iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

We estimate heat-stress labor impacts at $41 per ton (90% CI $1-$108). This places it second behind mortality in our set of SCC damages. Our estimate is also *remarkably* similar to "labor disutility" costs by Rode et al., using a completely different approach. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Introducing labor shocks into the GTAP computable general equilibrium model produces economic damage functions allowing for equilibrium adjustments in production, consumption and trade. Hot and humid regions heavily reliant on agriculture are most severely affected.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Many regions already experience substantial heat stress during parts of the year. Climate change increases the duration and intensity of these dangerously hot periods. The intra-annual manufacturing labor shocks for select regions and multiple warming levels are shown here.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Working conditions matter for heat stress. We characterize job-specific productivity losses for 4 labor types in 7 sectors in 160 regions based on AC penetration, outdoor exposure, and strenuousness. Construction and ag are particularly exposed because they typically involve heavy outdoor labor

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Biggest contribution is developing a brand new damage module on the labor productivity impacts of growing heat stress. We use wet bulb globe temperature to account for both heat and humidity changes and 2 impact functions (ISO and Lancet) to capture highly non-linear labor productivity effects

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

No fancy AI agent can every replace this bad boi

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Thank you to my state, California, for a sensible climate policy that is gradually shifting our energy system to less polluting, climate-friendly technologies all while returning funds to rate-payers. My chunk of the cap and invest program lowers my annual gas and electric bill by about 6%

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Very interesting paper teasing out the nuances of flood risk distribution in the US using an incredible individual-level dataset. Documents a huge concentration of flood risk among the very highest income group - lots of wealthy people enjoying the coast and river views from their second homes.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Things I learned today - language in the Clean Air Act explicitly defines "air pollutant" to include anything with adverse effects on weather and climate www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

Shifting-baselines in action www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Also, h/t xkcd: xkcd.com/1321/

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Check out our paper on ecological costs of climate change - we have a three (!) good utility function . Not unheard of in economics. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Was looking at EPA's impact assessment of the GHG powerplant regulation repeal today. Truly Kafkaesque. EPA simply asserts that the costs of the repeal (i.e. higher GHG emissions) are "too uncertain" and therefore the net-benefits of repeal are lower compliance costs www.epa.gov/system/files...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

The paper walks through a simple illustration using an information spectrum constructed from a forced Lorenz model and two different decision contexts - a short-term "insurance decision" and a long-term "infrastructure decision"

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

We propose operationalizing VOI for climate risk using an information spectrum, that places different information states on a continuum from simple to complex. The value of different information states can be evaluated relative to each other. (But not relative to "truth", which is unknowable)

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

A VOI approach provides a broad framework for quantifying the value of new climate information to a particular decision-maker. Essentially it boils down to the change in the expected value of the decision made under the new vs the old climate information

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

EPA's 111 power plant rules reduce emissions at low cost, primarily through the retirement of coal capacity, with correspondingly large improvements in air quality, in addition to the climate benefits

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Pacific Palisades is one of the highest concentrations of exposure for the CA FAIR plan, with $5.8 billion in underwriting within a 7 mile radius. As of March, the program was "one event away from a large assessment" on insurers and CA policy holders. www.eenews.net/articles/cal...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

This "Synthetic SCC" distribution integrates both parametric and structural uncertainties. Our 2020 SCC distribution has a median of $185 per ton CO2, a mean of $283 and a 95th percentile of $874 - higher than the large majority of government estimates

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

This procedure is essentially a structured re-weighting of the 1823 SCC distributions from the literature. Papers integrating elements that are relatively under-sampled compared to expert assessment and that contribute meaningfully to SCC variance will receive greater weight

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

We also ask experts about their confidence in studies using different model structures to estimate the SCC. Translating responses into probabilities, we see a substantial under-sampling of these alternate structures in the published literature, relative to expert assessment.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Experts attribute the perceived downward bias in published SCCs to a range of factors. Discounting parameters, underestimated damages, under-representation of growth rate damages, and limited substitutability of climate impacts with consumption are notable.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

The vast majority of respondents believe published SCC values to be downward biased. The average "best-guess" SCC ($142 per ton CO2) is more than twice their literature estimate ($60 per ton). Experts substantially underestimate published SCC, at least compared to our findings.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

We also analyze SCC variation in a multi-variate setting, looking at relative changes in the SCC as a function of model structure. This summarizes information from the large body of work adding richness to earlier SCC models in the Earth system, uncertainties, impacts and representation of utility

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Our rich set of covariates allows us to illustrate how the SCC distribution shifts under different model structures and parameter values. Note important roles for persistent or growth-rate damages, Earth system modeling, and the discount rate.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

For an informed take on the risks of crypto, Chapter 8 of the 2023 Economic Report of the President is a good start. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u... With the most epic burn of all chapter titles: "Digital Assets: Relearning Economic Principles" and this fantastic list of sub-headings:

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

The "Modal Pathway" in our model of the coupled climate-social system had peak emissions in the early 2030s, so a pre-2030 peak would be beating our forecast by several years www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 24/09/2024

This world is also rife with appalling conflicts of interests

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/09/2024

This paper by Eli Fenichel and colleagues makes the point clearly. I use this figure in my classes www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

This "Synthetic SCC" distribution integrates both parametric and structural uncertainties in SCC estimates. Our 2020 SCC distribution has a median of $185 per ton CO2, a mean of $284 and a 95th percentile of $874. Mean values are higher than government estimates.

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 13/06/2024

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/03/2024

Under reasonable parameterizations, this could have a large effect, increasing the value of environmental goods by several times over 50 years, or substantially more if environmental quality is declining

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/03/2024

We expect future growth in consumption goods over time but the quantity of environmental goods is stagnant, if not declining. If the marginal value of consumption declines and environmental goods are imperfectly substitutable, their relative value will increase over time

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/03/2024

CEA watch party last year - a great speech and fantastic night

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/01/2024

And finally on Sunday morning I'm excited to discuss a paper by @bprest.bsky.social and coauthors that implements income weighting in the new Circular A4 in EPA's new framework for the SCC, part of an exciting session on Climate Policy www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/01/2024

First thing Saturday morning I'll be presenting new work joint with many amazing coauthors on the social cost of carbon distribution accounting for structural uncertainties. Part of an exciting session on new approaches to SCC estimation www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/01/2024

Friday afternoon I'll be speaking on this panel on Climate Risks. I'm planning to bring some lessons about quantifying physical climate risks from some discussions at AGU, the big geoscience conference I attended a few weeks ago www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/01/2024

Bright and early tomorrow morning I'll be on a panel discussion with some very exciting people about what economics can contribute to policy debates today www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...,

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 29/12/2023

Supplementary Figure 9 has price increases by warming level. This subsequent paper also looked at the labor impacts of warming in the agriculture (in addition to yield), which are substantial in some regions: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

In the final rule, EPA finds net benefits of $97 billion, driven largely by climate benefits. To me, this both highlights the importance of continuing to improve our ability to quantify climate damages, and the potential for more ambitious climate policy to deliver social net benefits

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 17/11/2023

The discussion of distributional analysis is also substantially expanded. Under the revised A4, agencies will have the option of accounting for differing welfare effects across income groups in their primary estimate, using an income elasticity of 1.4

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 22/09/2023

Last week, the Council of Economic Advisers hosted a roundtable discussion on Climate Risk Modeling - read more here: www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 01/09/2023

Handing the baton of climate and environment policy at the Council of Economic Advisers to Kyle Meng - couldn't be in better hands!

Two people smiling at the camera in a long hallway with brass chandeliers passing a book and shaking hands

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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 21/08/2023

Kyle Meng from UC Santa Barbara joined the Council of Economic Advisors today to work on climate, energy and environmental policy. Great news for CEA, Kyle, the country, and me for the next two weeks!

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