Sign in

Daniel Kaufman

@danielkaufman.bsky.social
615 followers 48 following 472 posts

Founder & Principal, Kaufman & Company. Real estate developer, 25+ years. $2B+ project value, 10,000+ units. Workforce housing, mountain towns, infrastructure. thekaufmanco.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 7h
Rents fell for 37 months, yet 1 in 5 working age renters was late in 2025. Deliveries are down 46 percent from the 2024 peak. A $100k household can afford 77 percent of rentals, a $58k earner about a third.
usrealestatejournal.net
The Rent Squeeze Is Climbing the Income Ladder Just as the Supply Cushion Runs Out
Middle-income renters are falling behind even after three years of softer asking rents, and the apartment supply wave that made those rents possible is now fading.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The market slide is where most decks lose a family office. My free e-book shows how to build it with the four factors LandBriefing scores: price momentum, employer catalysts, affordability, supply tightness. Mountain Watch is free too.
landbriefing.com
The Capital You Don't Have to Rent | LandBriefing
A free e-book from LandBriefing: funding your next real estate development without a hard money loan.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Speaking at the Global Family Office Summit in Miami, Oct 15 to 16. New Citi data: family offices hold 13% of North American real estate.
citybiz.co
Daniel Kaufman Brings a Family Office Operator's View of Real Estate to the Global Family Office Investment Summit in Miami
Daniel Kaufman, founder of the permanent capital holding company Kaufman & Company, will speak at the Global Family Office Investment... Read More
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Kaufman & Company just launched 8 brands, Haven, Foundry, Trellis, Convivium, Everwell, District, Weekender, ZeroPoint, across Residential, Places, and Infrastructure. Same 10 operating companies building it all.
thekaufmanco.com
Brands by Kaufman & Company
Explore Kaufman & Company's brands, Haven, Foundry, Trellis, Convivium, Everwell, District, Weekender and ZeroPoint, spanning residential, places and infrastructure.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Deloitte surveyed 950 CRE execs. Housing is the most eager sector to sell, ahead of office, industrial, retail, data centers. Apartment values are up 7.0 percent versus Feb 2020, before the 2022 bubble. Sentiment lags data.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Multifamily Already Recovered. Its Owners Want Out.
Deloitte’s new survey found housing executives are the most eager sellers in commercial real estate, right as the capital markets data says multifamily already turned the corner.
110
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Boomers will free up about 13.9 million homes by 2036, but only 38,000 a year are actual starter homes. The rest are large homes in places losing population. The real shortage is at the entry level.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Silver Tsunami Is Bringing the Wrong Houses
What 13.9 million aging owner homes mean for developers, lenders and anyone underwriting land for the next decade
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Ski towns just had two of their three best visitation seasons on record, yet plenty of good mountains get left behind by consolidation and underinvestment. DEK Builds is going after those distressed resorts across the US and Canada.
thekaufmanco.com
DEK Builds, Kaufman & Company
A ski resort development, acquisitions, and construction platform delivering hospitality and home building within mountain resorts and communities across North America, directly and through joint ventures.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Aging owners will release 13.9M homes by 2036. Only 3% are starter homes, while large home releases equal 67% of current large home listings. Wrong product, wrong places. My read for developers: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-silver...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Sept added just 29,000 jobs, a third of forecast. Mortgage rates jumped 6.66% to 7.28% in a month. On a $400k loan that's +$166/month, cutting buying power by $46,000. More:
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Jobs Report Didn't Break Anything. The Rate Did.
September's jobs number was a miss. The economy added just 29,000 jobs, about a third of what economists expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. July and August were also revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
New free e-book: The Capital You Don't Have to Rent. A $4,000,000 loan at 11 percent and 2.5 points, 4 months, costs about $591,000 once you count everything. That is the real cost of hard money, and just the opening chapter. f.mtr.cool/jpubrxf10z
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
A second judge just blocked the $100,000 H-1B visa fee, ruling the government skipped required rulemaking steps. My take: this should go through Congress, not a proclamation. More here: f.mtr.cool/wu693ut27o
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The jobs report didn't break anything. The rate did. 7.28% on the 30 year fixed, and the same payment buys $46K less loan than at the 2024 low. Warning bells and opportunities for developers and investors: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-jobs-r...
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Orange County agent, 18 years in the market: a single family rental at today's $1.5M to $2M entry prices probably won't cover its mortgage. Her advice: think in units, not houses.
keycrew.co
Why a Single-Family Rental in Orange County, California, Probably Won't Cover Your Mortgage - KeyCrew
Small investors eyeing Orange County often default to the most familiar playbook: buy a single-family home, rent it out, build equity over time. But at Orange
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Austin prices are down 27.6% from the 2022 peak. The housing wage gap still widened to nearly $10/hr. Price drops are not the same as affordability fixed.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Austin Prices Fell 27 Percent. The Housing Wage Gap Didn’t Move.
Builders are retreating across the Sun Belt just as the national housing wage gap widens to nearly ten dollars an hour, and the two trends are more connected than they look.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
HUD put factory built housing on the National Mall. The real test isn't the box, it's getting lenders, insurers, and zoning boards to say yes. What we're doing at Oldivai and Mr. Good Container Homes:
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Home Is the Last Thing We Still Build By Hand
Washington finally put factory built housing on the National Mall. Here's what we're already doing about it at Oldivai and Mr. Good Container Homes.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
LA's median earner would spend 84.4% of income on the median mortgage. Miami's new homes cost 248% more than existing ones. North Port builders are discounting. 100 metros graded. The grades aren't the point, the gaps are. danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-report...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Deloitte surveyed 950 CRE execs on 2027: capital's coming back, but unevenly. My take: next cycle rewards discipline over volume.
medium.com
CRE Heads Into 2027 With Capital to Spend. Here’s Where We’re Spending Ours.
CRE Heads Into 2027 With Capital to Spend. Here’s Where We’re Spending Ours. Deloitte surveyed 950 commercial real estate executives about the next 18 months. We read it the way we read every …
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Realtor.com calls Sept 27–Oct 3 the best week of 2026 to buy. Prices sit 3.5% below the summer peak, inventory's up ~32% since January, demand's down 30% from peak. Data says buyer's market; sentiment hasn't caught up.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Best Week To Buy Nobody Believes Is Real
Consumer sentiment just fell to 47.8 while inventory sits nearly a third above where it started the year, and the gap between how buyers feel and what the numbers show has rarely been this wide.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
75 US data center projects were delayed or canceled in Q1 2026 alone, matching all of 2025. Average wait for grid power now runs 64 months. Power was never the only gate; water, zoning, and insurance are catching up. My take:
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Power Was Never the Only Gate
MSCI just mapped every way a US data center project can stall. Most of them have nothing to do with the grid.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Manufactured housing's been the industry's ugly stepchild for decades. That's changing: HUD is looking at dropping the permanent chassis rule, states are opening zoning to it. Zoning's still the real bottleneck. My take:
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Manufactured Housing Moment Is Finally Here
Policy, product, and capital are finally moving in the same direction, and the operators who move now will set the standard for everyone who follows.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Negative posts about a project outrun positive ones every time. That dynamic is now deciding where data centers and housing get built. Here's how we get facts out early, before the hearing: www.streetinsider.com/KeyCrew/Soci...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Joined Dave Dubeau's Property Profits Real Estate Podcast to talk about how family offices actually evaluate real estate deals, the mistakes new developers make, and why patience beats shortcuts. 23 min:
youtube.com
How Family Offices Really Think About Real Estate with Daniel Kaufman
What does a family office really look for in a real estate opportun...
001
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Mall values rose 2.5% in August alone, ~14% over the past year, per Green Street's Sept index. No new indoor megamall built in the US since 2019; ~200 have closed since 2008. Supply died, demand didn't.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Everybody Buried the Mall. It Just Beat Every Other Asset Class.
Kate King ran a story in the Wall Street Journal this morning with a headline that would have been unpublishable five years ago. Malls were left for dead, and they are now the top performer in commercial real estate. Values up 13 percent over the past yea
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
MSCI counted 75 US data center projects delayed or canceled in Q1 2026. That's all of 2025 in one quarter. Power is the first gate. Permitting, water and insurance are what's killing projects now. danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/power-was-...
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Power Was Never the Only Gate
MSCI just mapped every way a US data center project can stall. Most of them have nothing to do with the grid.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% this week, first hike since 2023. 10-yr Treasury hit 5.041%, highest since 2007. US CRE investment hit $74.4B in July — highest since 2005. Capital hasn't left, it's gotten pickier.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Higher for Longer Just Got Longer
The Fed's first hike in three years isn't the real story. The 5% Treasury is. Here's what breaks, what doesn't, and where I think the opportunity sits.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New tariffs hit Canadian cement, plywood, and machinery at 50%, stacking on existing steel/aluminum tariffs. Materials already up 7.4% YoY, copper +18%, steel +17%. Underwrite with eyes open.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
What the New Canada Tariffs Actually Mean for Development
A 50% tariff on Canadian cement, plywood, and machinery just hit the industry. Here is what it actually does to your bids, your underwriting, and your next 18 months.
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023. The real story is the 10 year at 5.04%, highest since 2007. Rates didn't kill deals. Bad capital structures kill deals. danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/higher-for...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Rent growth just slowed to 2.5% nationally, slowest on record. Austin, Tampa, Denver renters save $3,000+/yr vs buying, while SF (+6.4%) and Chicago (+5.6%) run hotter. Sun Belt isn't overbuilt. It's uneven.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
The Sun Belt Isn’t Overbuilt. It’s Uneven. And That’s a More Dangerous Problem.
THE KAUFMAN REPORT
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Malls were the top performing commercial property sector in America over the past 12 months. Up 13% per Green Street, double the CRE average. Everyone spent 15 years writing the obituary. Nobody spent 15 years building new ones. danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/everybody-...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Convivium Living, one of our 10 operating companies, builds co-living communities and operates them in-house — development and operations under one roof, not split across different players.
thekaufmanco.com
Our Companies, Kaufman & Company
A platform of ten operating companies spanning residential development, affordable housing, hospitality, advisory, and venture capital.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
This month Kaufman & Company launched as one platform — 10 operating companies, 7 Kaufman Ventures companies, one structure instead of silos. $2B+ delivered, 10,000+ housing units, 25+ years.
thekaufmanco.com
U.S. Real Estate Journal, Kaufman & Company
U.S. Real Estate Journal is an independent real estate industry publication founded by Daniel Kaufman, featuring original analysis from Kaufman & Company's leadership and industry partners.
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
For 5 years, our thesis has been smaller cities, smaller markets and overlooked opportunities Now the data is catching up But cheap land ≠ a good deal The opportunity is where basis, demand, limited supply and improving liquidity intersect My latest: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-market...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Two years ago, I warned Florida’s housing boom was heading for a reset. I was told I was crazy. Now the data is catching up. Florida isn’t dead, but the old thesis is. The next opportunity will be about basis, discipline and fundamentals. medium.com/@danielkaufm...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
BridgeStar.ai just expanded from a closing portal for borrowers into the single portal for every partner across our 10 companies — contractors, land partners, residents, our venture founders. Each gets a workspace built for that relationship.
thekaufmanco.com
U.S. Real Estate Journal, Kaufman & Company
U.S. Real Estate Journal is an independent real estate industry publication founded by Daniel Kaufman, featuring original analysis from Kaufman & Company's leadership and industry partners.
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Real data most missed in the AI/jobs panic: entry-level roles may be absorbing more of the hit than anyone else — AI is good at exactly the routine tasks that are often someone's first job.
danielkaufmanre.substack.com
Everyone Is Wrong About AI and Jobs. The Data Just Proved It.
Scroll social media for five minutes and you’ll find the same story. AI is coming for your job. The layoffs are already here. White collar work is about to get gutted.
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Social media says AI is destroying jobs. Three years of regional business survey data says otherwise. 61% of service firms now use AI, up from 25% in 2024. Layoffs? Still just 4%. Firms aren’t cutting people. They’re retraining them. Full breakdown: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/everyone-i...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Everyone’s skating toward data centers right now. We think the better trade is a step behind that, in the manufacturing and industrial capacity that actually makes the buildout possible. Free breakdown here: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/skate-to-w...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Manufactured housing has been stuck as a niche product for decades. HUD reform, chassis requirement removal, and bank appetite are converging right now. Policy, product, and capital rarely move together. This is that moment. New post: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-manufa...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
We already ran this experiment once. America let local opposition kill manufacturing, one permit fight at a time. China absorbed it. Youngstown never came back. We’re doing the exact same thing to AI infrastructure right now. Full breakdown: danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/weve-seen-...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A 50% tariff on Canadian cement, plywood, and machinery just hit the industry with 30 days notice. The real cost won't show up in the headline, it'll be buried in your next bid. Here's how to protect your pro forma: 🔗 danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/what-the-n...
1010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Bessent says the K-shaped economy is over. Housing data says the opposite. Entry-level home views are below 2019 levels despite less supply. Luxury views haven’t moved. 40%+ of $1M+ sales are cash. The K didn’t close. It just moved. danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-k-was-...
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
LandBriefing is live: a free national land opportunity watchlist. 14 metros. Ranked on momentum, employer catalysts, affordability, and supply risk. Adjustable weighting sliders. Real underwriting discipline, not a static report. Story: citybiz.co/article/887814 Go look: www.landbriefing.com
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I had a Myspace Top 8. Gen X, early adopter, the whole thing. So when Myspace’s owners said a relaunch is coming, I actually paid attention. My honest take on why nostalgia won’t be enough to bring it back 🧵 open.substack.com/pub/danielka...
010
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
5 years ago: “San Francisco is dead.” Today: SF apartment rents just passed pre pandemic highs and moved above NYC. Vacancy at 3.7%, lowest since 2019. Sentiment lags. Data leads. Full piece here: medium.com/@danielkaufm...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Everyone says Florida is hot and the Northeast is dead The data says the opposite. All 10 of the hottest ZIP codes in America this year are in the Northeast or Midwest. Zero are in Florida The number one spot is a Boston suburb. Here’s why the narrative is wrong. open.substack.com/pub/danielka...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
San Francisco was the pandemic’s biggest loser. Miami was its biggest winner. Six years later, that’s completely flipped. Miami now has the worst out migration of any large county in America. SF’s exodus has nearly stopped. Same lessons though. open.substack.com/pub/danielka...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Gary, Indiana is about to demolish 7,000 blighted properties. Nippon Steel already put $950M into the mill. Population decline has slowed, crime is down, and there’s a real master plan behind it. Same setup Detroit ran a decade ago. Full thesis here: open.substack.com/pub/danielka...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
New in Jacksonville’s Springfield Historic District: we’re restoring a century old brick building at Main & 12th (125K SF, adaptive reuse) while @Oldivai builds 150 units of modular workforce housing directly across the street. ~$75M combined. www.usatoday.com/press-releas...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
A box with four walls doesn’t lease itself anymore. Surf parks, ski hills, golf courses, stadiums, they’re all running the same play: the amenity comes first, the residential and retail come after. New post: open.substack.com/pub/danielka...
000
Daniel Kaufman @danielkaufman.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
🏡 Orlando just approved a program that pays homeowners up to $10K to build ADUs and rent them at workforce housing rates. Broke down what it offers, the requirements, and why it matters most in a tourism heavy market like Orlando. write.as/dankaufman/t... #AffordableHousing #ADU #Orlando
Photo of Daniel Kaufman, a real estate developer and investor in front of an ADU in Orlando, Florida.
000