SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 04/06/2025At this point, where would we draw a line between a shelf cloud and a wall cloud? A lot of it is semantics really, but interesting topic nonetheless 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 02/06/2025Not at all actually, my obsession kicked off before I could even remember(which seems unusual these days?) 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Cold front probably lifted out that warm nose and shear increased rougly to 300m2/s2 0-1SRH! 100
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Further north and west, closer to the low, weaker mid level winds will be present, yielding for lower SRI and smaller updrafts. Further south and east in the zone with higher winds, stronger SRI and somewhat larger updrafts may develop, leading to potentially stronger tornadoes. 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 18/03/2025The level of destabilization will depend on the extent of daytime heating in this area. Assuming HRRR is correct, very strong low level instability would develop and bring a pretty decent chance of tornadoes. It is one of the more impressive cold core setups I have seen. 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Pretty solid cold-core setup in northern and eastern Illinois tomorrow. Impressive moisture return will allow for low to mid 50s F dewpoints in northern/eastern Illinois. On top of this moisture plume, ~-20C temperatures will allow for strong low and mid level lapse rates to develop. 132
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 13/03/2025Is there a particular reason why HRRR(rather the entire ARW core in general) tends to overmix? 100
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 09/03/2025An ensemble breaking a pressure record 6 days out is a feat by itself 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 07/03/2025When was the last time all ensembles across the board had such a deep low this far out? 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 04/03/2025Seeing the cold front interacting with the smoke plume is very interesting! 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 03/03/2025I believed that without the EML/warm nose on 2/26 being as strong as it was, the tornado threat would have been much weaker. This event is much different since the EML is much weaker and it’s firing after dark and along a NE/SW oriented cold front, so it’s a very difficult forecast. 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 02/03/2025Destabilization may be a concern as the convection fires only 2-3 hours after the prior convection moves through, but given a potent dry slot it should allow for at least some destabilization. 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 02/03/2025A coldcore-ish setup will be in place in the TX panhandle/SW OK tomorrow. Despite the lack of quality moisture, morning convection will allow for higher moisture amounts in the area. A very convergent/vorticious zone will allow for some tornado potential for supercells that form. 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 28/02/2025I wonder how the ones who release the weather balloons every morning and evening are doing, I’m worried on what is to come 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 24/02/2025I feel Waldo is not talked about aa much as it should be. Photogenic rope/wedge, hitting nothing, and with a pretty unique environment 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 22/02/2025-very unstable airmass along/near the dryline, yet storms were still having outflow dominance issues. Perhaps it was the somewhat weak low-level shear and/or the almost SSWerly surface winds? 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 22/02/2025This only makes me wonder even more why something like May 6 underperformed; my impression this entire time to why May 6 didn't do much was that you needed that very moist airmass right along the dryline, as many large synoptic plains outbreaks have. This one instead had that somewhat dry but- 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 18/02/2025Water Vapor imagery depicts much higher water vapor in NW OK and the TX panhandle. This mass is moving east and will be impacting us OKC/Norman folks soon, probably in the form of a mix/snow. 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Although the majority consensus is steadily trending toward the NAM, they still have a less significant severe event due to displacement of mid level flow and diffluence from the warm sector. HRRR wind profiles show a lack of mid level shear across the warm sector, and more veered profiles. 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Currently, the NAM model has a much more potent shortwave across Arkansas. There’s much more diffluence across the northern edge of the warm sector compared to other models(HRRR, GFS, EURO), in which case would raise the severe and tornado threat. 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 14/02/2025Tomorrow has a pretty intriguing severe setup; a very strong low level atop an unstable (~1k J/kg CAPE) airmass. It is currently unclear on the extent of the warm sector and the geometry of the system, but a change in these factors could greatly impact the severe risk. 121
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 11/02/2025Andy Wade's temperature verification website is wonderful for this! 020
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 11/02/2025I wish there were more severe wx posts over here. One of the only reasons why I still look at twitter 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 11/02/2025I guess we could also see freeze fog Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the central OK depending on how temperatures evolve, but not so sure. 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 11/02/2025Looking at the GFS and HRRR this setup looks VERY fragile. Both are hovering within 1-2C of freezing so any small change could change the outcome substantially. Even if no freezing rain occurs for the OKC area, when temperatures drop overnight any wet areas could easily freeze. 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 05/02/2025Correct; shampoo has instructions for a reason, unfortunately 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 04/02/2025Also side note, DDC's 12z sounding had a -4.0C/km 0-3km lapse rate. Assuming SPC sounding climatology is absolutely correct(which I know it isn't 100% correct), it would be the lowest lapse rate recorded for DDC. 011
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 04/02/2025Temperatures have massively been colder than predicted today behind the cold front; here in Norman, temperatures were forecasted in the upper 40s and low 50s, yet temperatures never exceeded 38F! 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 04/02/2025Man I love ridges with downsloping this time of year. Brings out the best conditions 000
Reposted by SamuelGVictor Alejandro Alvarez Vega @victoralvarez.bsky.social · 03/12/2024I took on this challenge and after endless hours of research and experimentation, I want to share the technical journey of our solution in the below Medium article. medium.com/@victoraalva...medium.comDesigning a Serverless Backend for Data Processing with Event-Driven Vector TilingA little over two months ago today, data processing operations on Aguacero were stopped as we initiated our migration to Amazon Web… 142
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 07/11/2024A sneaky severe weather setup is happening tonight in the San Angelo area, very streamwise low level profiles and very strong deep layer shear will lead to a tornado risk. Low level instability is prevalent, but weak low level lapse rates and very moist profiles may lead to more-precip loaded RFDs. 050
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024Supercells going up on the dryline, with a potent one near Dresden, KS already producing lightning. Shows that destabilization has succeeded, but the question now is how wide the instability axis is. May see tor genesis within the next hour with the Dresden cell, with the sign of rotation on radar. 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024I was more referring to an overlay but the non supercell tornado parameter sorta does the job! 010
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024CU beginning to bubble up, and dewpoints entering the high 50s-low 60s. Clouds are beginning to clear; destabilization is likely ongoing, although the extent will be uncertain. As usual with dryline events, initiation may be 1-2 hours earlier than modelled. 040
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024We need a product on SPC mesoanalysis which includes 3cape/surface vorticity/0-3km lapse rates 110
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024There is a wide range of possible solutions for today. Some include similar outcomes to high end cold core esque days, and some include absolutely nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised with either. 210
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024If supercells manage to stay within the unstable airmass, several tornadoes are possible. I won't be surprised to see a mini tornado outbreak, but I also would not be surprised to see nothing at all. 030
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024As they continue east, destabilization should begin along the dryline. My current concern isn't to do with the level of destabilization, moreso the width of the instability axis. 140
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024Today there is a cold core-ish setup across N KS and S NE. There is a risk of tornadoes, but as with every cold core setup, there are concerns on destabilization. As of 15z, There is scattered cloud cover with showers across central KS. (Continued) 160
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024I only see a 2% tornado risk? Although I do see a possibility at an upgrade in the future 100
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 21/10/2024Yes, although I don’t see much talk about severe weather analysis in real time at all. There are a few posts now and then, but otherwise, very little. I do attempt some analysis myself, but I think we need more analysis here. 000
SamuelG @cyclovort1.bsky.social · 19/10/2024Today looks like a decent severe day for severe storms and possibly tornadoes. An outflow boundary from previous storms exists in NE NM, and may act as a psuedo-warm front for storms later today. This OFB may back winds further and inflate hodographs some, allowing for enhanced tornado potential. 050
