iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Also exciting weekend reading

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I had to restrain myself due to luggage, but London book 'haul' from Daunt, Foyles, Waterstones plus Blackwell's at University of Manchester. Yes I am very behind on Jacaranda – I forgot to pick up a copy in Paris

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Glorious views of SF out the plane window ❤️

Speaking of global nuclear war, I wrote about @AnnieJacobsen's new book "Biological War: A Scenario" and how it compares with "Nuclear War: A Scenario." In short: the two books highlight the difference between well-defined catastrophes compared to the infinite uncertainty of bio

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 04/07/2026

Maybe the next gen is going to be okay? We had our delightful f(lux) fellows play Four Forks this week, and they pretty much all ended up with positive outcomes! Meanwhile, I led us to global thermonuclear war :( Find out where you end up: fourforks.riskgaming.com

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A quick post from me on the meaning of America's 250th birthday.

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 28/06/2026

I didn't promote last week, but Kim Jong-un is on a roll – no one has bested the U.S. better in the past decade. How did he build a nuclear weapons program against all odds, and why are top U.S. policymakers resigned to their fate? Lessons from the Hermit Kingdom ⬇️

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 27/06/2026

This weekend's essay from me – sorry, it's 5K words, but if you have the attention span: Chinese economic development, SV workaholics, factory work, what Ren Zhengfei and Steve Jobs share, the most beautiful data center in the world, and comments on the challenges of journalism ⬇️

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 13/06/2026

I wrote this on Tuesday … and then the Friday shut down for foreign nationals using Fable/Mythos happened:

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 28/05/2026

Are AI data centers in space viable? They will be if we build the right infra. That's why Lux led a $90M round into Observable Space, which is using lasers to create higher bandwidth comms between satellites and Earth-based ground stations:

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 27/05/2026

There are times when you just wonder whether we are trying to purposely torpedo the American economy. Are we trying to be globally competitive? It's hard for international businesses to invest domestically when the airports are shut down…

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 27/05/2026

"If it can be automated with AI, it will be automated with AI, so start planning now." I was listening to a major journalism entrepreneur about newsrooms, but the same truth applies across media. The final art is the goal, not the tools that go into making it.

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 22/04/2026

My partner Laurence Pevsner has a great op-ed today in the FT on Europe's industrial policy challenges with space launch capabilities in the wake of SpaceX's impending IPO. It builds on his Riskgaming scenario Dead Reckoning that @Lux_Capital ran at Chatham House last month.

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 06/03/2026

It will never not be miraculous to me that a coding agent proactively solves problems I didn't ask it to fix. So pleasant!

It's nice to know that NATO is starting to figure out that autonomous warfare is the future. In my discussions last week in London, I am always shocked just how much folks are preparing for yesterday's wars rather than the wars of the future. More: www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

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The combination of AI backlash and crony New York capitalism combines in proposed bills like this one, which would ban chatbots from offering any health or legal advice. These chatbots have already been invaluable to me on mundane issues – I can't imagine going back

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Why does the Global South matter? Well, it represents a majority of people on Earth, and no AI company targeting trillions in market cap wants to give up half of their potential users (if not half of all profits available):

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 04/03/2026

AI in the developing world is an angle that far too few are paying attention to. So I appreciate Lucy Quaggin covering the subject for SCMP. A few quotes and a link below. First, I talk about why US AI companies are paying attention to Africa at all:

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Converting a Riskgaming scoring spreadsheet (and all of its formulas) into Python code using Claude Code … and apparently Claude Code can't handle spreadsheets larger than 256kb? Am I missing something?

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 04/03/2026

Fight punct junk - maintain standards!

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 03/03/2026

No discussion of tech media can get past this basic traffic fact: in the AI world, Google and social no longer refer traffic, which means that the vast majority of readers just never find you in the first place. Analysis: growtika.com/blog/tech-m...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 03/03/2026

How did European and UK policymakers perform in Riskgaming at Chatham House? Well, they fell into the trap of European space sovereignty just like in their everyday government positions. Interestingly, they were *more* dependent on SpaceX by the end then our betatest cohorts

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 03/03/2026

The whole Lux Riskgaming crew had a blast hosting Dead Reckoning, our scenario on European space sovereignty at Chatham House's annual defense forum. Not the best outcome for the group (or Europe, for that matter), but lots of fun and learning all around

Three attendees engage in conversation, exchanging cards during an event focused on European space sovereignty at Chatham House.

A group of people interacts and shares cards during an event focused on European space sovereignty at a forum.

A group of people engage in conversation, holding cards and smiling, during a defense forum event focused on European space sovereignty.

A group of people engages in lively conversation at a conference, showcasing a mix of formal attire and camaraderie.

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 16/02/2026

Had a whole hell of a lot of fun hosting Laurence Pevsner's new Riskgaming scenario Dead Reckoning in beta this past week. European space trilemma: space capabilities, autonomy or jobs? The answer was … none, basically, in both runthroughs we ran

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 16/02/2026

This is a great article by Taylor Rayne in Asimov Press on the history of scent, the incredible challenges of mapping out its complexities, and how new startups like Osmo are finding novel applications for AI in digital olfaction.

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 08/01/2026

New post: Why adversarial ambiguity makes prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi extraordinarily challenging to operate. Words like "invasion" and "war" are intentionally avoided in order to not trigger their consequences. Example: The U.S. hasn't declared war since WWII

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 07/01/2026

New post from me: why countries like Korea have learned the art of the straddle and how to extract tech, wealth and influence from the great powers without getting pulverized. Link below:

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 06/01/2026

First essay from me for 2026: "Our 'just take it' era" – The Hobbesian nightmare stealing positive-sum growth, covering Venezuela, California's wealth tax, my home state of Minnesota's welfare fraud, Park Chan-wook, Battle Royale and venture growth. Link below:

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 23/12/2025

Top reader click of the year: JA Westenberg’s “Boarding Group One,” on how airline boarding groups have become a perfect microcosm of our status-obsessed culture. www.riskgaming.com/i/181733882...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 17/12/2025

Making the stock equity of defense primes less valuable is a very weak and roundabout way to push them to be more efficient. Perhaps just holding them accountable to the costs and timelines they sign on the dotted line in procurement would be a lot easier?

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 14/12/2025

Airport lounges may be the truest mark of modernity there is. www.riskgaming.com/i/181349587...

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 08/12/2025

How much of our sleep problems can really be blamed on light pollution? www.riskgaming.com/i/180714225...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 07/12/2025

Fix your life by fixing typewriters? Appealing www.riskgaming.com/i/180714225...

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 06/12/2025

Zen and the art of typewriter maintenance from the NYT: www.riskgaming.com/i/180714225...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 24/11/2025

A former FBI agent just spent years tracking down a North Korean hacker who ransomed a Kansas hospital. Then he offered them a job building a crypto casino. www.riskgaming.com/i/179468812...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 23/11/2025

Check out Brian Moore's new project: Every minute, nine different AI models are asked to generate a new analog clock showing the current time. The results have me puzzling over what, exactly, makes this exercise so complicated. www.riskgaming.com/i/179468812...

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 20/11/2025

Internet writing needs more feedback. If you’re an intellectual and someone tells you you’re wrong, it galvanizes you, it goads you. www.riskgaming.com/p/how-to-be...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 16/11/2025

Lessons from a new wargame: By forcing players to take on the Chinese perspective, the exercise exposed a blind spot in U.S. military planning — we neglect China’s incentive to pursue coercive strategies that exploit American political hesitancy www.riskgaming.com/i/178807966...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 16/11/2025

Fascinating new war game from Syracuse University: What would happen if you were forced to inhabit the Chinese calculus on Taiwan. www.riskgaming.com/i/178807966...

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 15/11/2025

My latest interview: Kirby Ferguson and Ale Matamala Ortiz on the economics of the film industry and the recession in Los Angeles; why filmmaking would have changed even without the rise of AI; how to think about remixing; and the future of art. open.spotify.com/episode/13V...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 10/11/2025

Read more about Majestic and what they are doing here: www.cnbc.com/2025/11/10/...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 03/11/2025

Thinking, fast and slow www.riskgaming.com/i/177567986...

Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 02/11/2025

Does AI "think"? Robin Sloan says we cheapen the term when we say it does. www.riskgaming.com/i/177567986...

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 01/11/2025

Christopher Leonard's deeper dive on the problems in the U.S. defense manufacturing sector is a real-life version of our Riskgaming scenario “Hampton at the Cross-Roads.”

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Danny Crichton @dannycrichton.com · 01/11/2025

Contra the Trump team, modern wars are won through industrial production capacity and logistics rather than battlefield valor. www.riskgaming.com/i/177567986...