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Claas Voelcker

@cvoelcker.bsky.social
2.8K followers 572 following 1.1K posts

For professional, see cvoelcker.de If I seem very angry, check if I have been watered in the last 24 hours. Now 🇺🇸 flavoured, previously available in 🇨🇦 and 🇩🇪

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Reposted by Claas Voelcker
Queer in AI @queerinai.com · 08/10/2026
Queer in AI is hiring a postdoctoral researcher or research scientist! Join us and help build queer power over AI and data systems: www.queerinai.com/research-sci...
queerinai.com
Research Scientist Position at Queer in AI — Queer in AI
Queer in AI team is looking for a research lead (similar to a postdoc position). The Postdoctoral Researcher / Research Scientist will lead research at Queer in AI, accelerating research at the inters...
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Sophisticated verbiage does not make one, ipso facto, appear eloquent and cerebral. Quite contrary, perchance it may make one seem ... claudish... (This comment is brought to you by Grading Claas)
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I still think that with some of these results, we underestimate the opportunity costs of the money pouring into A moonshot efforts. That money could also be used to solve similar problems in different ways, with other side benefits like education.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Maybe I should read thinks before I start posting thoughts on social media 🤔 NO, that seems ludicrous!
static.klipy.com
The Simpsons: Principal Skinner - Am I Out of Touch?
ALT: The Simpsons: Principal Skinner - Am I Out of Touch?
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Reposted by Claas Voelcker
Eugene Vinitsky 🍒 @eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Once again, if you are a senior researcher spreading doom to junior researchers, shut up shut up shut up. It’s your job to figure out a path forward, even in high uncertainty times. Come back when you have something constructive.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Were they just a single call? I thought this was big agent swarms again.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I think an important question to ask with any new AI research result now is: "What would the output have been if you had given the resources (just the money, not the model) to a few math departments and had them hire some good grad students." Economy is about efficiency, not just outcomes.
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Reposted by Claas Voelcker
Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
📣 The difference between replicable and not replicable is not itself scientifically replicable. 📣 New work with Erkan Buzbas, showing that verdicts such as "X% of results replicated" are based on an inferential machinery that doesn't work. arxiv.org/abs/2604.26268
Screenshot of a paper's title page. Title: "The Difference Between 'Replicable' and 'Not replicable' is not Itself Scientifically Replicable". Authors: Berna Devezer and Erkan O. Buzbas, both at the University of Idaho — Devezer in the Department of Business and the Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation, Buzbas in the Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science. Authors contributed equally. Corresponding author: bdevezer@uidaho.edu.
Abstract: Replication studies estimate the replicability rate of scientific results by aggregating binary verdicts of experiments. Exact replications are rarely attainable, so most replication sequences are non-exact. Experiments differ in ways that matter and do not share a single common data-generating process. We formalize two statistical interpretations of this non-exactness. In a shared latent rate model (benchmark), experiments are exchangeable and depend on a common random replicability rate. In a conditionally independent rates model (operational), each experiment has its own replicability rate drawn independently from a population distribution. Under the shared latent rate model, even small variability among replicability rates induces an irreducible variance floor on the estimated mean replicability rate that cannot be eliminated by adding more replications. Under the conditionally independent rates model, the degree of non-exactness is not identifiable from standard replication data, because one binary verdict per experiment contains no information about between-experiment heterogeneity. Researchers therefore cannot tell which precision regime they are operating in or whether high- and low-replicability sequences can be distinguished in principle. As a result, the usual data structure of one binary verdict per experiment cannot support reliable demarcation between "replicable" and "not replicable" results and systematically understates uncertainty, making high- and low-replicability sequences appear discrim…
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I don't doubt that they exist. I'm just wondering how large the percentage is. I'm worried that the community is focusing on outliers without addressing other, more foundational reasons for the growth in papers.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
All the stats I have seen so far really do point at the latter. Very few people out there are slop-generating papers en masse (they mostly just slop-generate 1-2)
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Are submissions really driven by "supersubmitters" or mostly by more people submitting? Conference data has mostly shown the latter to be the majority driver of increase. I'd be very interested what arXiv data shows!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This is a true-to-life recreation of my husband's reaction to the holiday
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Check out the call for contributions, and our best data awards 🏆🎁 at 🤖 workshop.oopsie-data.com 🤖
workshop.oopsie-data.com
Oops, I Erred — Collecting, Curating and Using Imperfect Data for Realistic Scenarios
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
⏰ More time to submit! ⏰ We hope your drafts are getting into shape and we got good news! The #oopsiedata workshop @ #CoRL2026 🤖 deadline is now October 5th. Polish up your work and send it our way! We are looking forward to all the excellent submissions!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Happy Raccoon Appreciation Day for all you non detached-home-owners out there!
static.klipy.com
Benito the Funny Raccoon
ALT: Benito the Funny Raccoon
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
At this point "I know how openreview and paperplaza work" should be the qualifications for instant hire as a faculty.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Cries in academese
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Reposted by Claas Voelcker
David Gleich @dgleich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I’m annoyed by all the academics stressing “quality over quantity” as a tonic for the LLM deluge of results / crap. People have been saying this for years. Either setup a compact with some language on putting this in hiring documents/recommendations/etc. or stop saying it.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The major open question of our times remains: will we go down the Path of Dune, or the Path of 40k? Either way, expect more and exciting confrontations between the Catholics and AI
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Charles Nelson Reilly's 'Boring' Moment
ALT: Charles Nelson Reilly's 'Boring' Moment
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We always stop at the boring ones! Why not Guncle of AI, weird step-brother of AI, 2nd Cousin twice removed of AI, my great-aunt's lady friend who lived with her in the same room in the 50s of AI
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Why do people submit a paper to be presented at multiple workshops, even after the paper has been presented before?
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
We are academics because we reject the bourgeois oppression of office clothing styles! (This is brought to you by the postdoc who gets called overdressed because he always wears a shirt and refuses to put on shorts)
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Now
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Why is university teaching always structured badly? None of the faculty resources I have access to have any tips and lessons learned on actually running the classes! It's only about the bureaucracy!!!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Opus 5.5 is actually nice to work with ngl
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is mostly true!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I have finally been convinced to up my p(doom)
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
WHY IS THIS SO GOOOOOD!?
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Survey question: What is the point of a scientific paper?! Please write down anything and everything that comes to mind
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'd love to DM you a secondary piece of evidence that I'm relying on here that I can't share too publicly, but you can't be DMed ;)
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Tenure and grant considerations just don't seem like sufficient explanations for the surging number of people pushing into this system. They are definitely also a part of this, but I don't think there is enough professors for this to explain the largest pieces of the puzzle
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I also really want to stress that I am not judging anybody for any of this! I'm simply trying to come up with a coherent hypothesis where our current paper submission numbers come from, and an economic hypothesis is the most convincing to me. I'm not saying anybody is wrong in doing this!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I actually think "high paying industry job" is the primary driver, visa questions are often just a necessary secondary component to those as high-paying jobs are concentrated in a few countries. Still, having a reliable pathway to PR is a massively important factor for many non-westerners.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Obviously this is going to be impossible to get numbers on, but absolutely, a lot do. People have consistently told me that this is a significant factor in the decision making process for them.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I should have said a primary pathway for immigration, not the primary pathway, I don't have sufficient numbers to support this. But I regularly advise students on where to do a PhD and job market and immigration questions pretty much always come up.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Immigration has been a primary driver for PhD applications in NA universities for a while, it was openly discussed 5 years ago at the University of Toronto for example.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
H1B is defunct, J1 and F1 are only student visas, and Ls have secondary requirements like already working for the company that moves you. Higher education _is_ the primary pathway of immigration for smart people into the west and has been for years now. This isn't even a US specific phenomenon.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I mean, I also tell that to all the students, but I'm not sure the message is sticking :D In addition, PhD is still de facto necessary for a lot of immigration pathways, especially in the US
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I don't think academia is the core driver of submissions here, there are just too few tenure-track academics submitting to these conferences.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
One unstated assumption here: the vast majority of people start a PhD to get a high-paying industry research job. This has been broadly true among students and peers I have talked to in the last few years.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Again, the volume of papers does not seem to stem from a small number of authors submitting a lot of slop, it's mostly caused by a legitimate increase in the number of people who are seeking to publish to get a foot in the door.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
While this may be true it is definitely not the perception in the student body! And a PhD position is still a door opener, both through specialized industry contacts and due to how immigration systems are designed.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I think the interesting part of the issue is that a huge part of the paper submissions are created by people wanting to break into the corpos, as this has been a semi-reliable pathway in the past. The problem is not industry submitting papers, it's hiring based on authorship.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Is something actually wrong, or is it pent-up grief. The answer is always #2 www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-Dh...
youtube.com
Die Toten Hosen // Nur zu Besuch [Offizielles Musikvideo]
YouTube video by DIE TOTEN HOSEN
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'm not sure what you mean by denialism?
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'm saying they are publishing really valuable results still (because they have the resources and talent) but over the years have become less willing to share their insights. This was acknowledging that we still want their papers, but that we are also seeing that these papers are becoming more rare.
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Pretty much this, people make bad unsubstantiated vibe-based suggestions in the reply. Almost all of them are some flavour of "limit contributions per author" which wouldn't really move the needle much
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It’s the job market!!!!
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Claas Voelcker @cvoelcker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
If you want my own opinion btw, I think we need to make it really really really hard to get a paper in. Require a 20 page submission, meticulous statistical analysis, theoretical results and empirical scaling. It should take a lab of very good people a year again to write a paper.
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