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Daniele Garofalo

@danielegarofalo.bsky.social

101 followers 143 following 252 posts

Intelligence, Security Consultant, Analyst, Lecturer: Terrorist & Insurgent Armed Groups. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Posts Replies Media

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 32m

#Kohat Police Lines was targeted in September 2026, just 13 months after Pakistani authorities disrupted a plot against the same compound.The intelligence concern: disrupting a cell does not necessarily eliminate the threat to its target. #Pakistan www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/kohat-poli...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Kohat Police Lines Attack Exposes Persistent Targeting and Militant Network Vulnerabilities

A Foiled Plot, a Renewed Attack, and Unanswered Intelligence Questions

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 50m

IMP attacks fell 38% in September, but the numbers conceal a more important development. Full September 2026 #IMP Strategic Threat Outlook, including operational trends, early warning indicators and the 30–90-day forecast. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/ittehad-ul...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP): Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Strategic Threat Outlook - September 2026

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 1h

JNIM claimed 805 attacks across the #Sahel in Jan–Sep 2026. Full September 2026 #JNIM Strategic Threat Outlook, including geographic trends, targeting patterns, strategic implications, early warning indicators and the 30–90-day forecast: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jnim-opera...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

JNIM: Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Strategic Threat Outlook - September 2026

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 3h

Pakistan | TTP Operational Assessment, September 2026 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan maintained substantial operational activity throughout the first nine months of 2026, with 3,091 attacks claimed between January and September. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/tehrik-i-t...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): Operational Trends, Targeting Patterns, and Threat Forecast

Strategic Threat Outlook - September 2026

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

🔎 Eyes on Jihadism | Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities. Issue #180 - September 24–30, 2026 The latest weekly monitoring cycle identifies sustained jihadist operational activity across several theatres. 📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities

Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #180 - Week 24 - 30 September.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

A terrorist cell, a criminal network and a state proxy may look like three different security problems. Increasingly, they are exploiting the same enabling environment. Weekly Threat Shift #20 examines six developments. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-infras...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Infrastructure of Violence

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #20

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Eyes on Jihadism #179 | Weekly Jihadist Monitoring Full monitoring report in the link below. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities

Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #179 - Week 17 - 23 September.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Read The Accessibility Gap, Weekly Threat Shift #19⁠ www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-access...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Accessibility Gap

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #19

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

🔎 Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #178 - Week 9 - 16 September. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities

Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #178 - Week 9 - 16 September.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Five regions. Five developments. The next 30 days could test the resilience of an increasingly interconnected security environment. The September–October Strategic Monitoring List identifies five developments. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-d...

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

🔎 Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #177 - Week 1 - 8 September. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities

Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #177 - Week 1 - 8 September.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

📊 My new assessment: “25 Years After 9/11: The Global Jihadist Threat has Changed, Not Disappeared” 🆓 Free Access 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/25-years-a...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

25 Years After 9/11: The Global Jihadist Threat has Changed, Not Disappeared.

Jihadist terrorism has lost its centre and expanded its periphery.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

🧠 Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment 📍 Executive Intelligence Briefing - Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): September – November 2026. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/global-jih...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment

Executive Intelligence Briefing | Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): Semptember – November 2026

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — August 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — Augsut 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — August 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — August 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | August 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | JNIM — August 2026

Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Africa - August 2026. 📊 Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Africa — August 2026.

Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) / August 2026 📊 August 2026 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — August 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

🔎 Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #176 - Week 25 - 31 August. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring of Jihadist Propaganda & Military Activities

Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Issue #176 - Week 25 - 31 August.

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “JNIM Beyond the Battlefield. The Cognitive Warfare Campaign for Legitimacy in Burkina Faso”. 🆓 Free Access. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jnim-beyon...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

JNIM Beyond the Battlefield

The Cognitive Warfare Campaign for Legitimacy in Burkina Faso

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The Operational Turn”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #16 🆓 Free Access. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-operat...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Operational Turn

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #16

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “From Radicalization to Sabotage”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #15 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-collap...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Collapse of Threat Boundaries

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #15

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

🔎Eyes on Jihadism: Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda. Intelligence Brief | Issue #175 - Week 18 – 24 August. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda

Intelligence Brief. Issue #175 - Week 18 - 24 August

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The convergence of organized crime, hostile intelligence, facilitation networks, and transnational threats. Implications for Italian and European National Security”. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-conver...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The convergence of organized crime, hostile intelligence, facilitation networks, and transnational threats

Implications for Italian and European National Security

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Africa - July 2026". 📊 Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-threat-outlook-islamic-027

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Africa — July 2026.

Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

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Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The New Geography of ISCAP. Why the Islamic State Is Expanding Beyond Its Traditional Strongholds in Eastern DR Congo”. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-new-ge...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The New Geography of ISCAP

Why the Islamic State Is Expanding Beyond Its Traditional Strongholds in Eastern DR Congo

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

🧠 Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment 📍 Executive Intelligence Briefing - Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): August – October 2026 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/global-jih...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment

Executive Intelligence Briefing | Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): August – October 2026

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | July 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | JNIM — July 2026

Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) / July 2026 📊 July 2026 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — July 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The Long Tail of Terrorism”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #12 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-long-t...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Long Tail of Terrorism

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #12

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — July 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — July 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — July 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — July 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “Security Perimeters Under Pressure”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #13 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-p...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Security Perimeters Under Pressure

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #13

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

slamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | July 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — July 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast

Reposted by Daniele Garofalo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “From Radicalization to Sabotage”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #14 🆓 Free Access. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-radic...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

From Radicalization to Sabotage

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #14

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “From Radicalization to Sabotage”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #14 🆓 Free Access. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-radic...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

From Radicalization to Sabotage

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #14

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

slamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | July 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — July 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “Security Perimeters Under Pressure”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #13 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-p...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Security Perimeters Under Pressure

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #13

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — July 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — July 2026

Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #173 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 August. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/intelligen...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Intelligence Brief | Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda

Issue #173 - Week 1 - 8 August

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — July 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) — July 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Threat and Operational Assessment: Islamic State — al-Naba Weekly Analysis - Issue 559 🧠 Intelligence Brief 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/threat-and...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Threat and Operational Assessment: Islamic State — al-Naba Weekly Analysis

Issue No. 559 | Intelligence Brief

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The Long Tail of Terrorism”. What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #12 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-long-t...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Long Tail of Terrorism

What Changed in Global Security This Week? Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #12

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

🔹Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) / July 2026 📊 July 2026 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — July 2026

Operational Trends, Security Risk, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | July 2026. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/strategic-...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Strategic Threat Outlook | JNIM — July 2026

Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

🧠 Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment 📍 Executive Intelligence Briefing - Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): August – October 2026 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/global-jih...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Global Jihadist, Insurgent & Hybrid Warfare Threat Assessment

Executive Intelligence Briefing | Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): August – October 2026

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The New Geography of ISCAP. Why the Islamic State Is Expanding Beyond Its Traditional Strongholds in Eastern DR Congo”. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-new-ge...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The New Geography of ISCAP

Why the Islamic State Is Expanding Beyond Its Traditional Strongholds in Eastern DR Congo

Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #11 What Changed in Global Security This Week? When Known Threats Break Through”. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/weekly-thr...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Weekly Threat Shift | Issue #11

What Changed in Global Security This Week? When Known Threats Break Through

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

🚨Read my latest analysis: “The Islamic State in the First Half of 2026. Operational Trends, Strategic Adaptation and the Evolution of Global Insurgency”. 📊 Read the full analysis here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-islami...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

The Islamic State in the First Half of 2026

Operational Trends, Strategic Adaptation and the Evolution of Global Insurgency

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Daniele Garofalo @danielegarofalo.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #171 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 17– 24 July 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/intelligen...

danielegarofalomonitoring.com

Intelligence Brief | Eyes on Jihadism. Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda

Issue #171 - Week 17 - 24 July

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