Since the advent of gen AI, productivity in the information sector has grown much faster than usual and much faster than the overall economy.

IDEAS is a central index of economics and finance research, including working papers, articles and software code

As of September 2026, more than half of all businesses paid for an artificial intelligence (AI) product or service. Adoption rates jumped after ChatGPT's public launch in late 2022 and have risen steadily since.

IDEAS is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

The spread between AAA corporate bonds and Treasuries has widened since October 2025, suggesting a partial recovery in the Treasury convenience yield.

RePEc is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

Assets backing defined contribution pensions have grown far more than assets backing defined benefit pensions. But the former are also far more volatile.

FRED's new MCP connector directs your AI assistant to the data you need

IDEAS is a central index of economics and finance research, including working papers, articles and software code

## The takeaway When you hear commentary on the federal government’s financial situation, the information is often based on the money flowing into and out of the Treasury general account. ## The US government’s checking account As with any household or business, even the federal government needs an account to handle its bills and receive income from various sources. This account, provided by the Federal Reserve in its role as fiscal agent of the federal government, is called the Treasury general account. Our FRED graph above is updated with the account’s balance every Wednesday. ## Reserves held at the Fed The holdings of the Treasury general account are considered to be reserves at the Fed, equivalent to the reserves that banks hold there. The level of these balances in the general account was initially kept to a minimum to avoid interfering with Fed policy and the handling of reserve requirements. That changed in 2008 with the financial crisis, when it became routine for banks to hold excess reserves at the Fed and earn interest on them. Since then, the Treasury general account has been holding considerable balances, at times over a trillion dollars. There are also notable drawdowns on the balance. When new Treasury bonds are issued through the Fed at an auction, the proceeds land in the account. The balance gets reduced when Treasury bonds are bought back on the market, when the government issues stimulus checks, and when tax rebates turn out to be high. When the balance gets close to zero, it’s often because a debt ceiling is approaching. At times like these, you often hear someone commenting that the federal government will run out of cash at some date. Such forecasts are made by looking at this account, its inflows, and its outflows. **How this graph was created** : Search FRED for and select “Treasury general account.” Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

## The takeaway A new dataset in FRED provides the monthly probability the US economy is in recession. The latest data, for August 2026, show that probability was 0.08%. ## The data FRED has added probability estimates of the US economy being in recession. The dataset comes from RecessionRisk.com and was developed by economists Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. Our FRED graph above shows these monthly median probabilities since January 1980. Probability values range from 0% to 100%, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Because the calculations incorporate timely indicators, these estimates are available on the first business day after the reference month closes. For example, the recession risk value for August 2026 (0.08%) became available on the first business day of September 2026. The shaded areas in the graph represent the start and end dates of recessions reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee. This data visualization feature can be turned on and off in every FRED graph by following the steps described here. ## The interpretation The overlap between the RecessionRisk.com data and the NBER data is generally close. The timing of spikes in the estimated probability of recession broadly coincide with the dates announced by the NBER for turning points in the US business cycle from expansion to contraction. (That is, _the occurrence of recessions_.) However, several probability spikes, such as the ones around October 1998 and March 2023, did not develop into actual recessions. ## The methodology The probability estimates are calculated using a statistical model that combines two indicators. The first measures broad economic conditions, and the second measures financial market stress: * Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which is a survey of business conditions * The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) reported by the European Central Bank, which tracks stress across bond, equity, money, foreign exchange, and financial intermediary markets Details about the methodologies are available here. **How this graph was created** : Search FRED for and select “Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate.” Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

IDEAS is a central index of economics and finance research, including working papers, articles and software code

In a previous FRED Blog post, we discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC this past June. In this blog post, we again use ALFRED to compare the latest set of projections released in September 2026 with several recent projections for the unemployment rate, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, real GDP growth, and the federal funds rate. It is important to note that these projections represent neither a committee plan nor a binding decision on future policy. Our first ALFRED graph, above, shows the median projection for the unemployment rate for the fourth quarters of 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2029. This latest set of projections is the first to include 2029, as every September the FOMC adds another year to the SEP. Most recently, as shown by the gold bar, the median FOMC participant projects that the unemployment rate will average 4.1% in Q4 2026 and remain at that level through Q4 2029. This is slightly below the median projections from June. Our second graph shows the median projection for core PCE inflation over the same period. The median FOMC participant projects 3.4% core PCE inflation over 2026, with a return to the long-run inflation target of 2% by 2029. Our third graph shows the median projections for real GDP growth. For 2026, real GDP growth was revised up from 2.2% in June to 2.3% in September, still shy of the 2.4% projected in March. The projection for real GDP growth in 2027 is slightly higher than it was in both March and June, revised up from 2.3% to 2.4%. Looking further ahead, the median projection for 2028 matches June’s result of 2.2% while the initial projection for 2029 stands at 2.1%, suggesting the Committee anticipates growth converging toward its longer-run trend of 2.0% Our final graph shows the median participant’s projections of the federal funds rate. You may notice that the blue bar depicts the September 2025 vintage. This is because the SEP projections for the federal funds rate in December 2025 were exactly the same as the September 2025 vintage. As of the September 2026 SEP, the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of this year is 4.1%, where it remains in 2027 before falling to 3.9% by year-end 2028. These projections are higher than those in June by 0.3 percentage points this year and 0.5 percentage points in both 2027 and 2028. The fourth quarter projection for 2029 stands at 3.6%. It’s worth noting that focusing on the median federal funds rate projection can obscure the dispersion of the individual participant projections. For example, projections for the 2029 year-end policy rate range from 2.9% to 3.9%. **How these graphs were created** : Search ALFRED for “FOMC unemployment” and take the median projection. Click on “Edit Graph,” choose a bar graph, and add three bars with the same series again. Finally, select the proper vintage for each bar. Change the dates to 2026-01-01 to 2029-01-01. For the other graphs, proceed similarly with “FOMC PCE core,” “FOMC GDP,” and “FOMC federal funds rate.” Suggested by Rehann Silvanus and Kathleen Navin.

Company Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a leader in bringing Federal Reserve history to the world. We are committed to preserving the history of the Federal Reserve and its policy actions, and making that history accessible to educators, students, researchers, and the general public through our websites, publications, educational materials and conferences. Job Summary The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis seeks a professional who will initiate and collaborate on Bank and System initiatives in Federal Reserve history, archives, education, and research. The principal responsibilities may include: Produce content for FederalReserveHistory.org (https://www.federalreservehistory.org/) Identify content gaps and prioritize additions and changes to the website Coordinate with other website authors on topics, and provide editorial review of essays written by other authors Collaborate with FRASER (https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/) digital library staff to identify potential collections for digitization and help inform FRASER priorities Lead or serve on System committees and workgroups devoted to preserving Federal Reserve history, including the Committee on Historical Preservation Speak to professional, educational, and general audiences about the Fed and its history Participate in relevant professional networks and conferences, connect with other historians of the Federal Reserve, and stay current with best practices in the field Collaborate with economic education staff to develop educational resources on the history of the Federal Reserve and its actions Collaborate with Bank and System archivists on current issues with Federal Reserve archives and preservation Required Qualifications Ph.D. or master’s in economics or related disciplines Knowledge of the Federal Reserve, its purposes and functions, structure, and history Excellent written and oral communication and presentation skills Demonstrated professional research skills Organizational savvy and agility, initiative, and the ability to work both independently and in teams Preferred Qualifications Professional visibility and an active research agenda reflected in publications in professional peer-reviewed academic journals and conference presentations. The role is preferably based at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank alongside the core team, though candidates reporting to another Federal Reserve main district location will be considered. Compensation, rank and expectations will be commensurate with the successful candidate’s qualifications and experience. Total Rewards Bring your passion and expertise, and we'll provide the opportunities to challenge you and propel your growth—along with multiple benefits and perks that support your health, wealth, and life. In addition to competitive compensation, we offer a comprehensive benefits package all brought together in a flexible work environment where you can find balance: Medical (4 options), Prescription, Dental (3 options), and Vision Insurance with no waiting period 401k/Thrift Plan with generous employer match Employer-funded Pension Plan Paid Vacation/Sick Time and Holidays Flexible Spending Accounts and Healthcare Spending Accounts Life Insurance and Long Term Disability Insurance Tuition Reimbursement (undergraduate and graduate) Parental Leave Free onsite 24/7 Fitness Center including training classes, and locker room / shower facilities Onsite Cafeteria and Coffee Shop Additional Convenience Benefits, Discounts and More… At the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we are committed to a strong and resilient economy for all. We prioritize inclusion and strive to be a workplace where all employees can thrive. Learn more about Bank's culture. The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis is an Equal Opportunity Employer. #LI-Onsite Full Time / Part Time Full time Regular / Temporary Regular Job Exempt (Yes / No) Yes Job Category Economics/Research Family Group Work Shift First (United States of America) The Federal Reserve Banks are committed to equal employment opportunity for employees and job applicants in compliance with applicable law and to an environment where employees are valued for their differences. Always verify and apply to jobs on Federal Reserve System Careers (https://rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS) or through verified Federal Reserve Bank social media channels. Privacy Notice OUR BANK has one of the most recognizable brands around the world. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States—one of the world's most influential, trusted and prestigious financial organizations. The Federal Reserve is charged with the important mission of promoting a strong economy and a stable financial system and fulfills this responsibility by formulating national monetary policy, supervising and regulating banks and bank holding companies, and providing financial services for banks and the U.S. government. OUR PEOPLE are diverse in background and ideas, which allows for ongoing creativity and innovation. Ultimately, they are the ones who push our high-performance, exchange-driven culture forward. Why Our People Choose Us: Our reputation precedes us There will always be room for personal growth Our people are first You’ll find the right balance Your responsibilities will be meaningful We hope that you will be our future colleague. Always verify and apply to jobs on Federal Reserve System Careers or through verified Federal Reserve Bank social media channels. Please check back later for more information on available job opportunities.

## The takeaway The Kansas City Fed uses options prices to measure how financial markets perceive the balance of risks for future short-term interest rates: a.k.a., the KC Policy Rate Skew. ## The data Options are publicly traded financial instruments that reflect expectations about future economic conditions. The Kansas City Fed uses options prices to create their daily index of how financial markets perceive the balance of risks, or “skew,” to short-term U.S. interest rates one year in the future. Our FRED graph above shows the value of this “KC PRS” index over the past five years, although daily data in FRED are available as far back as April 3, 1989. FYI, the KC PRS is constructed with the same methodology as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Skew Index (Cboe Skew) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s options data. ## The interpretation Although the ups and downs of the KC PRS don’t match the expansions and contractions of the business cycle, research from the KC Fed indicates that this index tends to lead (i.e., occur ahead of) the cyclical patterns in interest rates A positive value of the KC PRS index indicates financial markets believe interest rates are more likely to end up higher than projected, whereas a negative value suggests rates could end up lower than projected. Between mid-September 2022 and late March 2026, the index generally showed values below zero. Between early 2026 and the time of this writing, it has averaged values above zero. **How this graph was created** : Go to FRED and search for “Kansas City Fed’s Policy Rate Skew.” To plot the data over the past five years, click on the “5Y” link above the graph’s canvas. Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

IDEAS is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

Central index of economics institutions (academic, governmental and non-profit) organized by country and US state.

## The takeaway The Fed’s monetary aggregates measure the amount of money in the economy. One such measure is M2, which includes liquid assets such as checking accounts but excludes non-liquid assets such as individual retirement accounts. ## What is M2? M2 measures how much money is readily available in the economy. That is, funds easily converted to cash. As of June 2026, M2 amounted to $23 trillion. Our FRED graph above shows the components of M2: * M1 in blue, which itself includes cash and checking and savings accounts * Small-denomination time deposits in green * Retail money market funds in brown * The total value of individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh retirement account balances, in purple, is subtracted from this measure. These funds carry large penalties for preretirement withdrawals and, therefore, aren’t considered liquid. ## Recent changes Surveys by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in recent years show that a growing share of IRA and Keogh balances held at depository institutions now sit in savings and checking-type accounts, rather than in small-denomination time deposits or in retail money market funds. Starting July 28, 2026, these IRA and Keogh balances have been subtracted from the _total value_ of M2, rather than from the _individual values_ of the small-denomination time deposits and retail money market funds. This had almost no impact on the total value of M2, but it did result in the recalculation of those two components. ## Graph these changes ALFRED stores vintages of FRED data and allows you to see the historical values of both small-denomination time deposits and retail money market funds before and after this reporting changes. Both data series now show higher values. ## More details M2 data come from the Fed’s H.6 statistical release, Money Stock Measures, published weekly by the Federal Reserve Board. Keep up with their announcements here. What about that orange area in the graph? It shows saving deposits. As of April 2020, this component was reclassified from a category of M2 into M1, so our graph doesn’t show the value past that date. Learn more about this regulatory change here. **How this graph was created** : Search FRED for “M1.” Click the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Small-Denomination Time Deposits: Total.” Don’t forget to click “Add data series.” Repeat this last step to search for and add the other two series: “Retail Money Market Funds” and “IRA and Keogh Accounts: Total.” Next, use the “Select Area” dropdown menu to customize “Line 4 – IRA and Keogh Accounts” by typing the formula _-a_ and clicking on “Apply Formula.” Last, select the “Format” panel to pick “Graph type: Area” and “Stacking: Normal.” Suggested by Maria Arias and Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

IDEAS is a central index of economics and finance research, including working papers, articles and software code

IDEAS is a central index of economics and finance research, including working papers, articles and software code

## The takeaway The New York Fed’s consumer credit dataset is now calculated with a different methodology—one that includes 33 million more borrowers than before. ## The Consumer Credit Panel With a data update on August 10, 2026, the New York Fed has changed the way it measures subprime credit risk in their Consumer Credit Panel, moving from the old/discontinued methodology of Equifax Risk Score 3.0 to the new methodology of Vantage Score 4.0. Our FRED map above shows, for each U.S. county, the percent of the resident population with a credit score below 660 in Q4 of 2025—again, with data from the revised version of their Consumer Credit Panel. The New York Fed advises users to “exercise caution when comparing credit score distribution changes from 2025:Q4 to 2026:Q1, as differences may reflect the change in scoring model rather than changes in borrower credit quality.” ## Comparing the old and new measures We can use our archival ALFRED database to compare the data vintages of the new Vantage Score 4.0 methodology with the vintages of the old/discontinued Equifax Risk Score 3.0 methodology. The graph shows the data for New York County (i.e., Manhattan). Clearly, these percentages are substantially lower now than they had been. For example, the current subprime share of 17.72% (blue line, for Q4 2025) had been 30.27% (green line, for Q4 2025) before the methodology was revised. ## What changed, exactly? Vantage Score 4.0 is a credit-scoring model that uses a broader set of personal finance information details than the Equifax Risk Score 3.0 it replaced. By casting a broader scoring net, 33 million additional borrowers that previously were unscored are now factored into the calculations of subprime lenders as a fraction of overall populations. And, in a fraction, when the denominator rises more than the numerator, the resulting ratio falls. Read more from the New York Fed about this switch in methodology and its potential implications for analysts and researchers. **How the FRED map and ALFRED graphs were created** : For the map, search FRED for and select “Equifax Subprime Credit Population for New York County, NY.” Click on “View Map” and select the date “2025-10-01.” For the graph: Search ALFRED for and select “Equifax Subprime Credit Population for New York County, NY.” Click on “Edit Graph” and select the “Format” tab. Use the dropdown menu to select “Graph Type: Line.” Last, adjust the date range by clicking on the “Max” option above the graph canvas. Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

IDEAS is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

## The takeaway Measures of household financial well-being don’t always align with consumer sentiment. You can feel relatively secure about your finances while still being pessimistic about the overall economy. ## Are you doing OK? In an earlier post, we described a measure of household financial well-being from the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). In this post, we add a way to measure households’ view of the economy: the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. Our FRED graph above tracks, side by side, the share of adults who say they’re “doing okay financially” from the SHED and the index values of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, these two measures moved in the same direction. The share of adults doing at least okay financially increased, while consumer sentiment was also relatively high. The story looks different after the pandemic. Consumer sentiment fell sharply and remains low: Its value averaged 95.9 in 2019 and was 71.7 in January 2025. The share of adults saying they’re doing at least okay, though, has remained relatively high: It was 75% in 2019 and it was 73% in 2025. There seems to be a disconnect. Most respondents continue to report financial stability while overall consumer sentiment is much more pessimistic than it was before the pandemic. ## Are you worse off today? The SHED also asks a more specific question: Are you worse off financially than you were 12 months ago? Our second FRED graph, above, compares this measure with the same Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. (We plot 100 minus the percentage so that an increase in one series is consistent with a increase in the other.) Here, the two measures tell a more similar story. Before the pandemic, the share of adults reporting they were _not_ worse off than they were a year earlier was increasing. After the pandemic, that share dropped sharply and has remained low. Measured this way, households’ assessments of their own finances are more consistent with the decline in overall consumer sentiment. The difference between the two SHED measures may partly reflect what each question is asking. Saying you’re doing okay financially describes your current financial position. Saying you’re worse off than a year ago describes how that position has changed. It’s not hard to imagine a household reporting both these things at the same time. It’s also possible that financial experiences have become more uneven across households, with some households doing relatively well while others have seen their financial situations deteriorate, consistent with the divergence of the two SHED measures. And there’s another possibility. People may feel relatively secure about their _own_ finances while still being pessimistic about the economy _overall_. The SHED explicitly asks about respondents’ own financial situations. The Michigan index is broader, incorporating views about personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. That leaves room for a disconnect between how people assess their own circumstances and how they assess economic conditions more generally. The graphs don’t tell us exactly what’s driving the difference, but they show people’s assessments of their own finances can look quite different from their assessments of the broader economy. **How the graphs were created** : For the first graph, search FRED for and select “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking: At Least Doing Okay Financially: All Adults” (series ID ATLEASTDOINGOKAYFINANCIAL). Click “Edit Graph,” click “Add Line,” and search for and select “University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment” (series ID UMCSENT). Click “Add Data Series.” Next, select the University of Michigan series under “Edit Lines” and open the “Format” tab. Set its y-axis position to “Right.” Set this graph to begin on January 1, 2013. and end on January 1, 2025, corresponding to the first and last years, respectively, available for this SHED measure. For the second graph, repeat the same steps, replacing the first SHED series with “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking: Worse Off Financially Than 12 Months Ago: All Adults” (series ID WORSEOFFFINANCIALLYALLADU). For this series, enter _100-a_ in the formula field. Again, add UMCSENT as the second line and place it on the right y-axis. Set this graph to begin on January 1, 2014, and end on January 1, 2025, corresponding to the first and last years, respectively, available for this SHED measure. Suggested by Victoria Gregory.

IDEAS is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

## The takeaway The most recent measure of the cost of owning a home (vs. renting a home) remains near historical peaks, suggesting renting today is a relatively better financial choice for housing. ## To own or not to own? Which is the better financial choice—owning or renting your home? The FRED Blog has discussed how the cost of owning a home and the cost of renting a home tend to move together. An indexed ratio of house prices to rents helps show their relative values more clearly and, by extension, can help examine the value of one choice over the other. A high ratio means house prices are growing faster than rents, making homeownership a relatively more expensive proposition. A lower ratio means buying a home is a comparatively better deal. ## The data Researchers at the Dallas Fed used price index data for homeownership and renting to create an index that shows the rapid rise of homeownership costs in 2020 and the high values since then. Our FRED graph above allows us to approximate their ratio and track the relative cost of owning a home from first quarter 1975 to first quarter 2026. Here we use two different price indexes to create our ratio of house prices to rents: the all-transactions house price index from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency and the CPI for rents from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both indexes were “re-based” to a value of 100 in January 2015. Our index shows a rapid rise and continued high values of homeownership cost, similar to what the Dallas Fed research showed. ## Deeper analysis The report from the Dallas Fed uses both U.S. and international data to identify patterns and the likely future evolution of an elevated house price-to-rent ratio. It concludes that “Rents rise along with inflation, while nominal house-price growth trails inflation. On an inflation-adjusted basis, rents change very little, but house prices fall sharply.” In this homeownership costs ratio, the numerator is house prices and the denominator is rent prices. The ratio will become smaller if the numerator falls or the denominator rises. Because inflation increases rent prices relatively more than house prices, higher inflation would drive the ratio down, closer to its historical average. **How this graph was created** : Search FRED for and select the series “All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States.” Click “Edit Graph,” use “Customize data” to search for “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Rent of primary residence,” and click “Add.” Input the formula _a/b_ and click “Apply.” Suggested by Houston Myer and Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

RePEc is an initiative created by economists for economists in 1997. It functions primarily as a bibliographic tool, but it also collects various linked metadata about economists, their institutions,

## The takeaway More workers are using generative AI tools, using them more often, and saving more time because of them, according to new survey data in FRED. ## The survey Economists Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David Deming built the Generative Artificial Intelligence Adoption Tracker using data from the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS). The RPS is a nationally representative online survey of working-age adults aged 18 to 64. Each quarter, employed respondents report how fast and how intensely they’re adopting AI technology both at work and outside of work. ## The data Our FRED graph above shows three data series from the generative AI adoption tracker: “Use Last Week for Work” (solid blue line), “Work Hours Assisted” (dashed green line), and “Time Savings” (dashed orange line)—all measured as a percent of employed adults (left axis) or percent of work hours (right axis). All three lines trend steadily upward. The share of employed adults who used generative AI for work in the past week grew from 28.2% in Q3 2024 to 39.2% by Q2 2026, indicating adoption is broadening. The share of work hours assisted by generative AI grew from 4.1% to 6.3% over roughly the same stretch. Perhaps most importantly, the share of work hours saved thanks to AI assistance grew from 1.6% to 2.2%. ## The summary The information is based on how respondents self-report their “time saved,” so the measurements are inherently approximate. But these three data series together do tell a coherent story of AI adoption: More workers are trying generative AI, and the ones already using it are leaning on it more heavily. Rising time savings suggest AI is not just a novelty; it’s starting to free up real work hours. If this trend holds, generative AI could show up in broader productivity statistics in the years ahead. **How this graph was created** : Search FRED for “Generative Artificial Intelligence, Use Last Week for Work: Employed Adults.” Click “Edit Graph” and select the “Add Line” tab. Search for “Generative Artificial Intelligence, Work Hours Assisted: Employed Adults” and click “Add Data Series.” Repeat the last step to search for and add “Generative Artificial Intelligence, Time Savings: Employed Adults.” Select the “Format” tab to customize line 2 and line 3 by selecting “Y-Axis position: Right.” Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

IDEAS is a central index of economics research, including working papers, articles and software code

EconAcademics.org is a blog aggregator for economics research