iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 10/10/2026

The filter assigned predictive probabilities of 17% (tank) and 10.6% (tap) to today’s colour-chart readings: 2.56 and 3.24 bits of surprisal. The GADF is useful here because the tests are categorical and uncertain, while nitrate levels change between tests. It […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

Time-series graph of an aquarium nitrate model from 2–10 October 2026. Blue line shows estimated nitrate concentration (ppm), rising from approximately 4 to 11.5 ppm before falling to 9.1 ppm following new measurements and then 7.6 ppm after a 25% water change.

Green line shows estimated net nitrate accumulation (ppm/week), initially around 2.3, increasing to 3.1 before falling to 2.1.

Shaded regions show the 95% uncertainty intervals for both estimates. The nitrate uncertainty widens between measurements and contracts when new observations are assimilated.

100 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 07/10/2026

One of the better perks of being Head of #Mathematics: occasionally I get to sit at the back and simply enjoy some very good #maths. This afternoon: Richard Thomas FRS giving the 2026 Terry Wall Lecture on enumerative algebraic geometry and string theory. A […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

View from the back of a packed lecture theatre during the 2026 Terry Wall Lecture at the University of Liverpool. The speaker stands at the front beneath two large projected screens showing an example from algebraic geometry: a degree-four polynomial in two variables and a sketch of a genus-3 surface. Audience members are seated in the foreground.

001 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 06/10/2026

A few days on, the aquarium GADF has now seen its second set of nitrate measurements. I have also added some diagnostics to answer two slightly different questions: 1. How plausible was the measurement before the filter saw it? 2. How much did it change what […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

Home Assistant dashboard showing diagnostics from the second set of measurements processed by the aquarium nitrate Gaussian assumed-density filter on 6 October 2026. For the tank test, the observed swatch had predictive probability 47.49%, surprisal 1.07 bits and ranked probability score 0.28; the observation reduced nitrate variance by 33.53% and net-accumulation-rate variance by 25.05%. For the tap-water test, predictive probability was 28.08%, surprisal 1.83 bits and RPS 0.35; tap-water nitrate variance was reduced by 34.40%.

002 2

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 04/10/2026

I have, perhaps inevitably, built a Gaussian assumed-density filter (GADF) to estimate nitrate in my #Aquarium. I initially thought of it as a #KalmanFilter, but parts of the physical and measurement model are non-Gaussian, so GADF is the more accurate […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

Home Assistant dashboard showing the aquarium nitrate model over 2–4 October 2026. The blue curve is estimated nitrate concentration with a shaded 95% uncertainty interval; the green curve is estimated net nitrate accumulation rate with its 95% interval. The current summary reports nitrate 7.90 ± 1.74 ppm, net accumulation 2.29 ± 1.32 ppm/week, and tap-water nitrate 4.28 ± 1.51 ppm. The filter has only been running for a few days, so the estimates and uncertainty are still settling.

001 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 20/09/2026

Sunday maintenance on The Seas :seas: Aquarium is complete. NH₃/NO₂ undetectable, NO₃ 4 ppm, pH 7.4, KH 3° and GH 11°. Water temperature averaged 22.9°C over 24 hours. #HomeAssistant tracks water parameters, temperature, heater energy and maintenance […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

Home Assistant dashboard for a 125-litre aquarium. Water temperature is 22.6°C, nitrate is 4 ppm, and the estimated nitrate accumulation rate is −1.02 ppm/week. A five-day graph shows aquarium and room temperatures alongside heater energy consumption.

Aquarium water test results displayed in Home Assistant: nitrate 4 ppm, nitrite 0 ppm, ammonia 0 ppm, general hardness (GH) 11°dH, carbonate hardness (KH) 3°dH, and pH 7.4.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 17/09/2026

A strange thing happened today. I wrote a to-do list this morning and, by the end of the day, had ticked everything off. My inbox is also empty. I’m not entirely sure what to do with myself. Presumably I’ve forgotten something important.

010 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 31/08/2026

The move involved new substrate, replanting everything, transferring the livestock & existing hardscape, & a fair amount of buckets, sand & wet towels. Happily, everything survived & the water settled quickly. Most of the livestock is still hiding & settling […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

A newly set-up Fluval Roma 125 freshwater aquarium with a black background and dark sand substrate. Dense green plants and a large piece of wood form the main feature on the right, with a smaller rock-and-plant arrangement on the left and an open swimming area through the centre. A column of fine bubbles rises on the left. Most of the fish and shrimp are hidden among the plants while they settle in. In the foreground, black airline tubing has been arranged into a subtle Mickey Mouse head silhouette as a hidden Disney detail.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 23/08/2026

Each of us has a dream, a heart's desire. It calls to us. And when we're brave enough to listen, and bold enough to pursue, that dream will lead us on a journey to discover who we're meant to be There’s nothing quite like Happily Ever After ✨ #wdw #Disney #disneyworld :MickeyHeadOutline:

Cinderella’s castle in the magic kingdom immediately before happily ever after

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 20/08/2026

Taking a brief break from my break: our paper using synthetic ultrasonic data and neural networks to size real thermal-fatigue cracks is out. A collaborative effort across #maths, #engineering, #materials #science, #MachineLearning, & imaging — driven by the […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

Graphical abstract showing a workflow for ultrasonic crack sizing. Finite-element simulations generate synthetic pulse-echo data from cracks labelled by height and angle. These data train a one-dimensional convolutional neural network. Applied to an ultrasonic measurement of a crack in a nuclear-plant component, the network estimates the crack’s height and angle.

022 2

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 04/08/2026

#TIL you can open the same Word document in two *separate* windows and continue editing the same document with changes synced across both windows without conflicts.

001 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 04/07/2026

I *may* have wandered into our local fish store this afternoon. I *may* also have bought more #fish. On an *entirely* unrelated matter, please meet Kung Fu the Panda Cory 🐼. I haven’t had chance to think of suitable punny names for the rest of the school yet […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

010 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 30/06/2026

I need to go for a fasting blood test today. I can cope without food. Coping without coffee, however, is beginning to feel less like preparation for a blood test and more like a character assessment I did not consent to.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 28/06/2026

I feel that I may have missed something about a #goose?

100 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 13/06/2026

Summer vacation planning time… 😎⛱️🕶️ :MickeyHead: :MickeyHeadOutline: :mickey:

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 08/06/2026

Looking forward to all these big companies going public at the same time …

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 06/06/2026

#Agile #Octopus is awesome - for most of the day tomorrow, we get paid to use electricity! Time to charge up the eV and get a load of washing and drying done.

A graph showing half-hourly electricity costs.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 01/06/2026

Sat overlooking a lake with a glass of wine, in front of a fire, and watching the rain. #Perfection

View from the sofa overlooking a lake through the trees with a fire in a fireplace.

100 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 01/06/2026

Go on holiday, they said. It’ll be good for you, they said. You’ll enjoy it, they said. They didn’t say that I would need a dinghy.

A weather forecast predicting rain all week.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 28/05/2026

Sigh … further VPS price hikes in response ballooning hardware prices.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 26/05/2026

Now I’m on the good drugs, I can actually move again #sciatica

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 26/05/2026

A combination of being wildly busy at work and home has meant that I’ve been largely silent on #mastodon in recent months. However, a combination of the bank holiday weekend and sciatica has meant that I’ve got a little bit more time on my hands. Let’s see if I remember how to drive this thing…

001 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 28/04/2026

So… I may have gone down the home automation rabbit hole, courtesy of @homeassistant.

010 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 08/04/2026

I’m not done quite yet, it seems… my RAID needs rebuilding *sigh* #selfhosting

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 06/04/2026

And, we’ve finally done, a mere 10 hours after starting. Pro tip: Don’t accidentally disable sshd.service before rebooting a headless server. #selfhosting

100 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 04/04/2026

I am pleased* to report that our youngest has learned to whistle and she is very much enjoying showing off her new talent. Sounds like a sheepdog trial. — * not really

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 03/04/2026

Tonight, we get free electricity and tomorrow we get paid off on use electricity thanks to #Agile 🐙 and the windy UK 💨 ⚡️

001 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 31/03/2026

So… I had to insert references into a Word document today. #unclean #dirty #painful

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 26/03/2026

#xkcd #3224 Centimeter wavelengths Yes, the cosmic microwave background is great, but what about the earthly microwave foreground? xkcd.com/3224

TIME SPENT
DEBUGGING
CENTIMETER-
WAVELENGTH
ANTENNAS
IT PEOPLE
TROUBLE-
SHOOTING
WIFI ISSUES
PENZIAS
& WILSON
-
→
NOBEL PRIZES
AWARDED AS A RESULT
I JUST THINK THE OTHER PEOPLE WORKING IN THE
FIELD DESERVE AT LEAST A LITTLE RECOGNITION.

010 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 24/03/2026

Despite the recent pain of #Agile 🐙 ⚡️ rates, the next 18 hours are looking pretty good! Less than 50p to charge my car from 40% ➡️ 100%.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 21/03/2026

That’ll teach me to #pushtoprodfriday — woke up to a corrupted #email database. Luckily it was my replica so no data was lost. However, the issue currupted most of my PITR lineage, so I need to wipe and reseed. #sigh #selfhosting.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 10/02/2026

It looks like, for reasons unknown, my mastodon server borked overnight so I am now wading through a 24 hour torrent of toots. Bear with me …

100 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 17/01/2026

The West Wing remains one of the best series ever made—because it’s written like it believes words matter. #TheWestWing

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 16/01/2026

Well… the simple central heating pump replacement escalated rapidly to a pump replacement, a wiring centre replacement, and three valve replacements. Despite the frustration and time-sink of it all, I’m quite pleased that I managed to do it myself. 🛠️

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 30/11/2025

It seems that hanging the outdoor Christmas lights has, once again, broken me.

010 1

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 17/11/2025

Apparently, I am at the stage in life when the simple act of standing up is debilitating. Sciatica is not fun.

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 11/11/2025

There are no big spoons. There are no little spoons. There are only, spoons. xkcd.com/3166

SOME PEOPLE
LIKE TO BE THE
BIG SPOON.
SOME PEOPLE
LIKE TO BE THE
LITTLE SPOON.
AND SOME BRAVE TRUTH-
TELLERS POINT OUT THAT
THE METAPHOR MAKES NO
SENSE BECAUSE DIFFERENT-
SIZED SPOONS DON'T NEST
RIGHT EITHER WAY. YOU
NEST SAME-SIZED SPOONS.
...AND APPARENTLY WE
SLEEP ON THE COUCH.
WHY ARE YOU STILL
GOING ON ABOUT
THE SPOON THING?
BECAUSE
I'M RIGHT!

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 10/11/2025

In an attempt to make hardening my mail server and complying with the CIS Benchmarks more straightforward, I switched to nftables. 36 hours later, after intermittently losing IPv6 connectivity, being completed locked out of the server, falling back to the KVM […] [Original post on colquitt.xyz]

000 0

Daniel Colquitt @daniel.colquitt.xyz.ap.brid.gy · 31/10/2025

Pumpkins were painted — happy Halloween! 🎃 💀👻

Pumpkins painted as bb8 and the house from Up!

000 0