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DanSmith1.bsky.social

@dansmith1.bsky.social
49 followers 33 following 55 posts

Visiting Professor, Nagasaki University. Non-resident Senior Fellow, UNIDIR. Ex head of Peace Research Institute, Oslo (1993-2001), International Alert (2003-2015) & SIPRI (2015-2025). Blogging at dansmithsblog.com

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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I am honoured and delighted to be appointed as a Visiting Professor at Nagasaki University, attached to the Research Centre for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA). recna.nagasaki-u.ac.jp/recna/en-top
recna.nagasaki-u.ac.jp
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Ed Miliband has finally shared the substance of a Joint Intelligence Committee report on how ecological disruption undermines security. My take on this encouraging moment: dansmithsblog.com/2026/09/24/e...
dansmithsblog.com
Ecological security: an important moment
The UN General Assembly high-level week is an uber talkfest, so it’s important to use the opportunity to say something important. While most of he media attention has been on some more rambli…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The tragedy of Sweden: it is sad how true this article is
theguardian.com
How Sweden lost its soul – and stopped being Sweden | Martin Gelin
In 2022 my country entered a new era of cruelty. It will take more than one election to get the old, tolerant Sweden back, writes Swedish journalist Martin Gelin
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A new concept has emerged to haunt us – the forever war. It reflects what many people feel about the bleak global horizon. And the wars it refers to are awful. But it's an idea that disables us. It says nothing can be done. And yet, nothing is forever.
dansmithsblog.com
Are ‘forever wars’ forever?
A new concept has emerged to haunt us – the forever war. It’s just one aspect of the bleak global picture today: more armed conflicts than at any time since the second World War; higher milit…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Democracy and peace are both at risk. But 30-plus years of high-level scholarly research shows democracy is a foundational asset for peace and security. New report shows how this works: file:///Users/dan/Downloads/JN_0189%20wfd-democracy-security-asset-global-evidence-review-2026-05%20AW%20(1).pdf
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
New US strikes on Iran. As I said a month ago, "All the signs seem to point towards the extended pain of an on-again, off-again war. With luck and/or wisdom, and maybe both, we can instead have a prolonged truce. With more luck and wisdom and a heap of patience, we could get a peace agreement."
dansmithsblog.com
War on Iran: on-again, off-again?
There are three current ceasefires in the Middle East.  One is between Israel and the USA on one side and Iran on the other; each side accuses the other of violating it.  One is between Israel and …
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
The #GulfCrisis is now in the space between peace and war. It may exit at any time into war – or, less likely and more slowly, to. a real peace. In the meantime, here is part 3 plus summary of my provisional assessment of gains and losses so far.
dansmithsblog.com
War in the Gulf: provisional balance sheet, part 3
Historians seem to expend a lot of time and energy arguing back and forth over many years on the balance of gains and losses in a war. The arguments tend to be plagued by uncertainties over data an…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
The Gulf crisis sits in a fragile but slowly expanding space between peace and war. Here is part 2 of my provisional assessment of who has gained and who has lost what so far.
dansmithsblog.com
War in the Gulf: provisional balance sheet, part 2
The question is whether any government has benefitted from the Gulf War that began on 28 February when Israel and the USA attacked Iran. How do the costs and benefits stack up politically? Whose na…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The Gulf crisis has entered the space between peace and war. It may exit at any time but I think this is a convenient moment to gauge what has been gained and what has been lost so far.
dansmithsblog.com
War in the Gulf: a provisional balance sheet
In the space between peace and war that the Gulf crisis has now entered, and from which it may exit at any point, if only for a brief time, maybe this is a convenient moment to think…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Reported terms of possible Iran-US agreement suggest it would, if it happens, 1 suspend the war rather than end it, 2 confirm Israel & USA achieved nothing 3 benefit Iran’s leaders. Point 3 encourages scepticism about its prospects . More detail in my latest blog post
dansmithsblog.com
War in the Gulf: Is it over? What’s the result?
There are reports in several outlets that Iran and the US are getting close to agreement on a memorandum to end the war. The reports are based, so it’s said, on leaks from the Pakistani team …
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Iran today: In between war and peace lie other options – prolonged truce, proxy warfare, and an on-again, off-again war. Which is most likely the war on Iran by the USA and Israel? My forecast:
dansmithsblog.com
War on Iran: on-again, off-again?
There are three current ceasefires in the Middle East.  One is between Israel and the USA on one side and Iran on the other; each side accuses the other of violating it.  One is between Israel and …
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I am delighted and excited to be appointed as Senior Fellow at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (@UNIDIR). Really looking forward to working together with this tremendous team. unidir.org
unidir.org
UNIDIR | Building a more secure world.
UNIDIR is an autonomous institution within the United Nations that conducts independent research on disarmament and international security issues.
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
The ceasefire in the US-Israeli war on Iran brings cautious relief. The bombing, the missiles, the destruction and the killing can stop, which is unreservedly good. But ceasefires are tricky things.
dansmithsblog.com
The war on Iran: from the ceasefire to the off-ramp?
The ceasefires brightest prospects appear to rest on the ability of the four mediating powers (Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye as well as Pakistan) to paint it as the off-ramp, down which Trump can…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Some pointers are emerging out of the fog created by the jumble of remarks by Trump and others. This is the first of 3 blog posts on them. Covers the US military build-up, the US search for a way out, and the Strait of Hormuz.
dansmithsblog.com
The war on Iran: signals emerging from the noise
Trying to make sense of the US-Israel war on Iran – 3 signals out of the noise: – the US military build-up is concerning but does not mean full scale invasion; – the off-ramp has gone missing; &#82…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Outcomes of the war on Iran are wholly uncertain. Could include anything from civil war to democratic transition, could destabilise the region, and by driving up oil prices provide the final unanswerable reasons for the green transition.
dansmithsblog.com
Attack on Iran: unclear motives, unknown outcomes & energy vulnerability
Outcomes from the war on Iran:
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
"This is a difficult time to be talking about disarmament or even arms control." But it's what I do in this article, linking it world order and ecological security.
tandfonline.com
The Nuclear Dilemma in a 360-Degree Context
In the context of the breakdown of nuclear arms control, the crisis of world order and the background of ecological disruption, this commentary discusses key aspects of a possible world order that ...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
So Trump has dropped his previous views about regime change. What are the prospects now?
dansmithsblog.com
Attack on Iran: Israel and the USA have flipped the coin – where and how will it land?
When the USSR invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, assassinated President Hafizullah Amin and installed a more compliant government, it kicked off an era of war and terror that has not ended 47 ye…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
My new article on 38 North explores the relevance of European experience to regional security in Northeast Asia. I argue it offers an interesting model—but only if that model is properly understood
38north.org
The Northeast Asian Security Dilemma: Does European Experience Show the Way Out? - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Faced by growing insecurity and destabilizing uncertainties, Northeast Asia lacks a regional ...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Every picture tells a story. Here's the logo of the Board of Peace Trump is in the process of announcing today. What story does it tell?
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Insecurity and ecological disruption are both era-defining challenges. Is it possible to balance them and do both? Could there be synergies? Summary of a longer report for the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research: Sustainable Defence in a Challenging Environment
dansmithsblog.com
Sustainable Defence in a Challenging Environment
For Europe, responding to insecurity and responding to ecological disruption are both era-defining challenges. In June last year, NATO decided to respond to the insecurity that member states and ma…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
A future seems to loom before in which the strong do what they can, and the weak do what they must. My reflections on the Caracas raid – background and implications. dansmithsblog.com/2026/01/05/r...
dansmithsblog.com
Reflections on Venezuela, Trump and world order
As the world knows, on 3 January 2026, in an operation involving over 150 aircraft, US Special Forces raided Caracas, seized President Maduro and his wife, and took them to New York to be charged a…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
This is a must-listen talk by Warren Buffet on the US National Security Strategy. His analysis: forget the silly insults, Trump just pressed the self-destruct button for US military industry and technological leadership. Fascinating! youtu.be/VSBXzK3Vf7o?... via @theserfstv.bsky.social
youtu.be
JUST IN: Trump Ends NATO — Europe’s $2 Trillion Alliance Leaves America Behind | Buffett Warns
YouTube video by Think Vest
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Events are showing that flaws in the peace plan for Gaza announced put it in serious danger of failing in the short term. Nothing is inevitable but the risk is clear. My 3rd assessment of the plan: dansmithsblog.com/2025/12/01/t...
dansmithsblog.com
The Gaza peace plan after 7 weeks: 3rd assessment
IT IS TWO MONTHS since the Gaza peace plan was announced (29 September). A few days later, Hamas gave its conditional acceptance of the deal (3 October). On 8 October, the negotiators agreed a ceas…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Can the Gaza peace plan work? My evaluation of it: dansmithsblog.com/2025/10/03/e...
dansmithsblog.com
Evaluating President Trump’s Gaza peace plan
The fate of the peace plan for Gaza announced at the White House on Monday is not yet decided. There has, of course, been considerable coverage of it in the news media. Some focusses on its prospec…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
For political leaders, the rush of events gets in the way of strategic vision. And getting in the way of responding to events - or at least just complicating things - are five major, simultaneous, global hinge points we now face.
dansmithsblog.com
Five global hinge points
Among those sayings that encapsulate political wisdom but are either inaccurate or apocryphal (such as the ancient Chinese curse, ‘May you live in interesting times’ that is neither Chinese nor anc…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Not that government of Israel will listen or read carefully but others must including European governments:
theguardian.com
Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, says UN commission of inquiry
Report cites scale of killings and aid blockages and accuses Benjamin Netanyahu of inciting commission of genocide
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
My newe chapter: dansmithconsulting.online
dansmithconsulting.online
Dan Smith Consulting
Feeding the global conversation on peace and security
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Change for me, change for SIPRI: dansmithsblog.com/2025/08/17/c...
dansmithsblog.com
Change for SIPRI and for me
Time for change. I am stepping down as Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) at the end of this month, having completed the two five-year terms that are the maxim…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
European leaders have failed badly over the Israel/US strikes on Iran. @sipri.org colleagues address the problem of an apparent acceptance of violations of international law.
sipri.org
Europe should help repair the damage to non-proliferation and international law from the attacks on Iran
European leaders’ responses to the recent Israeli and United States attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities have been striking for both their muted tone and their apparent acceptance of violations ...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
The BIG 5 per cent increase in NATO spending. A political signal with multiple impacts on international politics, prospects for peace, the economy, government finances, you name it. @sipri.org colleagues have run the figures and here's what they do (and don't) mean:
sipri.org
NATO’s new spending target: challenges and risks associated with a political signal
NATO’s new alliance-wide spending target of 5 per cent of GDP sends a strong political message, but at what cost?
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Governments of Somalia & UK have set up a High-Level Panel on Social Protection in Fragile & Conflict-Affected Settings. We need your input. Seven questions - up to you which ones you answer – at staar.socialprotection.org/high-level-p...
staar.socialprotection.org
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Excellent analysis of the trajectory of the relationship between North Korea and Russia by my @sipri.org colleague, Fei Su: www.apln.network/analysis/com...
apln.network
From Tactical To Strategic: The DPRK-Russia Military Cooperation | Asia-Pacific Leadership Network
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Former Israel PM Ehud Olmert in Harretz this week: "What we are doing in Gaza now is a war of devastation: the indiscriminate, limitless, cruel and criminal killing of civilians... Yes, Israel is committing war crimes." Incredibly important. First crack in the dam? www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025...
haaretz.com
Enough is enough. Israel is committing war crimes | Opinion
***
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Oh, look, 50-plus years on, a "secret plan to end the war".
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 08/01/2025
In a recent interview with @franciscocarrion.bsky.social (El Independiente), #SIPRI Director @dansmith1.bsky.social warns about the state of the world, highlighting nuclear tensions, climate challenges, and emerging technologies as critical threats. Read the full interview ⬇️ bit.ly/3DK7lAx
bit.ly
“El mundo vive el momento más peligroso del último medio siglo”
Entrevista con Dan Smith, director de Sipri, uno de los principales think tank del mundo en seguridad y conflictos
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Use 'em or lose 'em is not a principle any sane person should want to see applied to nuclear weapons. But who said, "I like to believe that people, in the long run, are going to do more to promote peace than our governments"?
dansmithsblog.com
The nuclear challenge today and tomorrow
On 6 and 9 August this year, we will mark the 80th anniversaries of the two occasions on which nuclear weapons have ever been used in war – the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.* Humanity has perpetrated and experienced a great deal of harm in the past eight decades but nuclear weapons have not been used again. Despite today's widespread and intensifying perception of nuclear risk, the nuclear taboo survives.
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Thank you @HughMuir(despite being seemingly BlueSky absent) for this. The question is, does the Tory press hate Sadiq Khan more because of his religion and ethnicity, or because he has succeeded in reducing air pollution in London? www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Arise Sir Sadiq Khan, and enjoy your knighthood. As for the Tories in a rage – ignore them | Hugh Muir
There’s a very rightwing furore over the London mayor’s appearance on the new year honours list. But if not him, who? asks Guardian writer Hugh Muir
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Every year the same magic. Five days in the west Swedish countryside. Five morning walks. Day 1 (27 Dec), high viz clothing essential. Same time on Day 5, not needed. Beauty of a few minutes more daylight each day.
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Reposted by DanSmith1.bsky.social
1.5 Degrees of Peace @1pt5degreesofpeace.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
#peace #climatejustice #endwars #humanitarian #worldpeace #love #health #sustainability #climate #nonukes #disarmament
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Reposted by DanSmith1.bsky.social
SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 06/12/2024
#SIPRI Director @dansmith1.bsky.social recently spoke with NHK World News about the pressing challenges of nuclear proliferation and shared insights on Nihon Hidankyo receiving the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. Watch the full interview here: www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/...
www3.nhk.or.jp
SIPRI chief: Japan group winning Nobel prize to remind world of nuke issues | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
The head of a leading security research institute says Nihon Hidankyo winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize is a chance to remind world leaders of the humanitarian dimensions of nuclear weapon-related...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
My thoughts on why Trump is such a polarizing figure – loved by some, loathed by others – dressed up as an enquiry into the non-singular systemic in my latest blog post: dansmithsblog.com/2024/11/25/t...
dansmithsblog.com
Trump and the challenge of the non-singular systemic
Amid the cacophony of overblown claims both for and against, what is so bad about Trump? Or, put the other way round, what is so good about him? Or, to ask my question properly, why is he such a po…
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 07/11/2024
The implications of this headline in the NYT are not pleasant.
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
It’s the cold hard awakening for some of us. Too many others seem to be sleepwalking.
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 01/10/2024
The River Desna in Ukraine: “More than 650km is polluted. Not a single organism survived. .. It’s Europe’s first completely dead river.” Officials say a poisonous slick came across the Russian border and down a tributary river. If so, it's #ecocide
theguardian.com
‘Everything is dead’: Ukraine rushes to stem ecocide after river poisoning
Russia is suspected of deliberately leaking chemical waste into a river, with deadly consequences for wildlife
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 16/09/2024
The world order is in shaky condition and there is no consensus on how to fix it. Maybe we need to think about what to do when consensus is lacking. My thoughts on that in the last in a series of posts on world order.
dansmithsblog.com
World order §8: A multiplex alternative: international cooperation in bite-sized pieces
It is all very well to argue, as I did in my two most recent posts, that far-reaching international cooperation is essential to solve critical world issues and, furthermore, that there are issues on w...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 22/08/2024
Climate change, ecological crisis, trade, cyberspace, the risk of another pandemic: the mutual interest in greater international cooperation is so clear that it is inevitable. Optimism against the odds in my latest blog post:
dansmithsblog.com
World order §7: Shared vulnerabilities demand cooperation
My previous post makes an argument that regular readers of this blog will find familiar: the challenge of ecological disruption including climate change crosses national boundaries and can only be tac...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 13/08/2024
With the world order in bad shape, how do we respond to the ecological crisis? More thoughts in my series on the shakiness of world order today:
dansmithsblog.com
World order §6: Ecological disruption and cooperation
Researchers, commentators and policy-makers are increasingly aware of the negative effects of climate change for peace and security. Climate change undermines conditions for peace and security for all...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 06/08/2024
Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 79 years ago this week. One nuclear bomb dropped on each city killed between 150,000 and 260,000 people. Never forget. Let that be the last time nuclear weapons are used in war.
dansmithsblog.com
1945: 6 August, Hiroshima; 9 August, Nagasaki
Seventy nine years ago, twice and never since then, nuclear weapons were used in war. One bomb on Hiroshima, one bomb on Nagasaki. Blast, fire and radiation killed between 90,000 and 166,000 people in...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 19/07/2024
As world order malfunctions, declining respect for norms and laws is a big part of the problem. However flawed, they protect people from powerful predators. My thoughts, number 5 in a series on world order (3 to go):
dansmithsblog.com
World order §5: Laws and norms – and the double standard
How do you solve a problem like the world order? We have had one – an order, a way of arranging international relations through institutions, treaties, law and norms – for virtually eight decades sinc...
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DanSmith1.bsky.social @dansmith1.bsky.social · 12/07/2024
On current trends, four times as many people will die in war in the 2020s as in the first decade of this century. Thoughts on impact of global disharmony & what Gaza's destruction shows about why it's so hard to manage conflicts in my latest post on World (Dis)Order:
dansmithsblog.com
World order §4: Conflict management in a disordered world: the Security Council and Gaza
During the 2020s, on current trends, four times as many people (or more) will die in war as in the first decade of this century. Since 2010, the number of armed conflicts each year has almost doubled....
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