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The Plan to Deny Both Parties a House Majority

This is, by far, one of the most innovative and exciting approaches I've seen in a while. Links to the convo below: Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/42YTqzi Spotify: bit.ly/4iPSROb YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AdL...

bit.ly

Podcast Episode · Middleweight Politics: Political Analysis for the Independent Voter · 05/05/2025 · 54m

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The goal? Build a caucus big enough to deny both major parties the majority. This would require both major parties to negotiate on legislation, rather than the all-or-nothing stalemate we have today.

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Austen saw the potential for the right kind of independent to gain traction in the deepest red and blue states and districts, and his organization is recruiting and funding independents in safe districts across the country to get more folks like Osborne elected to Congress.

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Austen worked as Deputy Finance Director for Dan Osborne, an independent who turned what should have been a glide-path to reelection for Nebraska's Republican Senator Deb Fischer into a competitive election.

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independentnationalcoalition.com

Anyone interested in turning Congress into a governing body again should check this out: independentnationalcoalition.com/home I had a conversation with the org's founder, Austen Campbell (links in reply), but here's the gist:

Independent National Coalition

Deny the Duopoly, Empower the People. A Fulcrum Caucus Campaign to elect a slate of independents to the House of Representatives and deny both parties a majority.

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Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it. Your comment also reveals what a unique place on the internet BlueSky is. Can't wait for the world to ruin it.

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This is another reminder that we need to change the incentive structure to encourage politicians to campaign for the true majority of voters, as opposed to cobbling together a winnable coalition from the political fringes. Ranked-choice voting in presidential elections is, by far, the best option.

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Of course, the bigger point here is that the opinion of the majority doesn't matter as much as a smaller group of voters in a few key states. While a more left wing candidate might far better, it would come at the expense of an alienated political center.

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These voters also appear in large enough numbers in battleground states where they're exceptionally valuable in national elections.

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They also have a deep trust of parties and institutions, meaning a moderate, establishment candidate would be viewed with suspicion. A bolder antiestablishment candidate such as AOC would actually fare better among these voters.

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The persuadable voters lie in the populist camp - socially conservative, economically liberal voters who actually like Democratic economic policies but are turned off by their cultural messaging.

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Most moderates are functional partisans, meaning they'll habitually vote for one of the two major parties - more out of fear of the opposing party than support for the other. From an electoral sense, moderates aren't necessarily the most valuable.

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Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Democrats have had a deep-rooted fear that nominating someone too far to the left would alienate moderates and cost them the White House, yet two victories by Donald Trump show us how hard moderate voters are to scare off.

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The events of this week have solidified my belief that the best way to find out how much people hate you is to launch yourself into space.

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It also wouldn't hurt to reform elections so organized, polarized factions can't take over one (or both) of the only two choices we have on the ballot. The best option: change elections so we have more than two choices. Proportional representation, and ranked-choice voting can help.

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Whether you're on the left or right, the sort of whipsaw effect this will create is bad for the country. We need reforms that will put the power ceded to the presidency over the past 70 years back in the hands of Congress.

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With the economic forecasts as they are, the GOP could have set itself up for an even more left-leaning, activist Democrat to take the White House and use their expanded presidential powers to build an even more expansive federal government.

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Generational change could be coming fast for Senate Democrats

The progressive wing of the Democratic Party seems more eager to primary their more center-left leadership, which could result in an even further ideological distance between the MAGA-dominated GOP. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

politico.com

The ascendance of several young senators — and one big potential retirement — is reshaping power within the caucus.

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This highlights a weakness in our electoral system, where a handful of counties and voters can have such an outsized impact that the global financial order is nearly upended in response. Per usual reforms such as ranked-choice voting and proportional representation can help.

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So, an anti-China tariff policy helps in the states where the GOP needs votes the most, and declines in the stock market don't necessarily hurt. This being said, a recession created by economic uncertainty & rising costs would.

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And while automation has contributed to close to 90% of the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US over the past few decades, the areas where China's entrance into the WTO hurt most are electorally important counties in WI, MI, & PA.

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Over 60% of Republican-held congressional districts now have median incomes below the national average. With over 90% of stocks owned by the top 10% of households, Republican voters are the last to feel the impact of last week's decline in the stock market.

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Trump's tariff policy is universally regarded as bad economically, but it may not be as terrible politically among the voters that matter to him. @thatshawng.bsky.social of Independent Voter News & I discussed this (links in reply) but here's the gist if you'd prefer it in 300 characters 🧵

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So this isn't to say we should seek to strengthen democratic institutions or put checks on the power of those in office, but it does show us how healthy intraparty competition can help.

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A third Trump term or some other method to disrupt elections would most likely result in either members of the GOP rebelling or splintering off to form their own party.

We often think of democratic institutions as being a check on wannabe autocrats, but we overlook the fact that the presidential ambitions of Cruz and others in the GOP are a check on power in and of itself.

Ted Cruz breaks ranks with Trump to advance his own agenda

For those worried about the future of American Democracy, Ted Cruz's recent break with the Trump administration over tariffs shows how presidential ambition and political competition can help safeguard democratic institutions. 🧵 www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

politico.com

The Texas Republican's rebuke of the president's tariff strategy was only the latest example of how the lawmaker is seeking to strike out on his own.

Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Since Trump’s arrival, the Democratic brand has mostly been about defending political norms—betting voters would see Trump as too extreme. That strategy has now lost twice. Some in the party are starting to question it. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

politico.com

A Rising Democratic Star Is Ready for New Leadership — Without Chuck Schumer

Michigan Democrat Mallory McMorrow says it’s time for a new generation to take on Trump.

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Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

In the 1990's Bill Clinton co-opted the GOP's small government strategy. Is there evidence Democrats could benefit from the same approach now? @thatshawng.bsky.social at IVN and I discussed this in our most recent conversation. Links in reply...

Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

A n number of people who build the atom bomb held ideologies viewed as treasonous at the time & some fled religious persecution to get here. America's edge has always been its ability to attract foreign brainpower & the current ideological purity tests being imposed on academia works against that.

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Dan Sally @dansally.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

My assessment from looking at data I'm not qualified to analyze is that the Democratic Party has been really sheepish about embracing figures like AOC and Sanders, yet they seem to be the ones who'd be most attractive to persuadable Trump voters. Thoughts here?

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So, rather than focusing on which party is winning the race to be the least unpopular, it might be worth exploring what's driving both parties' unpopularity, the impact it could have on democracy, and how we can fix it.

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In fact, the only number moving up are the number of respondent who don't view either party favorably - up from 13% in 2013 to 35% now. (4/5)

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It's also true that Republicans sit at 36% favorability and haven't cracked much above 40% in the past decade. (3/5)

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It's true that the Democratic Party's favorability is at it's lowest point than when this survey began, falling 10 points in the past 6 months. (2/5)

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CNN Poll: Democratic Party’s favorability drops to a record low | CNN Politics

The press would better serve the public if they focused less on the horse race between the 2 major parties and more on the fact a growing number of voters don't like either horse. Case in point - this headline: bit.ly/3DTaBd8 I double clicked on the survey, and here's what I found.. (1/5)

bit.ly

The Democratic Party’s favorability rating among Americans stands at a record low, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, fueled in part by dimming views from its own frustrated supporters.

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Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 18/03/2025

It's also true that Republicans sit at 36% favorability and haven't cracked much above 40% in the past decade.

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Reposted by Dan Sally

I’m wondering this too

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But in a system where the two major parties create obstacles for minor party formation and ballot access, will it result in more choice, or just favor a specific factions of the major parties?

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Supporters argue it forces major parties to compete for the endorsement of smaller parties, giving voters more choice and smaller constituencies more power.

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Former Kansas House Speaker, Don Hineman, recently argued fusion voting could give moderate Republicans more of a voice in the party and dampen the more disruptive elements of the MAGA movement.

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