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Dan Shafer

@danshafer.bsky.social
11K followers 1.1K following 1.8K posts

Founding editor, The Recombobulation Area. Exhausted Dad. Milwaukee person. BUCKS FAN.

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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
NEW: The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat on... Crowley's proposal to protect abortion rights, Republicans’ school funding shell game, Tiffany’s radical tax ideas, more. With @drkristin4wi.bsky.social @patkreitlow.bsky.social & guest Dr. Chris Ford. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/wisconsin-...
therecombobulationarea.com
Wisconsin Politics Group Chat: Crowley proposes protecting abortion rights, Republicans’ school funding shell game, Tiffany’s radical tax ideas
Plus: Downballot races, voting shenanigans, much more. Featuring Pat Kreitlow, Kristin Lyerly, Dan Shafer and special guest Dr. Christopher Ford.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It's that time... WISCONSIN POLITICS GROUP CHAT LIVE! www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhP2...
youtube.com
Welcome to our live show!
YouTube video by Dr. Kristin Lyerly
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
If WI-08 included all of the Fox Valley instead of splitting it, maybe. But WI-01 is the one that's come into play (Steil has typically overperformed and that district has not voted Dem in a statewide since 2018).
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The national environment is terrible for Republicans and even a bunch of red states have statewide elections in play for Democrats. So, why is purple Wisconsin still a toss-up? (Spoiler: It's the money) www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/in-wiscons...
therecombobulationarea.com
In Wisconsin, it’s three billionaires’ money vs. the anti-Trump national environment
The state of the race in the nation’s swingiest swing state is being dominated by the competing forces of a building blue wave and the billionaires spending tens of millions to try to stem the tide.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Seems like a combination of a) inevitable decline in mail-in voting, the further we get from the pandemic, and b) fears over Trump shenanigans with mail-in voting now. Would expect these numbers to go up once in-person absentee voting begins.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
NEW: The state of the race for governor in Wisconsin (and for the state legislature, too) is the three billionaire megadonors vs. the anti-Trump national environment. Let's recombobulate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/in-wiscons...
therecombobulationarea.com
In Wisconsin, it’s three billionaires’ money vs. the anti-Trump national environment
The state of the race in the nation’s swingiest swing state is being dominated by the competing forces of a building blue wave and the billionaires spending tens of millions to try to stem the tide.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
thank you!
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
NEW: Here's The Recombobulation Area's MEGA-PREVIEW of every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature (all 116 of them!) linked here in one place. Let's recombobulate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/2026-elect...
therecombobulationarea.com
2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Legislature
Could Democrats win a trifecta in 2026? Find our preview of all 17 races in the Senate and all 99 races in the Assembly here.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I will sincerely miss the era of geocities-level campaign pages or facebook accounts with a bunch of random numbers in it. The people running for office now are old enough to know how to make a Wix site. It's a sad moment, really.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
When I put together my state legislature MEGA-PREVIEW, I check out the digital presence for every candidate. Some, especially the long-shot races, can be bare bones, or even just a facebook page. This year? I think the millennials have taken over. The websites are too good.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Democrats have a major opportunity to flip a seat in District 21. Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez (who outran Trump by nearly 7%) is not seeking re-election. Longtime Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz (D) faces Dylan Pfaffenbach (R), who started a TPUSA chapter at Carroll U.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The gas station at Bluemound and Hawley has a pop up Brewers merch stand. Haven’t seen too many of those since the height of the Bucks playoff runs. It’s getting serious, folks.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A Janesville council member was denied entry to a Republican event because they said he's a "known leftist operative." The event was being hosted by Rock County Republicans with Tom Tiffany and Bryan Steil: www.gazettextra.com/news/local/j...
gazettextra.com
Janesville council member denied entry to Republican event because he's a 'known leftist"
Janesville City Council member Shane Seeman got turned away from the Rock County Republicans' "Save Saturdays" event, where Republicans Tom Tiffany and Bryan Steil appeared, because organizers said Se...
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Magic wine, JR.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Democrats just need to go 1-for-2 in toss-up races in order to win control of the State Senate for the first time since The Gerrymander began in 2012. They could certain win both of those races. SD21 is looking like a "Lean D" contest. An 18-15 Democratic majority is in play.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The Recombobulation Area Rating for the 17 districts on the ballot this year in the Wisconsin State Senate: Safe D: 4 Likely D: 0 Lean D: 2 Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 0 Likely R: 1 Safe R: 8 With the 10 DEM / 6 GOP not on the ballot this year, that adds up to: GOP: 15 DEM: 16 TOSS UP: 2
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
NEW: CONGRESSMAN MARK POCAN joined The Recombobulation Area podcast! We talked about the 1st CD ("absolutely in play"), Derrick Van Orden ("he's an embarrassment"), money in politics, races up and down the ballot. Let's recombobulate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/mark-on-th...
therecombobulationarea.com
Mark on the Midterms: Congressman Pocan talks flipping the House, Derrick Van Orden’s antics, Bryan Steil’s vulnerability, a Wisconsin trifecta, much more
Mark Pocan thinks the 1st District is very much in play for Democrats, and could be won by Mitchell Berman. Plus: Van Orden’s absurdity and the 3rd District race, key downballot contests, more.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
MORE: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/2026-elect...
therecombobulationarea.com
2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assembly
Republicans have controlled the State Assembly for 30 of the past 32 years, and for the last 16 years in a row. Is this the election where Democrats finally break the cycle?
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The Recombobulation Area Rating for all 99 districts in the Wisconsin State Assembly: Safe D: 26 Likely D: 12 Lean D: 9 Toss Up: 3 Lean R: 3 Likely R: 2 Safe R: 44 Total: DEM: 47 GOP: 49 TOSS-UP: 3
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
MORE on AD88 in our MEGA-PREVIEW here: www.therecombobulationarea.com/i/217167778/...
therecombobulationarea.com
2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assembly
Republicans have controlled the State Assembly for 30 of the past 32 years, and for the last 16 years in a row. Is this the election where Democrats finally break the cycle?
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Assembly District 88 was the closest of all 99 districts in the 2024 election. Just 220 votes was the difference for Republican Ben Franklin (no, not that one). De Pere School District Board Treasurer Brandy Tollefson is the Democratic candidate this time. This could be a DEM FLIP.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Dianne Hesselbein said, "I sincerely think this is the most important election that Wisconsin has ever seen." As trite as the 'most important election of our lifetimes' brand of rhetoric can be, Hesselbein just might be right about this one, for WI. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/wisconsins...
therecombobulationarea.com
Wisconsin’s Fork in the Road
After 16 years of GOP control, Democrats have a shot at winning a majority in the Wisconsin State Legislature. This would be a monumental shift, but it’s far from a given — especially in the Assembly.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Let's recombobulate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/wisconsin-...
therecombobulationarea.com
Wisconsin Politics Group Chat: The Billionaires vs. The People
Tom Tiffany is getting more than 90% of his campaign funding from three billionaires. Plus: Key downballot races, reacting to the polls, much more.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: It's the latest episode of everyone's favorite state politics podcast, the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat! On Tiffany's out-of-control billionaire funding, the very-close polls, key downballot races, more. With @motherhoodforgood.bsky.social @drkristin4wi.bsky.social @patkreitlow.bsky.social:
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
WISCONSIN POLITICS GROUP CHAT LIVE www.youtube.com/live/UHu3Ob1...
youtube.com
Wisconsin Politics Group Chat
YouTube video by Kate Duffy
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
WHAT A WEEK. Join us LIVE for the next episode of the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat here (with @motherhoodforgood.bsky.social @drkristin4wi.bsky.social @patkreitlow.bsky.social and yours truly) coming up at 1PM: www.youtube.com/live/UHu3Ob1...
youtube.com
Wisconsin Politics Group Chat
YouTube video by Kate Duffy
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Republicans don't actually want Milwaukee to succeed. They want to deprive it of resources, deprive it of funding, and then point their fingers and blame the city for the challenges they've chiefly caused. They don't want a thriving city. They want a political punching bag.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
that's the most important thing
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
If you live in Greenfield, Greendale, Hales Corners or Milwaukee's far southwest side, your vote could determine which party controls the legislature for the next two years, policies that impact millions of Wisconsinites. No pressure!
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Trump-Baldwin-Bird!
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Or even probably a few Trump-Baldwin-Donovan voters!
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
MORE on Assembly District 61 in my mega-preview: www.therecombobulationarea.com/i/217167778/...
therecombobulationarea.com
2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Assembly
Republicans have controlled the State Assembly for 30 of the past 32 years, and for the last 16 years in a row. Is this the election where Democrats finally break the cycle?
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Bob Donovan (who maybe doesn't live in the district?) is running for re-election in one of the most important races in the state. The Democratic challenger is Army veteran Ben Brist. I'm not exaggerating when I say this race could be the one to determine the Assembly majority.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Gen X, never beating the allegations
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I pooled three Marquette polls worth of data together to get a larger sample size to take a closer look at Tom Tiffany’s favorability. Here are those metrics on gender, age, ideology, and region:
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: My breakdown of the latest Marquette poll Let's recombobulate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/marquette-...
therecombobulationarea.com
Marquette Poll Breakdown: David Crowley, Tom Tiffany, and an unsurprisingly close race for governor
David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany, boosted by independents. But, it’s Wisconsin, and it’s going to be close. Plus: A closer look at how voters view Tiffany, what’s revealing about Crowley’s numbers.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
WATCH LIVE HERE as David Crowley is about to deliver his 2027 Budget Address at the Milwaukee County Courthouse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvnU...
youtube.com
2027 Milwaukee County Executive Budget Address
YouTube video by Milwaukee County Office of the County Executive
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
"Three billionaires gave more than 90 percent of the money raised by Representative Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee for governor of Wisconsin" Tom Tiffany is the most bought and paid for candidate we've ever seen in Wisconsin. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
nytimes.com
3 Billionaires Have Largely Funded Republican Nominee for Wisconsin Governor (Gift Article)
Under its current rules, Wisconsin has not had a race in which a small number of donors have made up such a large share of a campaign’s funding.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As per tradition, here's the net favorability for the politicians, parties and movements polled by Marquette. Evers: +3 Baldwin: -6 Rubio: -6 Tiffany: -6 Ron Johnson: -8 Vance: -9 Republican Party: -12 Crowley: -13 Hegseth: -20 Democratic Party: -21 MAGA: -21 Trump: -22 Democratic socialists: -24
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Truly insane. The degree to which Tiffany’s funding is coming from just three right-wing billionaires is orders of magnitude beyond even what Elon Musk did in the 2025 state Supreme Court race.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
NEW: With so much talk on data center politics, I wanted to take a different look at the issue. So, I talked to Wisconsin journalists who have been covering what's actually happening with data centers in WI. Part I is with Andrew Weiland of BizTimes: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/what-is-ac...
therecombobulationarea.com
What is actually happening with data centers in Wisconsin? (Part I)
Our two-part conversation covering the on-the-ground reality amid all the noise on the data center issue in Wisconsin. Featuring Andrew Weiland, editor of BizTimes Milwaukee.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
As always, I'll be digging into the crosstabs and writing an in-depth breakdown of the new Marquette poll. Subscribe to The Recombobulation Area so you don't miss a thing: therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe
therecombobulationarea.com
Subscribe to The Recombobulation Area
Dan Shafer's award-winning political opinion column and online publication on the discombobulating politics of Milwaukee and Wisconsin. Click to read The Recombobulation Area, by Dan Shafer, a Substac...
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
WISCONSIN GOVERNOR’S RACE, MARQUETTE POLL CROWLEY: 49 TIFFANY: 46 (Likely voters) CROWLEY: 46 TIFFANY: 45 (Registered voters)
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
WATCH: My podcast with State Rep. Robyn Vining, who is running for State Senate in District 5 in the western Milwaukee suburbs. Robyn is great. Vote for Robyn. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibFY...
youtube.com
ENDORSEMENT: Robyn Vining for State Senate in District 5
YouTube video by The Recombobulation Area
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Support independent media and subscribe to The Recombobulation Area: www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe
therecombobulationarea.com
Subscribe to The Recombobulation Area
Dan Shafer's award-winning political opinion column and online publication on the discombobulating politics of Milwaukee and Wisconsin. Click to read The Recombobulation Area, by Dan Shafer, a Substac...
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Could the Dan Osborn strategy work in eastern Wisconsin?
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
More from my mega-preview of the Senate: www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/2026-elect...
therecombobulationarea.com
2026 Election Mega-Preview: The Wisconsin State Senate
Democrats are in position to win control of the State Senate.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In the Wisconsin State Senate, there are two districts that Trump won by >15% in 2024 where there is an independent — but no Democrat — running against a Republican for an open seat. This will be an interesting test in SD1 and SD9.
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In press release, David Crowley says he would open up BadgerCare as a public option. Crowley: "All Wisconsin families should have access to affordable healthcare, no ifs, ands, or buts."
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Can confirm. Shit remains weird.
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