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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 3h

A new power axis may be forming in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia needs the sea. Somaliland needs recognition and security. Israel needs a foothold at the southern gateway to the Red Sea. If these interests converge, the regional balance could shift. www.controlthreat.org/p/could-isra...

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Could Israel, Ethiopia, and Somaliland Build a New Power Axis in the Horn of Africa?

Ethiopia has vast territory but no coastline.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 6h

May 1968 was a major social uprising in France that began with students and spread to around 10 million workers going on strike. It did not overthrow the government, but it created a powerful tradition: Youth taking to the streets can force the state to respond.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Why can a dispute over schools turn into mass protests in France? French students have a protest tradition stretching back to May 1968. Movements in 1986, 1994 and 2006 forced governments to withdraw or change major policies. This generation knows the street can sometimes work.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Bastille became a flashpoint. French police used water cannon and tear gas after clashes broke out with protesters in Paris on October 8. About 24,500 people protested in Paris. Nationwide, 504 people were arrested and 48 police officers and gendarmes were injured.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Will Beijing try to reach the new White House press secretary? Katie Zacharia once had professional ties in China. Now that she is in the White House, will China try to exploit those connections?

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Was the new White House press secretary ever approached by Beijing? During her two years living and working in China, was Katie Zacharia ever targeted for influence? There is currently no public evidence that she was.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Why did Trump choose someone who once lived and worked in Beijing as the White House's voice? Katie Zacharia was an associate at Zhong Lun, a major Chinese law firm. That does not mean she worked for China's government, but her Beijing past deserves scrutiny.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 7h

Trump has put a longtime MAGA loyalist behind the White House podium. He named conservative commentator Katie Zacharia press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt. Trump called her a “loyal and brilliant supporter.” AP and Reuters confirm the appointment.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 18h

Eritrea may have just handed Ethiopia the pretext Addis Ababa needed to move closer to the Red Sea. If Eritrean troops crossed the border, Ethiopia can invoke self defence and turn sea access from a strategic ambition into a military objective.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The EU wants to weaken Hezbollah by strengthening Lebanon’s army. Kaja Kallas says planning for a new EU mission is complete to train and advise Lebanon’s army and security forces. EU ministers are expected to approve it on Oct. 12.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Israel does not just want to sell weapons. Production in Morocco gives Israeli firms a base near Europe and African markets, access to local supply chains and another platform for exports.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Morocco does not want to remain just an arms buyer. Joint production with Israel brings technology, trains local engineers, enables domestic weapons production and reduces import dependence.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Israel gets something concrete too. Morocco gives it an open Arab partner, deeper reach into North Africa and Africa, and security ties next to Algeria, a country with no diplomatic relations with Israel.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Israel also strengthens Morocco on the ground. Israeli drones, air defense, intelligence and military technology help Rabat counter Polisario, the Algeria backed armed movement seeking independence for Western Sahara.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Morocco gets something money alone cannot buy: recognition. In 2023, Israel recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, one of Rabat’s top foreign policy priorities.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Israel is taking its defense ties with Morocco into the open. Its Defense Ministry opened a national pavilion at Marrakech Air Show for the first time, with eight firms including Elbit, IAI and Rafael.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If all obligations were clear from the start, why is Turkey only now explaining that it has no obligation to fight in Yemen? Or did Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan fail to agree on their roles and then have to redefine the Mecca Pact?

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Türkiye says it will not send troops into Yemen to fight alongside Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says the Mecca Pact is defensive: Ankara will support Saudi Arabia if it is attacked, but the pact does not require Türkiye to launch attacks inside another country.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If Pakistan is helping Saudi Arabia fight the Houthis, why is Islamabad silent? Silence makes Pakistan look like it is avoiding its duty to an ally. If it has acted, saying so publicly would strengthen deterrence and credibility.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Pakistan may have directly entered the Yemen war. A senior Pakistani military official told the NYT that Pakistani jets have carried out strikes against the Houthis. Pakistan's military has not publicly confirmed the missions. Source: NYT.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If Hormuz loses its value, will Iran strike Syria? Every oil route that bypasses Hormuz weakens Tehran’s leverage. As Iraq shifts crude through Syria, alternative corridors could become sabotage targets aimed at forcing flows back through the strait.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The real race is no longer who controls Hormuz, but who can live without it. Iraq is building options through Syria and Turkey. If that trend spreads, the geography that made Hormuz a source of Iranian leverage will steadily erode.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Syria is benefiting from the Iran war. Iraqi oil could reach the Mediterranean through Syria’s Baniyas oil port, turning the country into a corridor that reduces Baghdad’s dependence on Hormuz while restoring Damascus’ strategic value.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Iraq is beginning to break Hormuz’s monopoly. Baghdad wants to expand crude trucking through Syria to Baniyas, potentially above 1,000 trucks a day, about 220,000 barrels. The deal is still being finalized. If more states avoid Hormuz, a darker future awaits Iran.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Why is getting tougher on Israel paying off for London? It helps preserve Arab ties and win back voters angry over Gaza, while the political cost stays low because most measures remain symbolic and avoid the core UK Israel relationship.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Israel forced the British Consulate in East Jerusalem to cease operating, but London is not fully leaving. Under a deal between the two sides, 20 UK diplomats will leave Israel, while seven will remain in the same building under the name “UK Mission, Jerusalem.”

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Britain had already warned about this threat. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review said defence personnel and data were attractive targets for hostile intelligence services and called for stronger counterintelligence against espionage and insider threats.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Royal Navy has its own Cold War precedent. The Portland Spy Ring exposed Soviet penetration of British naval secrets. Harry Houghton passed 99 secret documents in just 11 months in 1952, including a Naval Intelligence manual.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Another warning came from inside NATO. In 2008, British Army interpreter Daniel James was sentenced to 10 years for trying to pass information to an Iranian officer in Kabul while serving close to NATO commander General David Richards.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Britain has seen this before. Former soldier Daniel Khalife was convicted in 2024 of spying for Iran after collecting military material and information on British personnel. In February 2025, he was sentenced to 14 years and 3 months in prison.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Britain has arrested a sailor accused of spying from inside the Royal Navy. Teddy Young, 24, was charged with allegedly obtaining protected information and preparing to disclose it for the benefit of a foreign power. The country involved has not been named.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Saudi Arabia is recruiting mercenaries across the Middle East because it failed to build a real coalition. Riyadh relies on Yemeni forces, seeks help from Turkey and Pakistan, and reportedly wants Syrian troops. If the Mecca Alliance works, why keep looking?

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Nicolas Maduro is already the past. The former Venezuelan president now mainly faces prosecution. Unlike Hugo Chavez, Maduro never had comparable mass appeal and increasingly relied on repression to stay in power. Venezuela’s future is turning toward Maria Corina Machado.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If Oct. 7 was an “Israeli false flag,” why did Hamas plan it, carry it out, take hostages back to Gaza and claim responsibility? Israel’s slow response raises serious questions. But moving from security failure to “false flag” remains an evidentiary leap.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Tucker Carlson is turning an old Charlie Kirk question into a far bigger Oct. 7 claim: an “Israeli false flag.” Kirk had questioned a possible “stand down” order, but he himself stopped short of saying Netanyahu knew the attack was coming.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Drones hit two merchant ships inside Bulgaria’s Black Sea EEZ on Oct. 6, sinking one and leaving 10 crew missing. The second ship caught fire, with 18 rescued. Bulgaria has not identified who operated the drones.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Latvia may expel a Russian journalist who condemned Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Leonid Ragozin, a former BBC journalist living there for over a decade, now faces persona non grata proceedings over views Riga says serve Russian interests.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Why is Beijing speaking out over a suspected plague case in Siberia? China says it maintains close exchanges and cooperation with Russia on infectious disease control, including plague. Russia still says no plague case has been confirmed in Irkutsk. Sources: China MFA, WHO.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NATO territory was breached from Belarus. On Oct. 6, masked men crossed into Latvia, damaged a control box and stole 2 cameras. Hours earlier, armed escorts threatened Latvian soldiers while pushing at least 20 migrants toward the border.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Saudi money can assemble an alliance. What Riyadh has not proved is whether that money can make Saudi the rule setter rather than the financier of Turkish and Pakistani power.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The U.S. warned Americans in Russia to leave immediately amid plague concerns in Irkutsk. The embassy is tracking reports of a suspected fatal pneumonic plague case and hospital quarantines. Russia says no plague case is confirmed. Source: U.S. Embassy

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Qatar has hosted a Turkish military base since the mid 2010s. During the 2017 blockade, Saudi Arabia demanded that Doha shut it down. Nine years later, Saudi itself is reportedly considering hosting Turkish troops.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

How desperate has Saudi Arabia become? In 2017, Riyadh said Saudi Arabia neither needed nor could accept a Turkish military base. Nine years later, it is reportedly preparing a base to host Turkish troops.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Saudi Arabia may open the door to a Turkish military base, reversing its 2017 rejection. Betul Usta of pro Erdogan newspaper Sabah cites insider sources saying Riyadh is preparing a site, but Ankara has not decided. No official confirmation yet.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Egypt’s 1975 nationality law considered a child born to an Egyptian father to be Egyptian even if born abroad. In 2004, the law was expanded to children of Egyptian mothers as well. Abdul El Sayed was born in Michigan in 1984 to an Egyptian father.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Opponents do not need to prove El Sayed lied. They only need voters to wonder: If this story is unclear, what else do they not know?

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The Mecca alliance increasingly shows Saudi Arabia paying the highest price. Riyadh needs security, while Turkey and Pakistan can turn protection into influence, contracts and political leverage. Is Saudi building an alliance, or buying protection?

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A U.S. Senate candidate twice described himself as an Egyptian citizen, but his campaign now says he never held Egyptian citizenship. Abdul El Sayed was born in Michigan to an Egyptian father. Dual citizenship would not bar him from running. His changing account is the issue.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Turkey’s parliament must still approve a Saudi deployment, but it is unlikely to be a major obstacle in Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian system. If Erdogan wants the deployment, rejection is unlikely. The real question is what he is calculating with Saudi Arabia.

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Control Threat @controlthreat.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Russia is still stretching itself from Europe to the Sahel. Africa Corps, the Russian force that replaced Wagner in Mali, just helped Bamako retake Kidal, a key Tuareg stronghold in its war with separatists and jihadists, even as Moscow pours huge resources into Ukraine.

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