iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

“You spend your first 5 years trying to get with the plan, which, in consideration of society’s slouching as well as its taste in wet guys has gone, is not what you want”

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

On Spotify's page for Jets to Brazil, there's a 'new single' that sounds like a stomp clap / Christian rock / elevator music hybrid and is clearly not Jets to Brazil. I guess it's my first time hitting AI on Spotify. It's very weird.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Including my performance disclosures page as well. Would be happy to hear thoughts, pushback, feedback, other opinions, or of course any interest in what we do at Middle Coast. Thanks, and be safe out there! middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

New positions in $GTLB, $SARO, and $DUOL, and significant adds in $BKNG (which I talked about here and in the letter), $FG, $COF, $LYFT, and $HNI. bsky.app/profile/dani...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

As usual, sharing our performance results, where we trailed the Russell 2000's rally to start the year, but otherwise roughly in line with what was happening elsewhere. $ATRO, $ECG, $ADM, $OMAB, and $SON our top winners, $COF, $AMZN, $LYFT, $TRIP, and $HNI our leading losers

A performance table showing Middle Coast Investing's performance compared to relevant indices for Q1 2026. Our U.S. Portfolios were down 3.9% and our Core U.S. Portfolios down 4.3%, vs. S&P 500 down 4.6% and the Russell 2000 up 0.6%. Our European portfolio was down 2.9% vs. Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.8% and DAX down 7.4%.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

It's been one of the stranger stock market quarters I've invested through, and that doesn't even really reflect the U.S. Iran War and its erratic conduct. My Q1 Middle Coast Investing letter reflects on how the only response is to play for time: middlecoastinvesting.com/middle-coast...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Middle Coast Investing Q1 2026 Letter: Playing For Time - Middle Coast Investing

Middle Coast Investing's Q1 Portfolio review discusses the faster than ever moving market, and how investors can focus on their advantages.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

I don´t know how I feel about Andy Jassy namedropping the Beths in his shareholder letter. A little too close to home.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Painting the tape at the end of quarter geopolitics.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

If anyone out there has thoughts on where I'm wrong, I would love to see them. BKNG isn't dirt cheap, but feels to me very much like a great company at a very fair price. 15x FCF, forecast low double digits Rev growth, mid-teens EPS growth for 2026. FD: Long BKNG, TRIP, and GOOG.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

4) AI threat CEO Foley's argument (see image) that LLMs won't becoem merchant of record any more than Google did is both convincing and self-serving. BKNG's track record of building direct traffic, being a customer of the top of funnel players, and diversity of supply hold more weight.

BKNG CEO Glenn Foley responding to a question about agentic booking: Look, we've been competing, so to speak, with a top-of-the-funnel player who's very big for a very long time and people go there, but yet then they come to us direct many of them. Why? Because we are offering them something of value. That's what I believe is going to continue. And by the way, it's been very successful for that large person at the top of the funnel, Google. We've both done very well. They've made very good money setting up an auction format for taking advertising, and we have been more than happy to pay a lot of money as have competitors of us. It's worked out really well for them. It's worked out really well for us. And by the way, some of these other large language models when they're looking at this, they may say, that's the right way to do it. Not go down the funnel, don't become a merchant of record, take it high above, don't deal with the mess of the day-to-day in and out that we have to deal with all the time, successful for us, successful for them. I think that's the way it's probably going to go in the end, but that's my opinion.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

3) In BKNG's favor • Overindexed to non US (75% of bookers are from Europe and Asia), good for dollar weakness • Competitive with ABNB on alternative, but not in the crosshairs of regulators as much as ABNB. • Meaningful buyback (16% reduction in SO vs. 5% for ABNB last 3 years)

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

2b) Its valuation is much more attractive than AirBnB on every important metric: (Note - I use non-GAAP earnings for BKNG as the adjustments seem reasonable, but unadjusted EBITDA. Adj. FCF is FCF-SBC).

Table showing BKNG valuation vs. ABNB and EXPE for 2025.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

2a) BKNG is growing the fastest (13.4% last year vs. 10.3% and 7.6% for ABNB and EXPE) and has grown the fastest since 2020 (16.2% CAGR vs. 13.2% for ABNB if we start at end of 2022 to avoid revenge travel spike). It has the best margins - 31.5% ex SBC FCF margin, vs 24.6% (ABNB) and 18.4% (EXPE)

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

2) In just OTAs, BKNG is the leading incumbent, EXPE is the legacy #2 that is perpetually in turnaround, ABNB is the category disruptor (and $TRIP, which I'm also long, is both sort of a mess and sort of a different category/part of the funnel). I like BKNG's position vis a vis those peers:

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

1) first for what it's worth, the news of $WH plugging in with Google for agentic booking is probably not all of the move, given BKNG was down 7% and $EXPE was down 2%. The quarter and 2026 guide seemed pretty clean to me. Beat on Rev/EPS for Q4, beat on rev guide, in line on EPS guide.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

The hint of AI entering a sector is enough to send given stocks down 10%, some of those hints may turn into threats, so who knows, but I was trying to think of why someone would sell me shares of $BKNG at 15x ex SBC Free cash flow, and a few thoughts:

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Hoping you enjoy this letter and also that you have a successful, prosperous, joyful, and most importantly (as my babushka always said) healthy year! Performance disclosures available here: middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Here's our performance card for the quarter and year $ATRO, $OMAB, $DALN, $COF, $ECG, $SCS, $AER were top winners for the year, $LULU, $PTLO, $GOGO, $APOG, $FG, $ATKR, $WS top losers. Pleased to keep pace without chasing AI/tech (though $COF will hurt this morning).

A performance table for Middle Coast Investing, showing our Q4 performance of 2.7% (core portfolios of 1.9%) vs. the S&P 500 at 2.3% and the Russell 2000 at 1.9%. For the year, we finished up 16.9% (up 20.4% in core portfolios, explained in our letter), vs. 16.4% for the S&P 500 and 11.3% for the Russell 2000. The table also shows performance back to 2020, pre-dating when Middle Coast Investing actually launched. See performance disclosures in our last post of this thread.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

While that queasiness is because of knee-jerk paranoia after three strong years, it's also fair to consider the context of the, hmm, tumultuous start to 2026. I talk about the boring old ways I try to manage that queasiness, which is as much about surviving bumps as avoiding them.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Happy new year! (not too late for that, right?) I'm happy to share my Q4 letter for Middle Coast Investing. 2025 was a good year for markets and us, which leaves me feeling a little queasy for what's to come. middlecoastinvesting.com/middle-coast...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Middle Coast Investing Q4 2025 Letter: Don't Let Me Explode - Middle Coast Investing

2025 was a good year for Middle Coast Investing, as it was for markets as a whole. Paranoia being a staple part of the investor experience, that leaves me feeling queasy. Stock markets tend to go up o...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

We pulled out the podcast mic for the first time in 22 (!) months on the Razor's Edge, as Akram's Razor and I talk AI. • Dark GPUs vs. Dark Fiber • Limits to the Cap-ex trade • Fundamental tensions in AI narratives Check it out here or wherever you get podcasts. open.spotify.com/episode/3j2P...

open.spotify.com

Dark Fiber vs. Dark GPUs and AI Capex

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Reposted by Daniel Shvartsman

Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

I talked up my two biggest portfolio adds - $CPAY and $GOGO - plus a bunch of situational stuff we have added ($HI, $BHF, $AL, and $TFSL). Performance disclosures here. Best of luck for the rest of the year! middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Reposted by Daniel Shvartsman

Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Here's our performance table: $DALN, $AAPL, $SCS, $ATRO, $LYFT, and $ECG keyed the winner side, while $PTLO, $PGR, and $LULU were the main detractors.

Excel table showing Middle Coast Investing performance in Q3 - 9.6% in U.S. portfolios and 10% in core U.S. portfolios - vs the S&P 500 (7.8%), Russell 2000 (12%), S&P 600 (8.7%), and Nasdaq (11.2%). Also shows European portfolio performance (5.5%) vs. Euro Stoxx 50 (4.3%) and DAX (-0.1%). Many other figures, including performance dating to 2020.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Here's our performance table: $DALN, $AAPL, $SCS, $ATRO, $LYFT, and $ECG keyed the winner side, while $PTLO, $PGR, and $LULU were the main detractors.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

It's quarterly letter season, and I'm happy to share Middle Coast Investing's! We had a strong Q3, with the fortune of several buyouts and a few stocks jumping as keys to the quarter. I start the letter, though, with thoughts on using and investing in AI middlecoastinvesting.com/middle-coast...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Middle Coast Investing Letter Q3 2025: Artificial Intelligence, Natural Caution - Middle Coast Investing

The third quarter was a very fortunate one for Middle Coast Investing. Our collective portfolio rose ahead of the S&P 500 and is ahead of our benchmarks year to date. Buyouts of four portfolio compani...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

Ed, not a close follower of nor investor in Nvidia, but they're almost definitely not calling the mark-to-market gain revenue. They also back the unrealized gain in CRWV out of their non-GAAP earnings, which is what they're benchmarked against by analysts. GAAP requirement to recognize the gain.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

I also did an update post $SCS buyout, and the combined $HNI-$SCS entity. Free log-in set up required, I believe. This is the sort of merger that probably doesn't get through Lina Khan's FTC; consolidation of 2 of the top 4 players in a $10B+ industry. Fwiw. investmentcut.pro/cash-in-or-h...

investmentcut.pro

User Login - The Investment Editor's Cut

Register for FREE Here ! or LOGIN BELOW NOTE: After login, select your desired Members Only page Members Only Pages (links): PERFORMANCE reports the ARCHIVE Hot Takes🌶️(Exclusives) Sector WINNERS/LOSE...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

<Takes a big inhale>: Happy Gilmore 2 is just an echo of Don Quixote part 2, with the fictional character stepping into a world that knows him and eggs him on, heightening the hero's del.... <gets trampled by a nag of a horse>

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

I updated on my TripAdvisor $TRIP position for The Investment Cut (run by a friend and former colleague), and how the Starboard 9% position fits into the thesis. Between that and $DALN agreeing to a buyout, good start to Q3 for Middle Coast Investing. investmentcut.pro/assessing-tr...

investmentcut.pro

Reassessing TRIP Amid Starboard’s Filing - The Investment Editor's Cut

FOREWORD: Tripadvisor, Inc, the operator of the Tripadvisor travel platform, as well as travel tour company Viator, and dining platform The Fork, is no stranger to takeover rumours. However, after TRI...

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Reposted by Daniel Shvartsman

Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

The post has winners, losers, and changes, while this link includes my performance disclosures. Stay safe out there! More 'fun' ahead, one way or another. middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Reposted by Daniel Shvartsman

Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

My performance is here. Apple hurt the overall performance, while the core portfolios were doing even better, relatively, until a June earnings bump or two.

Table showing Middle Coast Investing Portfolio performance in Q2 2025 vs. the overall market. S&P 500 is up 5.5% year to date, and the Russell 2000 is down 2.5% (as of June 30th); our overall U.S. portfolios are up 3.9% and our core U.S. portfolios are up 7.5%. Our European portfolio is up 18% vs. the Euro Stoxx 50 at 8.3% and the DAX at 20.1%.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

The post has winners, losers, and changes, while this link includes my performance disclosures. Stay safe out there! More 'fun' ahead, one way or another. middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

My performance is here. Apple hurt the overall performance, while the core portfolios were doing even better, relatively, until a June earnings bump or two.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Happy to share my Q2 letter for Middle Coast Investing. Markets have more than recovered since Liberation Day, but I suspect more heavy stuff is to come I talk about the positives and negatives out there, my portfolio, and a few position changes: middlecoastinvesting.com/middle-coast...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Middle Coast Investing Q2 2025 Letter: All Better Now? - Middle Coast Investing

The last three months have been noisy ones, both in markets and the world at large. For all that, those months left U.S. stocks at all-time highs. Our accounts also did well, not dropping as much as m...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

I got to watch about five minutes of NBA Finals game time while in an airport, which was enough time to make four puckered lips ‘oof’ faces after Pacers shots (two threes and two McConnell shots).

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

One possible benefit of AI in search is to kill a lot of the worst SEO practices (longer articles padded with fluff, redundant headers, the use of the 'breaking news blog' format that divorces headline to content connection), though, really, it will probably get worse in some way.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

So plenty of stars in these three episodes but damn if Valencia doesn’t look good again.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

With the market finishing above April 2nd levels Friday, I decided to break a video format back out. I hit: • 3 reasons that might explain the recovery • 2 things investors should keep in mind. Summing up to The Stock Market 5, a new weekly (?) video series: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmWK...

youtube.com

The Stock Market 5: How Are We Back From Liberation Day?

YouTube video by A Short Investing Guide

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

Friday esmorzaret/almuerzo My tongue was salt pickled by the peanuts for hours.

Pancetta eggs onions potatoes half sandwich with peanuts cake with salt in background.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

The true star of episode 6 of Andor is Valencia.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

I wrote an article about Trip Advisor ($TRIP), in which I own shares, and which in theory could be pretty affected by the whole 'nobody wants to travel to the U.S.' thing, which is real. Here are the questions I have before next week's earnings. seekingalpha.com/article/4780...

seekingalpha.com

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up since the beginning of April (Russell 2000? Not so fast). We should be careful about slam dunking based on market prices. The market is going to market. Plenty more bumps ahead, because that's who's in charge. I don't know what's going to happen. Prepare and hope.

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Reposted by Daniel Shvartsman

iinvested.bsky.social @iinvested.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

1Q'25 Middle Coast Investing on #$ECG, #$SON More fund letters here: lettersandreviews.blogspot.com/p/4th-quarte...

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

I should share my performance disclosures here. Also, wishing you luck, and stay safe out there! I suspect there are a lot more ups and downs in store for us all. middlecoastinvesting.com/performance-...

middlecoastinvesting.com

Performance Disclosures - Middle Coast Investing

The performance disclosures for Middle Coast Investing, including discussion of calculation, use of net returns, and more.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

After the macro stuff, I review our quarter - down, but a little better than the market - and discuss over a dozen stocks we either own, added, or sold in the quarter. At the end of the day, there are always problems on the market. This set of circumstances is unique, but so was 2020 and 2008.

A table showing our Q1 portfolio performance vs. key indices. U.S. portfolios were down 3.7% vs. the S&P 500 being down 4.6%; our core portfolios were down .7% vs. that S&P number and 9.8% for the Russell 2000; our European portfolios were up 9.2% vs. 7.2% for the Euro Stoxx 50 and 11.3% for the DAX.

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Daniel Shvartsman @danielshortman.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

I finally sat down long enough amidst everything to write my quarterly letter. I'm a stockpicker, but start off with macro stuff because (gestures) • The predictable volatility • The surprising indifference • The unpredictable slapdash decision-making • How we're adjusting Have a read below:

middlecoastinvesting.com

Middle Coast Investing Q1 2025 Letter: Before And After The Liberation Day Crash - Middle Coast Investing

After a bumpy but not terrible Q1 for Middle Coast Investing, and a Liberation Day crash to start Q2 that has been bad for everyone, one of my favorite movie quotes comes to mind. The movie is Vision ...

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