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In the New Era, only 20% of the first tribal councils were NOT unanimous votes, meaning there was at least one player not voting with the majority and not voted out. The classic era was about 65%. Larger starting tribes are better #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#Survivor51 confessional time and CPH Lewis, Kristin, and Devin are the standouts wrt CPH in episode 1. This accounts for Lewis's exile but not the journey-like challenge which would give him a few more cfnls. Similar I didn't account for Kristin's negotiation. I'll adjust the model next week.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#Survivor51 data is now up! Apologies, for the delay. In personal news I have just relocated to the UK 💂 and arrived about 11 hrs ago! I've caught up and back to regular programming. I appreciate all those that reached out to see where it's at. 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR

github.com

GitHub - doehm/survivoR: Data sets from Survivor in R

Data sets from Survivor in R. Contribute to doehm/survivoR development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

survivoR v2.3.12 is released and includes complete US50 and AU12 data. Any issues please log an issue on git. The R package is approaching 30k downloads which is wild! More considering the untracked git installs and xlsx downloads. If you use it I'd love to hear about it. #Survivor #Rstats

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

I've added a new data set 𝚊𝚍𝚟𝚊𝚗𝚝𝚊𝚐𝚎_𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚎 to the survivoR package. No new info but makes analysis way easier e.g. now you can choose a point in time and see which advantages were in play. Want to guess which season/episode had the most advantages/idols in play at TC? #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Rizo has held an idol for 18 tribal councils. Second only to Ozzy on 19 and tied with Tai. Of those three, only Tai has played an idol successfully (three in fact) #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

That's a wrap on #Survivor50. Preliminary data is up and ready to go. There are still a few things to add, which I'll complete in the next few days. The next release will also include a new advantages table. Download the xlsx from Git. Any corrections, let me know. 🔗 github.com/doehm/survivoR

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Mildly interesting - Cirie has voted for the winner of the season 4 out of 4 times she has been on the jury. Will she make it 5 for 5? Only 3 people in either the F5 or the jury have never voted for the winner. #Survivor #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

I'm pretty sure that Rizo has never attended a tribal council up to the F5 without holding an idol - 15/15. Rizo is 3rd on the list of players who have held at least 1 idol at tribal council. Ozzy is 1st with 19 tribals, and Tai is 2nd on 18. #Survivor #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

While Ozzy didn't beat Boston Rob's IIC record, he still holds the highest overall career score #Survivor #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

That's quite a swing from the last episode! For the record, I would still put my money on Aubry winning, but this is why I like looking at these charts, it shows things you may be missing. Jonathan is actually in a good position. But it always comes down to the pitch. #Survivor #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Ok, this is kind of interesting. Consensus is that the final 5 vote is one of the most important in the game. I wanted to see how the final 5 vote affects the players' chances of winning. The results are not what you'd expect. 🧵 1/ #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Random stat: There have been 7 individual immunities up for grabs, and they have been won by 7 different people. First time in Survivor history. How about that. #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

There's been a shift in the leaderboard with Ozzy voted out. Aubry now has the best odds, followed by Jonathan. I'm still hopeful this is Cirie's season though. #Survivor50

Probabilities of winning estimated from confessionals, challenge success, voting patterns, advantage plays and jury favorability.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

The top 3 players on the CPH chart are now Devens, Cirie, and Jonathan, the only 3 still in the game with a +ve edit. Jonathan has the largest difference between obs and exp. He's had a couple of really good episodes tbh. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

5 year old: Dad, can we watch Ghostbusters every day after school like you did when you were a little boy? But you have to say what they say before they say it. Me: Yes 🥹

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

I *think* (assuming I haven't missed any edge cases or a data descrepency - please reach out if so) the next challenge will be Cirie's 100th! This includes challenges where she sat on the bench. Imagine if she won individual immunity. Huge. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Standings after episode 10. Ozzy is still in the lead. What this means is that all the data points are saying that Ozzy is in a more similar position to players who have won in the past than the other players. #Survivor50 #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

#Survivor50 confessionals/hr At this stage Devens has the largest over-edit wrt to CPH. It's also interesting that Rizo is low given his position. The mean CPH for a winner at episode 10 in the new era is 4.2. All are under, but Ozzy is closest to that benchmark. #Survivor

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Reposted by Dan Oehm

coolbutuseless @coolbutuseless.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

#RStats Playable Doom! Figured out some key handling stuff in my custom graphics device, so I can now actually control the game! Content Warning: I'm not good at doom :)

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

With Christian gone, Ozzy has taken top spot on the leaderboard. As expected, Rizo has climbed the ladder and is now in second spot. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Perhaps the only positive for Christian is that he finishes the game with a 100% successful boot percentage by being able to vote for himself. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

#Survivor50 episode IMDb ratings A few great episodes and a few real shockers. E1 is the 5th highest rated episode in #survivor history, and E4 is the all-time lowest. The question is, is Mr Beast going to deliver a lower rating than 3.7?

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

#Survivor50 E9 Confessionals/hr While Ozzy has the highest cph out of those remaining, it's Devens and Jonathan who are the most over-edited, but not by that much #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Question: Was this a split vote between Christian and Devens? They didn't really show a discussion of a split, at least I didn't pick up on it. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

This is a slightly expanded view. Same story though.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Random stat - Cirie has made the jury 4 times and voted for the winner all 4 times, which includes voting for Parvati twice. #Survivor #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Christian is still the frontrunner at this stage. Ozzy is also doing quite well. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Someone reached out to me for an analysis on whether or not the 1st jury member is more likely to vote for the winner. I understand there was some discussion about this, but I haven't seen/heard anything, so coming in fresh. Here's what the numbers mean 🧵 1/ #Survivor #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

Back from a few nights camping and caught up with the latest episode of #Survivor50 - Double the Demise, Half the Fun... or something like that. The game/twists aside, this episode sucks from a data perspective. Data is up, and here are some release notes 🧵 1/ 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Complete #SurvivorAU Redemption (AU12) data has been delivered. As per usual, any corrections needed, please log an issue on Git and I will correct them asap. 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Rstats

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Here are the final votes with the jury. It almost played out as expected. Only Cameron voted differently. #SurvivorAU

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

All models are wrong, but some are useful, and this might be turning out to be one of the useful ones #SurvivorAU

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Need to review in a week or so, but #SurvivorAU Redemption is the 5th highest rated (IMDb) season and higher than all US seasons. 𝟷 𝚂𝟷𝟷 𝟿.0𝟹 𝟸 𝚂0𝟿 𝟾.𝟼𝟾 𝟹 𝚂𝟷0 𝟾.𝟼𝟽 𝟺 𝚂0𝟻 𝟾.𝟻𝟾 𝟻 𝚂𝟷𝟸 𝟾.𝟻𝟷 👈 𝟼 𝚂0𝟺 𝟾.𝟺𝟹 𝟽 𝚂0𝟽 𝟾.𝟺𝟸 𝟾 𝚂0𝟾 𝟾.𝟸𝟿 𝟿 𝚂0𝟹 𝟾.𝟸𝟻 𝟷0 𝚂0𝟼 𝟾.𝟸𝟺 𝟷𝟷 𝚂0𝟸 𝟾.𝟷𝟾 𝟷𝟸 𝚂0𝟷 𝟽.𝟽

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

A live reunion with a theatrical vote delivery was exactly what I needed. It's the perfect way to end a great season. Not only that, the next season being set in Malaysia is a breath of fresh air. I haven't been this excited for a new season in a while. Well done #SurvivorAU

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Reposted by Dan Oehm

Kevin Steele @kevincsteele.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

after the latest episode, Cirie is up to #2 all time in strategy elo (SHALLOW). still a long way off the model's namesake for #1. survivorelo.com/players/ciri...

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

It's a bit early for the probabilities of winning, but it's still useful to see current standings. My take: Rizo climbs the ladder fast. Let's see how this evolves over the next few tribals. Also, data is up: 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

There have been 3/17 Shot in the Darks that turned out to be safe, which is right on expectation. The curious part of me would like to see higher odds, like 50-50 and see how that changes the game. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

#Survivor50 confessionals/hr It's interesting that the top 9 are all in positive edit territory, other than Ozzy who is about on par (even though he's avg 4.6 cph) #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

This chart is pretty interesting. It shows how the voting connections are stacking up. Two key things stand out to me: 1. Strongest connection: Christian - Emily, followed by Ozzy 2. Aubry is somewhat of an outlier. This is useful to infer what may happen in the next episode. #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

While Caleb is sitting in a better position probabilistically, Jackson seems to be better placed with the jury. The more times a players as voted with a juror, the more likely the juror will reward them with their vote at the FTC. #SurvivorAU

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

I wouldn't have expected Caleb to be the frontrunner at final 4, but here we are. #SurvivorAU

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Here's a random stat. I looked at how many tribal councils have had <6 people attending (excluding the final 5 onwards) • Out of 50 seasons, US #Survivor has had 96 (16% of TCs) • 36 have been in the New Era (32% of TCs) • #SurvivorAU has only had 3! (1% of TCs) and one of those may not count.

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Reposted by Dan Oehm

Kevin Steele @kevincsteele.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Dee wins immunity in Episode 6 but lost BEAST Elo. The model uses full placement ordering, not just win/lose. Dee won her group but placed 11th overall. Stephenie placed 1st (+128.7), Rick placed last (-108.8). Full recap: survivorelo.com/blog/us50_ep... #Survivor50

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

#SurvivorAU Redemption winning odds I think it comes down to whether Brooke can win the last few immunity challenges, potentially 5 IIC. If anyone can do it, it's Brooke. If not, Keeley is in the best position. #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Using {reticulate} and referencing R objects in Python with r.* and Python objects in R with py$* feels like God mode. #Rstats #Python

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

A little more on this. What stands out is the gap between 1st & 2nd. The seasons where there is a huge gap between 1st & 2nd, this is the top 5: 1. Boston Rob (S22) 🏆 2. Russell H. (S19) 🥈 3. Coach (S23) 🥈 4. Christian 👈 5. Savannah (S49) 🏆 2 winners, 2 runner-ups and Hubicki #Survivor

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

#Survivor50 CPH At this stage in the game, Christian has the 15th highest over-edit (2x means 2 times more than expected) 1. Boston Rob (S22) 2.7x 🏆 2. Yam Yam (S44) 2.6x 🏆 3. Russell H. (S19) 2.6x 🥈 4. Coach (S23) 2.5x 🥈 5. Boston Rob (S08) 2.5x 🥈 6. Rupert (S08) 2.5x ... #Survivor

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