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Caroline Holmes

@climatecaroline.bsky.social

163 followers 70 following 9 posts

Scientist at @bas.ac.uk ; all things Antarctic sea ice and climate.

Posts Replies Media

Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Defy anywhere to outdo the penguin christmas jumper selection at the @bas.ac.uk christmas lunch 🐧❄️🎄

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Evening hand-mend to get some more life out of my favourite jeans! #reuse 👖🪡

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Reposted by Caroline Holmes

Richard Davy @davyclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

The first images coming in from Sentinel 1C! With these first examples over Svalbard offering a glimpse of the boon it will be for sea ice monitoring and process understanding www.esa.int/Applications...

esa.int

Sentinel-1C captures first radar images

Less than a week after its launch, the Copernicus Sentinel-1C satellite has delivered its first radar images of Earth – offering a glimpse into its capabilities for environmental monitoring. These ini...

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Reposted by Caroline Holmes

Peter T Fretwell @ptfretwell.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

At the start of the emperor penguin chick fledging season five colonies have already been affected by early sea ice breakup. The purple dots below show which ones. Not as bad as the last two years, but worse than average.

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Reposted by Caroline Holmes

Keith Makinson @keithmakinson.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

This is oceanography the hard way. Before any instruments or samplers are deployed, we hot water drill an access hole through several hundred metres of ice shelf. Don't dilly-dally though, freezing closes the hole in a day or two.

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Amazing- congratulations! (I have, of course, ordered two.)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

- There's lots of work still to do to understand how bad/good these models are! In particular, that 'straight line' is a simple measure and a small part of the story; the exact way in which sea ice has changed still looks quite different between models and observations. (6/6)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

- That could be good news for our understanding but bad news for the future; models show rapid sea ice declines! BUT ⚠️... (5/6)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

- We showed, based on 'linear trends' alone (i.e. putting a straight line through the time series of sea ice), we can no longer conclude that models are 'wrong' at representing trends IF we consider the longest time series available (45 years) (4/6)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

- But in the last few years sea ice has plummeted 📉(remember those headlines last July/August); maybe those models weren't too bad after all? (3/6)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

- The general consensus is that coupled climate models are pretty 👎 at representing Antarctic sea ice 🌊❄️. One reason (of many!) for this is that they all showed it decreasing over the period when satellite data showed it increasing (i.e. until about 10 years ago) (2/6)

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Caroline Holmes @climatecaroline.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Hi Bluesky! We have a paper out today in The Cryosphere: doi.org/10.5194/tc-1... about Antarctic sea ice trends in observations and climate models (+huge thanks to co-authors, not on BlueSky) (thread: 1/6)

doi.org

Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss

Abstract. Most climate models do not reproduce the 1979–2014 increase in Antarctic sea ice cover. This was a contributing factor in successive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports allocat...

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