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Cogs of War

@cogs0fwar.bsky.social
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Two decades ago, the Army designed fourteen systems that only had value as a complete set. Its eventual cancellation is still a lesson for today's biggest acquisition bets. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Unhedgeable Bet: What the Future Combat Systems Can Teach Us About Acquisition
The Pentagon describes Golden Dome for America as a “system of systems,” an integrated air and missile defense architecture that combines space-based
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Allies want their own defense tech, sovereign industry, and data. NATO's transformation leader explains how the alliance is preparing to fight modern wars, as one. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Weapons reviews often can't reach a verdict until the system is finished and tested. What if instead, the reviewers were present while it was being designed? warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Winning by the Rules: Optimizing Weapons Reviews in the Age of Technological Innovation
We spare the reader another detailed story from Ukraine to establish the now-familiar point that battlefield technology changes faster than militaries can
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
American firms backed by federal dollars abide by U.S. governance rules. Foreign firms that receive the same support don't have to. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Washington's Foreign Equity Bets Need Better Governance
What do a rare earth mine in Brazil and a graphite mine in Mozambique have in common? Both have received significant United States government funding. The
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Army built its first permanent multi-domain operations command to prepare to fight across land, air, sea, cyber, and space on NATO's eastern flank. Its commander shares their progress. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
An Army General Talks Fusing Sensors and Shooters on the Eastern Flank
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brig. Gen. Steven P. Carpenter, the commanding general of Multi-Domain Command - Europe, the U.S. Army's
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Our Arsenal of Innovation series, celebrating wartime innovation, is complete. Readers can pick their favorites, with cash prizes for the top five. Voting happens exclusively through our free newsletter. Subscribe by Monday to take part: warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war-...
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Cogs of War Newsletter Sign-Up
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Data centers in orbit, solar power beamed to Earth, and hundreds of thousands of satellites. Three experts discuss the origins of the boom and how to sustain it. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Nuclear warheads typically take years to engineer. A flight test vehicle designed by AI and 3D printed hints at a faster model for future systems. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
This Is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Flight Test Vehicle
For decades, the United States’ nuclear weapons enterprise has wrestled with an institutional paradox. On one hand is the imperative to make the complex
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Pentagon action officers do functionally the same job as their predecessors decades before. As leaders demand more speed, where should and shouldn't automation fit in? warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Automating the Action Officer: Between Bureaucracy and Technology
If there is a revolution brewing in the automation of white-collar work, you wouldn’t know it at the Pentagon. Here, the typical action officers, staff
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The usual suspects behind Navy maintenance delays are well known. Far less examined is how the Navy contracts for private-sector repair work at its own public shipyards. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Tyranny of Shipyard Cost-Plus Contracting
As a naval shipyard commander, my mandate from Navy leadership is straightforward: return warships to the fleet as quickly as possible. Neither my
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
American troops once had to choose between protection and mobility. Kevlar's accidental discovery helped end that tradeoff. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Strategic Fiber of America: Kevlar’s Impact on Warfighters
Editor’s note: This is the tenth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
European states depend on foreign firms for more than 80 percent of their critical digital products, services, and infrastructure. Subsidies alone will never close that gap. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
European Resilience in Digital Infrastructure: The Changing Nature of State-Business Relations
As the war in Ukraine progressed, Russian strikes increasingly degraded Ukraine’s terrestrial communications infrastructure, steadily deepening Kyiv’s
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
A test pilot's instinct is to stop for surprising machine behavior. Commanding an agentic aircraft requires a manual for a new skill: judging whether an autonomous surprise is sound or an error. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
A Rulebook for Surprises: Commanding Autonomous Aircraft
My greatest challenge while flight testing collaborative combat aircraft was not troubleshooting errors at high speed in the cockpit. It was when, in a
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The quantum race is really several races at once: breaking encryption, enhancing sensing, and changing computing’s economics. Three industry leaders joined the show to discuss what's coming. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The defense debate is consumed by weapons and mass. One of the earliest movers in AI-powered drones believes the real gap is in autonomy and military intelligence. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Betting on Autonomous Aircraft
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brandon Tseng, the co-founder and president of Shield AI and a former Navy SEAL, whose company builds the
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Electrotech has become the foundation of military power, from drones to AI and manufacturing. Yet Washington is strangling that same industrial base it will need to compete. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
War: Watt Is It Good For?
Military analysts are captivated by how the material nature of war is transforming in Ukraine. Unmanned systems have captured Russian infantry units,
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Logistics ships will likely be among the first targets in a Pacific war. Three veteran defense tech leaders discuss how autonomy, scale, and predictive supply are reshaping modern logistics. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
In the War of 1812, faulty muskets pitted the government against its contractors. The push for higher standards gave Blanchard's lathe its opening, reshaping American manufacturing. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
What America Learned About Democracy When It Gained Stealth
Editor’s note: This is the seventh article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
A memory shortage is pushing Western tech firms toward a Chinese military-designated supplier. Buying cheap memory now hands Beijing lasting leverage over the supply. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The True Cost of Cheap Chips
Given the relentless demand for computing power, electronic components are in scarce supply. Prices for certain memory chips, known as DRAM, have surged
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Nuclear submarines and power plants reshaped the twentieth century. Both trace back to one stubborn Navy captain who could not take no for an answer. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Hyman Rickover and the Birth of Nuclear Power
Editor’s note: This is the eighth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Federal research dollars once defined the technological frontier. Our infographic traces how that leadership passed to industry across seven decades. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Who Pays for America’s Research and Development?
When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the U.S. government was the unrivaled patron of American science. It funded nearly two-thirds of the
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Stealth was among the most closely held secrets of the Cold War. That secrecy tested the balance between national security and democratic accountability. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
What America Learned About Democracy When It Gained Stealth
Editor’s note: This is the seventh article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
New entrants promised to escape the politics that ossified traditional defense procurement. The subsidies aligning them with statehouses may unintentionally deliver those same politics. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Arsenal and the Statehouse: New Defense Firms, Venture Capital and State Industrial Policy
When Anduril announced a $910 million drone production facility in Ohio, it was not politics as usual. The main message came from Ohio’s governor, Mike
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The Defense Department is pushing to reform acquisition on several fronts at once. What's changed, and what's to come? Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Protecting American frontier labs from theft is a national security interest. Protecting them from open-source competition is not. How can the U.S. government create a durable policy that distinguishes between the two? warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
How to Stop China from Freeriding on American AI
The release of the Chinese open-weight AI model Kimi K3 has compressed a year’s worth of unresolved AI policy debate into a single news cycle. On July 21,
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The U.S. government is worried about complex chip-making systems falling into China's hands. Even if they do, owning the hardware is not the same as knowing how to build it. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
ASML's Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography and the Limits of Reverse Engineering in China
In June, the U.S. Department of Commerce informed the Dutch company ASML that it suspects one of its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines has reached
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
High-octane fuel was first a niche product with few buyers. A decade later, it was deciding the Battle of Britain, all because one American pilot-engineer spent years advocating for it. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Octane Revolution: How Jimmy Doolittle Catalyzed a Wartime Industry
Editor’s note: This is the sixth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The most advanced semiconductors in the world roll off Taiwanese lines every day. Yet the island's military is still encouraging its services to adopt AI tools. warontherocks.com/2026/07/taiw...
warontherocks.com
Taiwan’s Tech Hurdles Threaten Military Capability and Potential Coalition Defense
Taiwan produces the world’s most advanced semiconductors, yet the island’s own military is only in the opening stages of adopting artificial intelligence
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
While skeptics say an independent AI regulator would be captured, the June Mythos episode shows that without one, outcomes are shaped by personality and political pressure. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
America Needs an Off-Ramp Between Doing Nothing and Shutting AI Down
For 18 days in June, two of America’s most capable AI models went dark worldwide, not for technical or business reasons, but because the U.S. government
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
An army marches on its stomach, but in World War II it began to march on mobile refrigeration. A self-taught mechanic helped build the cold chain that let the Allies fight on every front. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The King of Cool: Mobile Refrigeration and the Remaking of Global Logistics
Editor’s note: This is the fifth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Restoring U.S. critical minerals capacity is a defense priority. These industry leaders explain the capital and labor problems they face and how government can catalyze, not merely replace, private investment. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The U.S. government is treating cryptography, AI, networks, sensing, and supply chain as five separate problems. All five will be affected by a quantum breakthrough. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Before Q-Day: The Race to Quantum First
Somewhere, a hard drive is filling up with secrets no one can read yet, and its owner is waiting for the machine that opens them all at once. On March 30,
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Before World War II, a blood transfusion meant that the donor and patient were in the same room. This inventor was the first to see blood as a supply that could be shipped across an ocean in bulk. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Blood Bank and the Logistics of Wartime Medicine
Before the twentieth century gave armies antibiotics, the leading killer of American soldiers in wartime was neither enemy fire nor shrapnel. Two-thirds
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
From adversary capital to equity stakes and sourcing restrictions, a look for the defense industry at where the House and Senate Fiscal Year 2027 defense bills line up and where they split. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Reading through the Lines of the FY2027 NDAA
The relationship between Congress and the Pentagon over the past year has been marked by public disagreements and frustrations over lawmakers’ concerns
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
A grid of nylon webbing, sewn across a new generation of packs and vests, gave Global War on Terror soldiers a load built around their bodies and missions. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
MOLLE, PALS, and the Empty Loops of America’s Civil-Military Divide
Editor’s note: This is the third article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
America's research base is the envy of allies. Translating that into warfighting capability is a challenge Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The White House issued two sweeping AI directives in June. The funding needed to execute them may have already been spent. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Pentagon’s AI Strategy Has a Funding Problem
In the span of two weeks, the White House issued two of the most ambitious artificial intelligence directives in American history. On June 2, President
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The most-produced American bomber of WWII flew on a wing that credentialed engineers initially struggled to explain. Its designer was a self-taught freelancer from Texas. warontherocks.com/2026/07/the-...
warontherocks.com
The Davis Wing, the B-24 Liberator, and the Self-Made Bet That Paid Off
The most produced American military aircraft of World War II was not a small fighter, a trainer, or a simple utility airplane — it was a complex
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
A sovereign data center seems like control. Yet redundancy and dispersion are more likely to keep systems running. warontherocks.com/2026/07/gath...
warontherocks.com
Gathering Clouds: Building Digital Strategic Depth in the Compute Age
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have exposed a strategic reality that military planners are only beginning to confront: In a data-centric age,
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Engineers at Texas Instruments in 1958 could not have imagined how their science would reshape the modern economy — they were first focused on solving technical problems for the Air Force. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Integrated Circuit and the Future of AI Leadership
Editor’s note: This is the first article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Incremental upgrades have kept Trojan Spirit alive and useful for decades. That may not be enough to keep it relevant in the future. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Trojan Spirit, the Army’s Intelligence Backbone, Needs a Successor
In 1990, the idea that deployed commanders could access the latest intelligence from three-letter agencies in the middle of nowhere was radical. But the
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The domestic drone industrial base can be hard to visualize. Our staff mapped the key American players across every major quadcopter component. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
At a Glance: American Quadcopter Component Manufacturing
The extent of China's drone dominance — and how to decouple from it — has long been a source of debate and anxiety in Washington. Last month, the Wall
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Canada is critical to a more robust American defense industrial base. Washington is destroying the political conditions enabling that cooperation. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The Defense Industrial Alliance Washington Is Throwing Away
As the relationship between the United States and Canada continues to degrade, it now comes at the expense of each country’s industrial security. Last
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
As Washington works to expand rare earth processing capacity, it may be reaching for the wrong tools. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
The U.S. Navy’s Subsea Rare Earth Vulnerability
The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine is the next generation of American nuclear deterrence. Twelve of these boats will replace the aging
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
A year of writing and thinking about defense technology has shown there are no wonder weapons or perfect strategies — only trade-offs worth examining closely. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Cogs of War Turns One
A mentor of mine, a superb scholar, once told me that good defense analysis starts with a trade-off. The classic example is combined arms doctrine, which
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Many acquisition wargames return to the same answer: buy more, stock more, and secure more resources and weapons. Yet wargaming's real value to the Pentagon and industry lies well past it. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Wargaming for Improved Acquisition: What Does It Take?
A few months ago, I attended a panel discussion for a wargame simulating rapid industrial mobilization for armed conflict. Conducted by a leading
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The Pentagon has embraced predictive tools for battlefield operations. Yet its approach to predicting a pipe failure before it floods a barracks is still largely a spreadsheet. warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
warontherocks.com
Dusting a Dirt Road: How The United States Can Break the Cycle of Failing Military Infrastructure
Winter Storm Uri ripped through Texas in January 2021. The frigid temperatures froze pipes, which then burst and caused flooding in aging barracks at Fort
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Defense modernization requires both the Hill and the Pentagon to be all in. Reps. Rob Wittman and Pat Ryan join the show to talk about bipartisan legislation, appropriations, and competing with China. Listen here: pod.link/1818133762/e...
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
The U.S. has spent billions building frontier AI models. Chinese labs have spent just thousands learning from them. warontherocks.com/2026/06/the-...
warontherocks.com
The Pentagon's AI Edge Is Being Distilled Away
Adversaries do not need to breach the Pentagon’s systems: They only need to harvest the logic of the publicly released frontier AI models that underpin
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Cogs of War @cogs0fwar.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
While Washington is still reading Beijing's AI 2017 plan, the firms that survived China's domestic knife fight are now shaping the foundation layer of global AI development. warontherocks.com/2026/06/forg...
warontherocks.com
Forged in a Knife Fight: China's Brutal Domestic AI Competition
China’s plan to become a world leader in AI by 2030 is a fixture of practically every Congressional briefing and expert commentary on Beijing’s AI
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