Same future, new web address

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 20/02/2026

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Yeah, so... Substack, I'm out.

The Polymarket partnership is the last straw.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 13/02/2026

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You Can't Make Me Vibecode

On the historical parallels between vibecoding and open source

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 10/02/2026

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We are all going to regret Kalshi and Polymarket.

Gambling should be like cigarettes: Legal but inaccessible.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 06/02/2026

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On Crypto Crashes and Fake Money

When the cryptocurrency ecosystem sheds $2 trillion, we should pause to notice where it went.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 15/01/2026

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What comes next, if Claude Code is as good as people say.

We know how this turns out. First comes the novelty, then comes the corrosion.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 06/01/2026

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The Long Shadow of January 6th

On the failure to hold power to account.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 29/12/2025

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The Future, Now and Then: 2025 in review

A look back, and a look forward

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 22/12/2025

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Some 2026 Predictions

I think we've made it past rock bottom?

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 13/12/2025

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On Hatereading as Method

Ridicule is our last, best weapon

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 09/12/2025

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The end of optimization

Some thoughts on a transition point in recent internet history,

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 18/11/2025

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Black Mirror is not a Pinterest board.

Part 1 in what I really hope doesn't become a series

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 12/11/2025

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Every generation gets to recreate the environmental movement to suit its own purposes

Some big-picture reactions to a recent NYT piece

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 10/11/2025

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The Shutdown Surrender

I just... I mean... Whatever.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 07/11/2025

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Bullet Points: November 7, 2025 edition

Money is fake, it's only accounting fraud if we have a functional administrative state, and taking stock of the past year.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 04/11/2025

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Bill Gates's stunted political vision

Bill Gates went full Lomborg. Never go full Lomborg.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 31/10/2025

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Dressing Up as James Carville for Halloween

My New Republic piece, discussing the "Deciding to Win" report.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 21/10/2025

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Here Lies Humanity, Dead by Fancy Autocomplete

Adam Becker and I discuss everything that annoyed us about Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 14/10/2025

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It's Giving Enron

On the AI bubble, and the various echoes of the dotcom crash

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 25/09/2025

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Bullet Points: A Few Good Reads

"Every Day, Computers Are Making People Easier to Use"

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 18/09/2025

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The Authoritarian Transition Is Arriving Ahead-of-Schedule

ThisIsFineDog.gif

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 11/09/2025

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On political violence and political pretext

Oh, to live in less-interesting times...

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 05/09/2025

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What *Isn't* Abundance?

The new idea is having a moment. And the people behind the idea are blowing their opportunity.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 05/09/2025

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Tesla's Roadmap to Nowhere

I'll give him this: Elon Musk has a solid grasp of futurity-as-PR.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 24/08/2025

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Bullet Points: Arguments about Arguments edition

(I sprained my ankle yesterday.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 19/08/2025

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What it's like being a political communication professor right now

Misgivings, Grievances, and Thanks as I look ahead to my fifteenth year.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 15/08/2025

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GPT5 and the end of naive AI futurism

Tech boosters have the memories of goldfish

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 05/08/2025

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The AI economy is full of financial gimmicks.

Tech journalists need to start moonlighting as finance journalists.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 25/07/2025

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Defusing the Depopulation Bomb

Book Review: "After the Spike" by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 18/07/2025

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Bullet Points: "We're in Danger" edition

Substack's new funding round, doubting Epstein drama amounts to much, and NYT columnists should shut up about Mamdani.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 16/07/2025

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Five things I believe about actually-existing AI today.

Here are five things that I believe to be true about generative Artificial Intelligence as it exists today.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 11/07/2025

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On Elon Musk and Sleazy Optionality

Is he serious about the America Party? it depends!

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 23/05/2025

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OpenAI has an unsubtle communications strategy.

The load-bearing relationships between futurity-vibes and finance

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 17/05/2025

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My 2025 SMPA Commencement Address

This is GWU’s commencement weekend.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 02/05/2025

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Mark Zuckerberg's Phantom-Friend-Future

Champagne for my real friends; real pain for my sham friends (amirite?)

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 01/05/2025

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Book Review: "More Everything Forever"

A book that takes Silicon Valley's unserious ideas seriously, and then delightfully tears them apart.

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 25/04/2025

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The Trump Administration is Coming for ActBlue.

File under: "will the United States continue to hold free and fair elections?"

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 22/04/2025

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"Abundance" is a book for an alternate timeline

There are many good ideas in Klein and Thompson's book, but no solutions to the crisis we now face.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 18/04/2025

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Welcome to the Resistance, Bret Stephens.

The elite opinion vibe shift is underway.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 15/04/2025

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How would an old school techno-optimist make sense of the Trump administration?

I just need to vent for a moment.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 13/03/2025

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Two Podcast Appearances and One Provocation

On mindless techbros and feckless Democratic Senators.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 10/03/2025

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On the Miraculous Tradition in Silicon Valley Thought

"And then a miracle happens" is not a plan.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 25/02/2025

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The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

Two of them are real. The third, notsomuch.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 16/02/2025

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The Tech Barons have a blueprint drawn in crayon. They have not thought any of this through.

A review of Balaji Srinivasan's book, The Network State.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 07/02/2025

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Bullet Points: Everything is Collapsing Edition

Plus, a few ideas about the role of ideas in Silicon Valley

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 02/02/2025

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Things are going even worse than I expected

On our unelected President Elon Musk, and mourning the loss of foreclosed potential futures.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 09/01/2025

davekarpf.substack.com

Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to free speech is as deep as Exxon's commitment to clean energy

Meta's policy commitments never last longer than an election cycle

The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 06/01/2025

davekarpf.substack.com

Someone Else's Problem

Ultimately, it just would have been too inconvenient to deal with the January 6th attack.

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 03/01/2025

davekarpf.substack.com

Bullet Points: 2025 is going great so far

Burning cybertrucks, Instagram AI bots, and debating exhausting people

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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack [Unofficial] @davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy · 31/12/2024

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The Future, Now and Then: 2024 in review

It was an eventful year. (derogatory)

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